Accurately forecasting the weather is an important task, as many real-world processes and decisions depend on future meteorological conditions. The NeurIPS 2022 challenge entitled Weather4cast poses the problem of predicting rainfall events for the next eight hours given the preceding hour of satellite observations as a context. Motivated by the recent success of transformer-based architectures in computer vision, we implement and propose two methodologies based on this architecture to tackle this challenge. We find that ensembling different transformers with some baseline models achieves the best performance we could measure on the unseen test data. Our approach has been ranked 3rd in the competition.

Accurate and timely rain prediction is crucial for decision making and is also a challenging task. This paper presents a solution which won the 2 nd prize in the Weather4cast 2022 NeurIPS competition using 3D U-Nets and EarthFormers for 8-hour probabilistic rain prediction based on multi-band satellite images. The spatial context effect of the input satellite image has been deeply explored and optimal context range has been found. Based on the imbalanced rain distribution, we trained multiple models with different loss functions. To further improve the model performance, multi-model ensemble and threshold optimization were used to produce the final probabilistic rain prediction. Experiment results and leaderboard scores demonstrate that optimal spatial context, combined loss function, multi-model ensemble, and threshold optimization all provide modest model gain. A permutation test was used to analyze the effect of each satellite band on rain prediction, and results show that satellite bands signifying cloudtop phase (8.7 um) and cloud-top height (10.8 and 13.4 um) are the best predictors for rain prediction. The source code is available at https://github.com/bugsuse/weather4cast-2022-stage2.

The short-term prediction of precipitation is critical in many areas of life. Recently, a large body of work was devoted to forecasting radar reflectivity images. The radar images are available only in areas with ground weather radars. Thus, we aim to predict high-resolution precipitation from lower-resolution satellite radiance images. A neural network called WeatherFusionNet is employed to predict severe rain up to eight hours in advance. WeatherFusionNet is a U-Net architecture that fuses three different ways to process the satellite data; predicting future satellite frames, extracting rain information from the current frames, and using the input sequence directly. Using the presented method, we achieved 1st place in the NeurIPS 2022 Weather4Cast Core challenge. The code and trained parameters are available at \url{https://github.com/Datalab-FIT-CTU/weather4cast-2022}.

This paper presents a solution to the Weather4cast 2022 Challenge Stage 2. The goal of the challenge is to forecast future high-resolution rainfall events obtained from ground radar using low-resolution multiband satellite images. We suggest a solution that performs data preprocessing appropriate to the challenge and then predicts rainfall movies using a novel RainUNet. RainUNet is a hierarchical U-shaped network with temporal-wise separable block (TS block) using a decoupled large kernel 3D convolution to improve the prediction performance. Various evaluation metrics show that our solution is effective compared to the baseline method. The source codes are available at https://github.com/jinyxp/Weather4cast-2022

Traditional weather forecasting relies on domain expertise and computationally intensive numerical simulation systems. Recently, with the development of a data-driven approach, weather forecasting based on deep learning has been receiving attention. Deep learning-based weather forecasting has made stunning progress, from various backbone studies using CNN, RNN, and Transformer to training strategies using weather observations datasets with auxiliary inputs. All of this progress has contributed to the field of weather forecasting; however, many elements and complex structures of deep learning models prevent us from reaching physical interpretations. This paper proposes a SImple baseline with a spatiotemporal context Aggregation Network (SIANet) that achieved state-of-the-art in 4 parts of 5 benchmarks of W4C22. This simple but efficient structure uses only satellite images and CNNs in an end-to-end fashion without using a multi-model ensemble or fine-tuning. This simplicity of SIANet can be used as a solid baseline that can be easily applied in weather forecasting using deep learning.

The Weather4Cast competition (hosted by NeurIPS 2022) required competitors to predict super-resolution rain movies in various regions of Europe when low-resolution satellite contexts covering wider regions are given. In this paper, we show that a general baseline 3D U-Net can be significantly improved with region-conditioned layers as well as orthogonality regularizations on 1x1x1 convolutional layers. Additionally, we facilitate the generalization with a bag of training strategies: mixup data augmentation, self-distillation, and feature-wise linear modulation (FiLM). Presented modifications outperform the baseline algorithms (3D U-Net) by up to 19.54% with less than 1% additional parameters, which won the 4th place in the core test leaderboard.

该卷包含来自机器学习挑战的选定贡献“发现玛雅人的奥秘”，该挑战在欧洲机器学习和数据库中知识发现的欧洲挑战赛曲目（ECML PKDD 2021）中提出。遥感大大加速了古代玛雅人森林地区的传统考古景观调查。典型的探索和发现尝试，除了关注整个古老的城市外，还集中在单个建筑物和结构上。最近，已经成功地尝试了使用机器学习来识别古代玛雅人定居点。这些尝试虽然相关，但却集中在狭窄的区域上，并依靠高质量的空中激光扫描（ALS）数据，该数据仅涵盖古代玛雅人曾经定居的地区的一小部分。另一方面，由欧洲航天局（ESA）哨兵任务制作的卫星图像数据很丰富，更重要的是公开。旨在通过执行不同类型的卫星图像（Sentinel-1和Sentinel-2和ALS）的集成图像细分来定位和识别古老的Maya架构（建筑物，Aguadas和平台）的“发现和识别古代玛雅体系结构（建筑物，Aguadas和平台）的挑战的“发现和识别古老的玛雅体系结构（建筑物，阿吉达斯和平台）的“发现玛雅的奥秘”的挑战， （LIDAR）数据。

能量供应和需求受到气象条件的影响。随着对可再生能源的需求增加，精确天气预报的相关性增加。能源提供者和决策者要求天气信息进行明智的选择，并根据业务目标建立最佳计划。由于最近应用于卫星图像的深度学习技术，使用遥感数据的天气预报也是主要进步的主题。本文通过基于U-Net的架构调查了荷兰沿海海洋元素的多个步骤框架预测。来自哥白尼观察计划的每小时数据在2年内跨过跨越2年的时间，用于培训模型并进行预测，包括季节性预测。我们提出了U-Net架构的变化，并使用剩余连接，并行卷积和不对称卷积进一步扩展了这一新颖模型，以便引入三种额外的架构。特别是，我们表明，配备有平行和不对称卷积的架构以及跳过连接优于其他三个讨论的模型。

提出了一个深度学习模型，以便在未来60分钟的五分钟时间分辨率下以闪电的形式出现。该模型基于反复横向的结构，该结构使其能够识别并预测对流的时空发展，包括雷暴细胞的运动，生长和衰变。预测是在固定网格上执行的，而无需使用风暴对象检测和跟踪。从瑞士和周围的区域收集的输入数据包括地面雷达数据，可见/红外卫星数据以及衍生的云产品，闪电检测，数值天气预测和数字高程模型数据。我们分析了不同的替代损失功能，班级加权策略和模型特征，为将来的研究提供了指南，以最佳地选择损失功能，并正确校准其模型的概率预测。基于这些分析，我们在这项研究中使用焦点损失，但得出结论，它仅在交叉熵方面提供了较小的好处，如果模型的重新校准不实用，这是一个可行的选择。该模型在60分钟的现有周期内实现了0.45的像素临界成功指数（CSI）为0.45，以预测8 km的闪电发生，范围从5分钟的CSI到5分钟的提前时间到CSI到CSI的0.32在A处。收货时间60分钟。

这里介绍了人工智能研究所（IARAI）组织的2022年Landslide4sense（L4S）竞赛的科学结果。竞争的目的是根据全球收集的卫星图像的大规模多个来源自动检测滑坡。 2022 L4S旨在促进有关使用卫星图像的语义分割任务的深度学习模型（DL）模型最新发展的跨学科研究。在过去的几年中，由于卷积神经网络（CNN）的发展，基于DL的模型已经达到了对图像解释的期望。本文的主要目的是介绍本次比赛中介绍的细节和表现最佳的算法。获胜的解决方案详细介绍了Swin Transformer，Segformer和U-NET等最先进的模型。还考虑了先进的机器学习技术和诸如硬采矿，自我培训和混合数据增强之类的策略。此外，我们描述了L4S基准数据集，以促进进一步的比较，并在线报告准确性评估的结果。可以在\ textIt {未来开发排行榜上访问数据，以供将来评估，\ url {https://www.iarai.ac.ac.at/landslide4sense/challenge/}，并邀请研究人员提交更多预测结果，评估准确性在他们的方法中，将它们与其他用户的方法进行比较，理想情况下，改善了本文报告的滑坡检测结果。

尽管有持续的改进，但降水预测仍然没有其他气象变量的准确和可靠。造成这种情况的一个主要因素是，几个影响降水分布和强度的关键过程出现在全球天气模型的解决规模以下。计算机视觉社区已经证明了生成的对抗网络（GAN）在超分辨率问题上取得了成功，即学习为粗图像添加精细的结构。 Leinonen等。 （2020年）先前使用GAN来产生重建的高分辨率大气场的集合，并给定较粗糙的输入数据。在本文中，我们证明了这种方法可以扩展到更具挑战性的问题，即通过使用高分辨率雷达测量值作为“地面真相”来提高天气预报模型中相对低分辨率输入的准确性和分辨率。神经网络必须学会添加分辨率和结构，同时考虑不可忽略的预测错误。我们表明，甘斯和vae-gan可以在创建高分辨率的空间相干降水图的同时，可以匹配最新的后处理方法的统计特性。我们的模型比较比较与像素和合并的CRP分数，功率谱信息和等级直方图（用于评估校准）的最佳现有缩减方法。我们测试了我们的模型，并表明它们在各种场景中的表现，包括大雨。

降水预测是一项重要的科学挑战，对社会产生广泛影响。从历史上看，这项挑战是使用数值天气预测（NWP）模型解决的，该模型基于基于物理的模拟。最近，许多作品提出了一种替代方法，使用端到端深度学习（DL）模型来替代基于物理的NWP。尽管这些DL方法显示出提高的性能和计算效率，但它们在长期预测中表现出局限性，并且缺乏NWP模型的解释性。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个混合NWP-DL工作流程，以填补独立NWP和DL方法之间的空白。在此工作流程下，NWP输出被馈入深层模型，该模型后处理数据以产生精致的降水预测。使用自动气象站（AWS）观测值作为地面真相标签，对深层模型进行了监督训练。这可以实现两全其美，甚至可以从NWP技术的未来改进中受益。为了促进朝这个方向进行研究，我们提出了一个专注于朝鲜半岛的新型数据集，该数据集称为KOMET（KOMEN（KOREA气象数据集），由NWP预测和AWS观察组成。对于NWP，我们使用全局数据同化和预测系统-KOREA集成模型（GDAPS-KIM）。

太阳能现在是历史上最便宜的电力形式。不幸的是，由于其变异性，显着提高栅格的太阳能的一部分仍然具有挑战性，这使得电力的供需平衡更加困难。虽然热发电机坡度 - 它们可以改变输出的最高速率 - 是有限的，太阳能的坡度基本上是无限的。因此，准确的近期太阳能预测或垂圈，对于提供预警来调整热发电机输出，以响应于太阳能变化来调整热发电机，以确保平衡供需。为了解决问题，本文开发了使用自我监督学习的丰富和易于使用的多光谱卫星数据的太阳能垂圈的一般模型。具体而言，我们使用卷积神经网络（CNN）和长短期内存网络（LSTM）开发深度自动回归模型，这些模型在多个位置训练全球培训，以预测最近推出的最近收集的时空数据的未来观察-R系列卫星。我们的模型估计了基于卫星观测的未来的太阳辐照度，我们向较小的场地特定的太阳能数据培训的回归模型提供，以提供近期太阳能光伏（PV）预测，其考虑了现场特征的特征。我们评估了我们在25个太阳能场所的不同覆盖区域和预测视野的方法，并表明我们的方法利用地面真理观察结果产生靠近模型的错误。

Automotive radar sensors provide valuable information for advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS). Radars can reliably estimate the distance to an object and the relative velocity, regardless of weather and light conditions. However, radar sensors suffer from low resolution and huge intra-class variations in the shape of objects. Exploiting the time information (e.g., multiple frames) has been shown to help to capture better the dynamics of objects and, therefore, the variation in the shape of objects. Most temporal radar object detectors use 3D convolutions to learn spatial and temporal information. However, these methods are often non-causal and unsuitable for real-time applications. This work presents RECORD, a new recurrent CNN architecture for online radar object detection. We propose an end-to-end trainable architecture mixing convolutions and ConvLSTMs to learn spatio-temporal dependencies between successive frames. Our model is causal and requires only the past information encoded in the memory of the ConvLSTMs to detect objects. Our experiments show such a method's relevance for detecting objects in different radar representations (range-Doppler, range-angle) and outperform state-of-the-art models on the ROD2021 and CARRADA datasets while being less computationally expensive. The code will be available soon.

In this paper, we present Pangu-Weather, a deep learning based system for fast and accurate global weather forecast. For this purpose, we establish a data-driven environment by downloading $43$ years of hourly global weather data from the 5th generation of ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data and train a few deep neural networks with about $256$ million parameters in total. The spatial resolution of forecast is $0.25^\circ\times0.25^\circ$, comparable to the ECMWF Integrated Forecast Systems (IFS). More importantly, for the first time, an AI-based method outperforms state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy (latitude-weighted RMSE and ACC) of all factors (e.g., geopotential, specific humidity, wind speed, temperature, etc.) and in all time ranges (from one hour to one week). There are two key strategies to improve the prediction accuracy: (i) designing a 3D Earth Specific Transformer (3DEST) architecture that formulates the height (pressure level) information into cubic data, and (ii) applying a hierarchical temporal aggregation algorithm to alleviate cumulative forecast errors. In deterministic forecast, Pangu-Weather shows great advantages for short to medium-range forecast (i.e., forecast time ranges from one hour to one week). Pangu-Weather supports a wide range of downstream forecast scenarios, including extreme weather forecast (e.g., tropical cyclone tracking) and large-member ensemble forecast in real-time. Pangu-Weather not only ends the debate on whether AI-based methods can surpass conventional NWP methods, but also reveals novel directions for improving deep learning weather forecast systems.

Deep learning-based weather prediction models have advanced significantly in recent years. However, data-driven models based on deep learning are difficult to apply to real-world applications because they are vulnerable to spatial-temporal shifts. A weather prediction task is especially susceptible to spatial-temporal shifts when the model is overfitted to locality and seasonality. In this paper, we propose a training strategy to make the weather prediction model robust to spatial-temporal shifts. We first analyze the effect of hyperparameters and augmentations of the existing training strategy on the spatial-temporal shift robustness of the model. Next, we propose an optimal combination of hyperparameters and augmentation based on the analysis results and a test-time augmentation. We performed all experiments on the W4C22 Transfer dataset and achieved the 1st performance.

卫星遥感提供了一种具有成本效益的概要洪水监测的解决方案，卫星衍生的洪水图为传统上使用的数值洪水淹没模型提供了一种计算有效的替代方法。尽管卫星碰巧涵盖正在进行的洪水事件时确实提供了及时的淹没信息，但它们受其时空分辨率的限制，因为它们在各种规模上动态监测洪水演变的能力。不断改善对新卫星数据源的访问以及大数据处理功能，就此问题的数据驱动解决方案而言，已经解锁了前所未有的可能性。具体而言，来自卫星的数据融合，例如哥白尼前哨，它们具有很高的空间和低时间分辨率，以及来自NASA SMAP和GPM任务的数据，它们的空间较低，但时间较高的时间分辨率可能会导致高分辨率的洪水淹没在A处的高分辨率洪水。每日规模。在这里，使用Sentinel-1合成孔径雷达和各种水文，地形和基于土地利用的预测因子衍生出的洪水淹没图对卷积神经网络进行了训练，以预测高分辨率的洪水泛滥概率图。使用Sentinel-1和Sentinel-2衍生的洪水面罩，评估了UNET和SEGNET模型架构的性能，分别具有95％的信心间隔。精确召回曲线（PR-AUC）曲线下的区域（AUC）被用作主要评估指标，这是由于二进制洪水映射问题中类固有的不平衡性质，最佳模型提供了PR-AUC 0.85。

由于其对人类生命，运输，粮食生产和能源管理的高度影响，因此在科学上研究了预测天气的问题。目前的运营预测模型基于物理学，并使用超级计算机来模拟大气预测，提前预测数小时和日期。更好的基于物理的预测需要改进模型本身，这可能是一个实质性的科学挑战，以及潜在的分辨率的改进，可以计算令人望而却步。基于神经网络的新出现的天气模型代表天气预报的范式转变：模型学习来自数据的所需变换，而不是依赖于手工编码的物理，并计算效率。然而，对于神经模型，每个额外的辐射时间都会构成大量挑战，因为它需要捕获更大的空间环境并增加预测的不确定性。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个神经网络，能够提前十二小时的大规模降水预测，并且从相同的大气状态开始，该模型能够比最先进的基于物理的模型更高的技能HRRR和HREF目前在美国大陆运营。可解释性分析加强了模型学会模拟先进物理原则的观察。这些结果代表了建立与神经网络有效预测的新范式的实质性步骤。

从传统上讲，地球系统（例如天气和气候）的预测依赖于具有复杂物理模型的数值模拟，因此在计算中既昂贵又对领域专业知识的需求既昂贵。在过去十年中时空地球观察数据的爆炸性增长中，应用深度学习（DL）的数据驱动模型表明了各种地球系统预测任务的潜力。尽管在其他领域取得了广泛的成功，但作为新兴DL架构的变压器在该领域的采用量有限。在本文中，我们提出了Earthformer，这是一种用于地球系统预测的时空变压器。 Earthformer基于一个通用，灵活和有效的时空注意块，名为Cuboid的注意力。这个想法是将数据分解为立方体，并平行应用立方体级别的自我注意力。这些立方体与全球矢量的集合进一步相关。我们对MovingMnist数据集和新提出的混沌N体MNIST数据集进行了实验，以验证Cuboid注意的有效性，并找出地球形式的最佳设计。关于降水现象和El Nino/Southern振荡（ENSO）预测的两个现实基准测试的实验表明，Earthformer实现了最新的性能。

不仅可以从大气数据中发现模式和见解，可以实现更准确的天气预报，但它也可以提供有价值的信息来帮助解决气候变化。Weather4cast是一种开放式竞争，旨在评估机器学习算法的能力，以预测未来的大气状态。在这里，我们将我们的第三次解决方案描述为Weather4cast。我们提出了一种新颖的改变U-Net，它结合了变形的AutoEncoder的能力，以考虑数据的概率性质，以u-net恢复细粒细节的能力。该解决方案是我们的第四次解决方案与许多常见的传播420的第四种解决方案的演变，表明其适用于巨大不同的域，例如天气和交通。