为了促进开发新模型以弥合机器和人类社会情报之间的差距，最近提议的婴儿直觉基准（Arxiv：2102.11938）提供了一系列任务，旨在评估代理商的目标和行动，即使是年轻的婴儿也表现出的表现，。在这里，我们根据层次的贝叶斯心理理论（HBTOM）提出了该基准的原则性贝叶斯解决方案。通过在代理目标和处置上包括层次的先验，对我们的HBTOM模型的推断几乎可以学习代理的效率和偏好，然后可以将其用于常识性的合理性判断，以判断有关后续代理行为。这种方法在大多数基准任务上实现了几乎完美的准确性，在产生可解释的人类的推论的同时，超过了深度学习和模仿学习基准，证明了结构化贝叶斯人的人类社会认知模型的优势。

为了实现对日常生活的人类常识，机器学习系统必须理解和理解环境中其他代理人的目标，偏好和行动。在他们的第一年的生命结束时，人类婴儿直观地实现了如此常识，这些认知成就为人类丰富而复杂地了解他人的心理状态。Can Machines可以实现更广泛的，致辞推理对人类婴儿这样的其他药剂吗？婴儿直觉的基准（围兜）挑战机器，以预测代理人行为的合理性，基于其行动的基本原因。由于BIB的内容和范式从发育认知科学中采用，因此BIB允许在人类和机器性能之间直接比较。尽管如此，最近提出的深度学习的机构推理模型未能表现出婴儿的推理，让围兜成为一个开放的挑战。

有效推论是一种数学框架，它起源于计算神经科学，作为大脑如何实现动作，感知和学习的理论。最近，已被证明是在不确定性下存在国家估算和控制问题的有希望的方法，以及一般的机器人和人工代理人的目标驱动行为的基础。在这里，我们审查了最先进的理论和对国家估计，控制，规划和学习的积极推断的实现;描述当前的成就，特别关注机器人。我们展示了相关实验，以适应，泛化和稳健性而言说明其潜力。此外，我们将这种方法与其他框架联系起来，并讨论其预期的利益和挑战：使用变分贝叶斯推理具有功能生物合理性的统一框架。

在复杂的协作任务上共同努力需要代理商协调他们的行为。在实际交互之前明确或完全执行此操作并不总是可能也不充分。代理人还需要不断了解他人的当前行动，并迅速适应自己的行为。在这里，我们调查我们称之为信仰共鸣的精神状态（意图，目标）的效率，自动协调过程如何导致协作的解决问题。我们为协作剂（HAICA）提出了分层有源推断的模型。它将高效的贝叶斯理论与基于预测处理和主动推断的感知动作系统相结合。通过让一个药物的推断精神状态影响另一个代理人的预测信念来实现信仰共振，从而实现了他自己的目标和意图。这样，推断的精神状态影响了代理人自己的任务行为，没有明确的协作推理。我们在超核域中实施和评估此模型，其中两个代理具有不同程度的信仰共振组合，以满足膳食订单。我们的结果表明，基于HAICA的代理商实现了与最近现有技术方法相当的团队表现，同时产生了更低的计算成本。我们还表明，信仰共振在环境中特别有益，代理商是对环境的不对称知识。结果表明，信仰共振和有效推断允许快速高效的代理协调，因此可以用作合作认知剂的结构块。

自由能原理及其必然的积极推论构成了一种生物启发的理论，该理论假设生物学作用保留在一个受限制的世界首选状态中，即它们最小化自由能。根据这一原则，生物学家学习了世界的生成模型和未来的计划行动，该模型将使代理保持稳态状态，以满足其偏好。该框架使自己在计算机中实现，因为它理解了使其计算负担得起的重要方面，例如变异推断和摊销计划。在这项工作中，我们研究了深度学习的工具，以设计和实现基于主动推断的人造代理，对自由能原理进行深入学习的呈现，调查工作与机器学习和主动推理领域相关，以及讨论实施过程中涉及的设计选择。该手稿探究了积极推理框架的新观点，将其理论方面扎根于更务实的事务中，为活跃推理的新手提供了实用指南，并为深度学习从业人员的起点提供了研究，以调查自由能源原则的实施。

The reinforcement learning paradigm is a popular way to address problems that have only limited environmental feedback, rather than correctly labeled examples, as is common in other machine learning contexts. While significant progress has been made to improve learning in a single task, the idea of transfer learning has only recently been applied to reinforcement learning tasks. The core idea of transfer is that experience gained in learning to perform one task can help improve learning performance in a related, but different, task. In this article we present a framework that classifies transfer learning methods in terms of their capabilities and goals, and then use it to survey the existing literature, as well as to suggest future directions for transfer learning work.

主动推断是建模生物学和人造药物的行为的概率框架，该框架源于最小化自由能的原理。近年来，该框架已成功地应用于各种情况下，其目标是最大程度地提高奖励，提供可比性，有时甚至是卓越的性能与替代方法。在本文中，我们通过演示如何以及何时进行主动推理代理执行最佳奖励的动作来阐明奖励最大化和主动推断之间的联系。确切地说，我们展示了主动推理为Bellman方程提供最佳解决方案的条件 - 这种公式是基于模型的增强学习和控制的几种方法。在部分观察到的马尔可夫决策过程中，标准的主动推理方案可以为计划视野1的最佳动作产生最佳动作，但不能超越。相比之下，最近开发的递归活跃推理方案（复杂的推理）可以在任何有限的颞范围内产生最佳作用。我们通过讨论主动推理和强化学习之间更广泛的关系来补充分析。

Adequately assigning credit to actions for future outcomes based on their contributions is a long-standing open challenge in Reinforcement Learning. The assumptions of the most commonly used credit assignment method are disadvantageous in tasks where the effects of decisions are not immediately evident. Furthermore, this method can only evaluate actions that have been selected by the agent, making it highly inefficient. Still, no alternative methods have been widely adopted in the field. Hindsight Credit Assignment is a promising, but still unexplored candidate, which aims to solve the problems of both long-term and counterfactual credit assignment. In this thesis, we empirically investigate Hindsight Credit Assignment to identify its main benefits, and key points to improve. Then, we apply it to factored state representations, and in particular to state representations based on the causal structure of the environment. In this setting, we propose a variant of Hindsight Credit Assignment that effectively exploits a given causal structure. We show that our modification greatly decreases the workload of Hindsight Credit Assignment, making it more efficient and enabling it to outperform the baseline credit assignment method on various tasks. This opens the way to other methods based on given or learned causal structures.

We advance a novel computational model of multi-agent, cooperative joint actions that is grounded in the cognitive framework of active inference. The model assumes that to solve a joint task, such as pressing together a red or blue button, two (or more) agents engage in a process of interactive inference. Each agent maintains probabilistic beliefs about the goal of the joint task (e.g., should we press the red or blue button?) and updates them by observing the other agent's movements, while in turn selecting movements that make his own intentions legible and easy to infer by the other agent (i.e., sensorimotor communication). Over time, the interactive inference aligns both the beliefs and the behavioral strategies of the agents, hence ensuring the success of the joint action. We exemplify the functioning of the model in two simulations. The first simulation illustrates a ''leaderless'' joint action. It shows that when two agents lack a strong preference about their joint task goal, they jointly infer it by observing each other's movements. In turn, this helps the interactive alignment of their beliefs and behavioral strategies. The second simulation illustrates a "leader-follower" joint action. It shows that when one agent ("leader") knows the true joint goal, it uses sensorimotor communication to help the other agent ("follower") infer it, even if doing this requires selecting a more costly individual plan. These simulations illustrate that interactive inference supports successful multi-agent joint actions and reproduces key cognitive and behavioral dynamics of "leaderless" and "leader-follower" joint actions observed in human-human experiments. In sum, interactive inference provides a cognitively inspired, formal framework to realize cooperative joint actions and consensus in multi-agent systems.

Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has renewed interest in building systems that learn and think like people. Many advances have come from using deep neural networks trained end-to-end in tasks such as object recognition, video games, and board games, achieving performance that equals or even beats humans in some respects. Despite their biological inspiration and performance achievements, these systems differ from human intelligence in crucial ways. We review progress in cognitive science suggesting that truly human-like learning and thinking machines will have to reach beyond current engineering trends in both what they learn, and how they learn it. Specifically, we argue that these machines should (a) build causal models of the world that support explanation and understanding, rather than merely solving pattern recognition problems; (b) ground learning in intuitive theories of physics and psychology, to support and enrich the knowledge that is learned; and (c) harness compositionality and learning-to-learn to rapidly acquire and generalize knowledge to new tasks and situations. We suggest concrete challenges and promising routes towards these goals that can combine the strengths of recent neural network advances with more structured cognitive models.

本文解决了逆增强学习（IRL）的问题 - 从观察其行为中推断出代理的奖励功能。 IRL可以为学徒学习提供可概括和紧凑的代表，并能够准确推断人的偏好以帮助他们。 ％并提供更准确的预测。但是，有效的IRL具有挑战性，因为许多奖励功能可以与观察到的行为兼容。我们专注于如何利用先前的强化学习（RL）经验，以使学习这些偏好更快，更高效。我们提出了IRL算法基础（通过样本中的连续功能意图推断行为获取行为），该算法利用多任务RL预培训和后继功能，使代理商可以为跨越可能的目标建立强大的基础，从而跨越可能的目标。给定的域。当仅接触一些专家演示以优化新颖目标时，代理商会使用其基础快速有效地推断奖励功能。我们的实验表明，我们的方法非常有效地推断和优化显示出奖励功能，从而准确地从少于100个轨迹中推断出奖励功能。

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) describes a process for inferring quantifiable metrics of structural condition, which can serve as input to support decisions on the operation and maintenance of infrastructure assets. Given the long lifespan of critical structures, this problem can be cast as a sequential decision making problem over prescribed horizons. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) offer a formal framework to solve the underlying optimal planning task. However, two issues can undermine the POMDP solutions. Firstly, the need for a model that can adequately describe the evolution of the structural condition under deterioration or corrective actions and, secondly, the non-trivial task of recovery of the observation process parameters from available monitoring data. Despite these potential challenges, the adopted POMDP models do not typically account for uncertainty on model parameters, leading to solutions which can be unrealistically confident. In this work, we address both key issues. We present a framework to estimate POMDP transition and observation model parameters directly from available data, via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) conditioned on actions. The MCMC inference estimates distributions of the involved model parameters. We then form and solve the POMDP problem by exploiting the inferred distributions, to derive solutions that are robust to model uncertainty. We successfully apply our approach on maintenance planning for railway track assets on the basis of a "fractal value" indicator, which is computed from actual railway monitoring data.

积极推断是复杂系统中的认知和行为的叙述，它在贝叶斯推论的理论地幔下举起动作，感知和学习。积极的推论已经看到学术研究中的应用越来越多，特别是在寻求模拟人类或动物行为的领域。虽然近年来，来自有效推理文献产生的一些代码已经用Python和Julia这样的开源语言编写，迄今为止，用于模拟活动推理代理的最流行的软件是SPM，Matlab库的DEM工具箱最初开发用于神经影像数据的统计分析和建模。因此，在纯粹的数字和科学学科的应用程序方面，表现出对积极推断的兴趣，因此为在开源科学计算语言中模拟了激活推论的通用，广泛可用的和用户友好的代码，这一切都表现为纯粹的数字以及跨科学学科的应用程序。像python。我们在这里呈现的Python包，Pymdp（参见https://github.com/fifer-active/pymdp）表示朝这个方向的重要一步：即，我们提供了用于模拟有源推断的第一个开源包，部分 - 可观察的马尔可夫决策过程或POMDPS。我们查看包的结构，并解释了模块化设计和定制等优点，同时提供沿着文本代码块，以便演示如何使用它以轻松地构建和运行主动推断过程。我们开发了PyMDP，以增加有效推理框架的可访问性和暴露于有多种纪律背景的研究人员，工程师和开发人员。本着开源软件的精神，我们也希望它在不断增长的积极推理界中产生新的创新，发展和合作。

我们提出了贝叶斯团队模仿学习者（BTIL），这是一种模仿学习算法，以模拟马尔可夫域中执行顺序任务的团队的行为。与现有的多机构模仿学习技术相反，BTIL明确模型并渗透了团队成员的时间变化的心理状态，从而从次优的团队合作的演示中实现了分散的团队政策的学习。此外，为了允许从小型数据集中进行样本和标签有效的政策学习，Btil采用了贝叶斯的角度，并且能够从半监督的示范中学习。我们证明并基准了BTIL在合成多代理任务以及人类代理团队工作的新型数据集上的性能。我们的实验表明，尽管团队成员（随时间变化且可能未对准）精神状态对其行为的影响，BTIL可以成功地从示威中学习团队政策。

语言是协调问题的强大解决方案：他们提供了稳定的，有关我们所说的单词如何对应于我们头脑中的信仰和意图的共同期望。然而，在变量和非静止社会环境中的语言使用需要语言表征来灵活：旧词在飞行中获取新的临时或合作伙伴特定含义。在本文中，我们介绍了柴（通过推理的连续分层适应），一个分层贝叶斯的协调理论和会议组织，旨在在这两个基本观察之间调和长期张力。我们认为，沟通的中央计算问题不仅仅是传输，如在经典配方中，而是在多个时间尺度上持续学习和适应。合作伙伴特定的共同点迅速出现在数型互动中的社会推论中，而社群范围内的社会公约是稳定的前锋，这些前锋已经抽象出与多个合作伙伴的互动。我们展示了新的实证数据，展示了我们的模型为多个现象提供了对先前账户挑战的计算基础：（1）与同一合作伙伴的重复互动的更有效的参考表达的融合（2）将合作伙伴特定的共同基础转移到陌生人，并（3）交际范围的影响最终会形成。

Humans have internal models of robots (like their physical capabilities), the world (like what will happen next), and their tasks (like a preferred goal). However, human internal models are not always perfect: for example, it is easy to underestimate a robot's inertia. Nevertheless, these models change and improve over time as humans gather more experience. Interestingly, robot actions influence what this experience is, and therefore influence how people's internal models change. In this work we take a step towards enabling robots to understand the influence they have, leverage it to better assist people, and help human models more quickly align with reality. Our key idea is to model the human's learning as a nonlinear dynamical system which evolves the human's internal model given new observations. We formulate a novel optimization problem to infer the human's learning dynamics from demonstrations that naturally exhibit human learning. We then formalize how robots can influence human learning by embedding the human's learning dynamics model into the robot planning problem. Although our formulations provide concrete problem statements, they are intractable to solve in full generality. We contribute an approximation that sacrifices the complexity of the human internal models we can represent, but enables robots to learn the nonlinear dynamics of these internal models. We evaluate our inference and planning methods in a suite of simulated environments and an in-person user study, where a 7DOF robotic arm teaches participants to be better teleoperators. While influencing human learning remains an open problem, our results demonstrate that this influence is possible and can be helpful in real human-robot interaction.

This paper surveys the eld of reinforcement learning from a computer-science perspective. It is written to be accessible to researchers familiar with machine learning. Both the historical basis of the eld and a broad selection of current work are summarized. Reinforcement learning is the problem faced by an agent that learns behavior through trial-and-error interactions with a dynamic environment. The work described here has a resemblance to work in psychology, but di ers considerably in the details and in the use of the word \reinforcement." The paper discusses central issues of reinforcement learning, including trading o exploration and exploitation, establishing the foundations of the eld via Markov decision theory, learning from delayed reinforcement, constructing empirical models to accelerate learning, making use of generalization and hierarchy, and coping with hidden state. It concludes with a survey of some implemented systems and an assessment of the practical utility of current methods for reinforcement learning.

我们考虑创建助手的问题，这些助手可以帮助代理人（通常是人类）解决新颖的顺序决策问题，假设代理人无法将奖励功能明确指定给助手。我们没有像目前的方法那样旨在自动化并代替代理人，而是赋予助手一个咨询角色，并将代理商作为主要决策者。困难是，我们必须考虑由代理商的限制或限制引起的潜在偏见，这可能导致其看似非理性地拒绝建议。为此，我们介绍了一种新颖的援助形式化，以模拟这些偏见，从而使助手推断和适应它们。然后，我们引入了一种计划助手建议的新方法，该方法可以扩展到大型决策问题。最后，我们通过实验表明我们的方法适应了这些代理偏见，并且比基于自动化的替代方案给代理带来了更高的累积奖励。

嘈杂的传感，不完美的控制和环境变化是许多现实世界机器人任务的定义特征。部分可观察到的马尔可夫决策过程（POMDP）提供了一个原则上的数学框架，用于建模和解决不确定性下的机器人决策和控制任务。在过去的十年中，它看到了许多成功的应用程序，涵盖了本地化和导航，搜索和跟踪，自动驾驶，多机器人系统，操纵和人类机器人交互。这项调查旨在弥合POMDP模型的开发与算法之间的差距，以及针对另一端的不同机器人决策任务的应用。它分析了这些任务的特征，并将它们与POMDP框架的数学和算法属性联系起来，以进行有效的建模和解决方案。对于从业者来说，调查提供了一些关键任务特征，以决定何时以及如何成功地将POMDP应用于机器人任务。对于POMDP算法设计师，该调查为将POMDP应用于机器人系统的独特挑战提供了新的见解，并指出了有希望的新方向进行进一步研究。

学习涉及时变和不断发展的系统动态的控制政策通常对主流强化学习算法构成了巨大的挑战。在大多数标准方法中，通常认为动作是一组刚性的，固定的选择，这些选择以预定义的方式顺序应用于状态空间。因此，在不诉诸于重大学习过程的情况下，学识渊博的政策缺乏适应动作集和动作的“行为”结果的能力。此外，标准行动表示和动作引起的状态过渡机制固有地限制了如何将强化学习应用于复杂的现实世界应用中，这主要是由于所得大的状态空间的棘手性以及缺乏概括的学术知识对国家空间未知部分的政策。本文提出了一个贝叶斯味的广义增强学习框架，首先建立参数动作模型的概念，以更好地应对不确定性和流体动作行为，然后将增强领域的概念作为物理启发的结构引入通过“极化体验颗粒颗粒建立） “维持在学习代理的工作记忆中。这些粒子有效地编码了以自组织方式随时间演变的动态学习体验。在强化领域之上，我们将进一步概括策略学习过程，以通过将过去的记忆视为具有隐式图结构来结合高级决策概念，在该结构中，过去的内存实例（或粒子）与决策之间的相似性相互联系。定义，因此，可以应用“关联记忆”原则来增强学习代理的世界模型。