This paper introduced key aspects of applying Machine Learning (ML) models, improved trading strategies, and the Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM) to optimize stock option forecasting and trading results. It presented the findings of the follow-up project of the research "Application of Convolutional Neural Networks with Quasi-Reversibility Method Results for Option Forecasting". First, the project included an application of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to provide a novel way of predicting stock option trends. Additionally, it examined the dependence of the ML models by evaluating the experimental method of combining multiple ML models to improve prediction results and decision-making. Lastly, two improved trading strategies and simulated investing results were presented. The Binomial Asset Pricing Model with discrete time stochastic process analysis and portfolio hedging was applied and suggested an optimized investment expectation. These results can be utilized in real-life trading strategies to optimize stock option investment results based on historical data.

This paper presents a novel way to apply mathematical finance and machine learning (ML) to forecast stock options prices. Following results from the paper Quasi-Reversibility Method and Neural Network Machine Learning to Solution of Black-Scholes Equations (appeared on the AMS Contemporary Mathematics journal), we create and evaluate new empirical mathematical models for the Black-Scholes equation to analyze data for 92,846 companies. We solve the Black-Scholes (BS) equation forwards in time as an ill-posed inverse problem, using the Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM), to predict option price for the future one day. For each company, we have 13 elements including stock and option daily prices, volatility, minimizer, etc. Because the market is so complicated that there exists no perfect model, we apply ML to train algorithms to make the best prediction. The current stage of research combines QRM with Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), which learn information across a large number of data points simultaneously. We implement CNN to generate new results by validating and testing on sample market data. We test different ways of applying CNN and compare our CNN models with previous models to see if achieving a higher profit rate is possible.

预测基金绩效对投资者和基金经理都是有益的，但这是一项艰巨的任务。在本文中，我们测试了深度学习模型是否比传统统计技术更准确地预测基金绩效。基金绩效通常通过Sharpe比率进行评估，该比例代表了风险调整的绩效，以确保基金之间有意义的可比性。我们根据每月收益率数据序列数据计算了年度夏普比率，该数据的时间序列数据为600多个投资于美国上市大型股票的开放式共同基金投资。我们发现，经过现代贝叶斯优化训练的长期短期记忆（LSTM）和封闭式复发单元（GRUS）深度学习方法比传统统计量相比，预测基金的Sharpe比率更高。结合了LSTM和GRU的预测的合奏方法，可以实现所有模型的最佳性能。有证据表明，深度学习和结合能提供有希望的解决方案，以应对基金绩效预测的挑战。

With the evolution of power systems as it is becoming more intelligent and interactive system while increasing in flexibility with a larger penetration of renewable energy sources, demand prediction on a short-term resolution will inevitably become more and more crucial in designing and managing the future grid, especially when it comes to an individual household level. Projecting the demand for electricity for a single energy user, as opposed to the aggregated power consumption of residential load on a wide scale, is difficult because of a considerable number of volatile and uncertain factors. This paper proposes a customized GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture to address this challenging problem. LSTM and GRU are comparatively newer and among the most well-adopted deep learning approaches. The electricity consumption datasets were obtained from individual household smart meters. The comparison shows that the LSTM model performs better for home-level forecasting than alternative prediction techniques-GRU in this case. To compare the NN-based models with contrast to the conventional statistical technique-based model, ARIMA based model was also developed and benchmarked with LSTM and GRU model outcomes in this study to show the performance of the proposed model on the collected time series data.

Wind power forecasting helps with the planning for the power systems by contributing to having a higher level of certainty in decision-making. Due to the randomness inherent to meteorological events (e.g., wind speeds), making highly accurate long-term predictions for wind power can be extremely difficult. One approach to remedy this challenge is to utilize weather information from multiple points across a geographical grid to obtain a holistic view of the wind patterns, along with temporal information from the previous power outputs of the wind farms. Our proposed CNN-RNN architecture combines convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to extract spatial and temporal information from multi-dimensional input data to make day-ahead predictions. In this regard, our method incorporates an ultra-wide learning view, combining data from multiple numerical weather prediction models, wind farms, and geographical locations. Additionally, we experiment with global forecasting approaches to understand the impact of training the same model over the datasets obtained from multiple different wind farms, and we employ a method where spatial information extracted from convolutional layers is passed to a tree ensemble (e.g., Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM)) instead of fully connected layers. The results show that our proposed CNN-RNN architecture outperforms other models such as LGBM, Extra Tree regressor and linear regression when trained globally, but fails to replicate such performance when trained individually on each farm. We also observe that passing the spatial information from CNN to LGBM improves its performance, providing further evidence of CNN's spatial feature extraction capabilities.

良好的研究努力致力于利用股票预测中的深度神经网络。虽然远程依赖性和混沌属性仍然是在预测未来价格趋势之前降低最先进的深度学习模型的表现。在这项研究中，我们提出了一个新的框架来解决这两个问题。具体地，在将时间序列转换为复杂网络方面，我们将市场价格系列转换为图形。然后，从映射的图表中提取参考时间点和节点权重之间的关联的结构信息以解决关于远程依赖性和混沌属性的问题。我们采取图形嵌入式以表示时间点之间的关联作为预测模型输入。节点重量被用作先验知识，以增强时间关注的学习。我们拟议的框架的有效性通过现实世界股票数据验证，我们的方法在几个最先进的基准中获得了最佳性能。此外，在进行的交易模拟中，我们的框架进一步获得了最高的累积利润。我们的结果补充了复杂网络方法在金融领域的现有应用，并为金融市场中决策支持的投资应用提供了富有识别的影响。

短期负荷预测（STLF）由于复杂的时间序列（TS）是一种表达三个季节性模式和非线性趋势的挑战。本文提出了一种新的混合分层深度学习模型，涉及多个季节性，并产生两点预测和预测间隔（PIS）。它结合了指数平滑（ES）和经常性神经网络（RNN）。 ES动态提取每个单独的TS的主要组件，并启用在飞行的临时化，这在相对较小的数据集上操作时特别有用。多层RNN配备了一种新型扩张的经常性电池，旨在有效地模拟TS中的短期和长期依赖性。为了改善内部TS表示，因此模型的性能，RNN同时学习ES参数和主要映射函数将输入转换为预测。我们比较我们对几种基线方法的方法，包括古典统计方法和机器学习（ML）方法，在35个欧洲国家的STLF问题。实证研究清楚地表明，该模型具有高表现力，以解决非线性随机预测问题，包括多个季节性和显着的随机波动。实际上，它在准确性方面优于统计和最先进的ML模型。

股票市场的不可预测性和波动性使得使用任何广义计划赚取可观的利润具有挑战性。许多先前的研究尝试了不同的技术来建立机器学习模型，这可以通过进行实时交易来在美国股票市场赚取可观的利润。但是，很少有研究重点是在特定交易期找到最佳功能的重要性。我们的顶级方法使用该性能将功能从总共148缩小到大约30。此外，在每次训练我们的机器学习模型之前，都会动态选择前25个功能。它与四个分类器一起使用合奏学习：高斯天真贝叶斯，决策树，带L1正则化的逻辑回归和随机梯度下降，以决定是长时间还是短的特定股票。我们的最佳模型在2011年7月至2019年1月之间进行的每日交易，可获得54.35％的利润。最后，我们的工作表明，加权分类器的混合物的表现要比任何在股票市场做出交易决策的个人预测指标更好。

With the increasing enrichment and development of the financial derivatives market, the frequency of transactions is also faster and faster. Due to human limitations, algorithms and automatic trading have recently become the focus of discussion. In this paper, we propose a bidirectional LSTM neural network based on an attention mechanism, which is based on two popular assets, gold and bitcoin. In terms of Feature Engineering, on the one hand, we add traditional technical factors, and at the same time, we combine time series models to develop factors. In the selection of model parameters, we finally chose a two-layer deep learning network. According to AUC measurement, the accuracy of bitcoin and gold is 71.94% and 73.03% respectively. Using the forecast results, we achieved a return of 1089.34% in two years. At the same time, we also compare the attention Bi-LSTM model proposed in this paper with the traditional model, and the results show that our model has the best performance in this data set. Finally, we discuss the significance of the model and the experimental results, as well as the possible improvement direction in the future.

在本文中，我们研究了使用深层学习技术预测外汇货币对未来波动性的问题。我们逐步展示如何通过对白天波动率的经验模式的指导来构建深度学习网络。数值结果表明，与传统的基线（即自回归和GARCH模型）相比，多尺寸长的短期内存（LSTM）模型与多货币对的输入相比一致地实现了最先进的准确性，即自动增加和加入模型其他深度学习模式。

The stock market prediction has been a traditional yet complex problem researched within diverse research areas and application domains due to its non-linear, highly volatile and complex nature. Existing surveys on stock market prediction often focus on traditional machine learning methods instead of deep learning methods. Deep learning has dominated many domains, gained much success and popularity in recent years in stock market prediction. This motivates us to provide a structured and comprehensive overview of the research on stock market prediction focusing on deep learning techniques. We present four elaborated subtasks of stock market prediction and propose a novel taxonomy to summarize the state-of-the-art models based on deep neural networks from 2011 to 2022. In addition, we also provide detailed statistics on the datasets and evaluation metrics commonly used in the stock market. Finally, we highlight some open issues and point out several future directions by sharing some new perspectives on stock market prediction.

股票市场是一个网络，为几乎所有主要的经济交易提供平台。虽然投资股票市场是一个好主意，但对单个股票进行投资可能不是一个好主意，尤其是对于休闲投资者而言。智能储备需要深入研究和大量奉献精神。预测这种股票价值提供了巨大的套利利润机会。找到解决方案的这种吸引力促使研究人员找到了过去的问题，例如波动，季节性和时间依赖时间。本文调查了自然语言处理和机器学习技术领域的最新文献，用于预测股票市场的发展。本文的主要贡献包括许多最近的文章的复杂分类以及股票市场预测研究及其相关领域的最新研究趋势。

我们根据数百个液体库存制成的合并数据集培训LSTM网络，旨在预测所有股票的下一个每日实现的波动性。显示了这种通用LSTM相对于其他资产特异性参数模型的一致性，我们发现了与过去的市场实现相关的普遍波动性形成机制的非参数证据，包括每日回报和波动率与当前的波动。结合粗糙的分数随机波动率和二次粗糙的Heston模型的简约参数预测设备与固定参数相结合的二次粗糙heston模型会导致与通用LSTM相同的性能水平，从参数角度来证实了波动性形成过程的通用性。

对于长期来说，研究人员一直在开发可靠而准确的股票价格预测预测模型。根据文献，如果预测模型是正确的设计和精炼，他们可以煞费苦心地和忠实地估计未来的库存价值。本文展示了一组时间序列，计量经济性和各种基于学习的股票价格预测模型。在此处使用来自2004年1月至2019年12月至2019年12月的Infosys，Icici和Sun Pharma的数据用于培训和测试模型，以了解哪种模型在哪个部门中表现最佳。一个时间序列模型（Holt-Winters指数平滑），一个计量计量模型（Arima），两台机器学习模型（随机林和火星），以及两种深度学习的模型（简单的RNN和LSTM）已被列入本文。火星已被证明是最好的执行机器学习模式，而LSTM已被证明是表现最好的深层学习模式。但总体而言，对于所有三个部门 - 它（在Infosys数据上），银行业务（在ICICI数据）和健康（在Sun Pharma数据上），Mars已被证明是销售预测中最佳表现模式。

In this paper, we propose a new short-term load forecasting (STLF) model based on contextually enhanced hybrid and hierarchical architecture combining exponential smoothing (ES) and a recurrent neural network (RNN). The model is composed of two simultaneously trained tracks: the context track and the main track. The context track introduces additional information to the main track. It is extracted from representative series and dynamically modulated to adjust to the individual series forecasted by the main track. The RNN architecture consists of multiple recurrent layers stacked with hierarchical dilations and equipped with recently proposed attentive dilated recurrent cells. These cells enable the model to capture short-term, long-term and seasonal dependencies across time series as well as to weight dynamically the input information. The model produces both point forecasts and predictive intervals. The experimental part of the work performed on 35 forecasting problems shows that the proposed model outperforms in terms of accuracy its predecessor as well as standard statistical models and state-of-the-art machine learning models.

As various city agencies and mobility operators navigate toward innovative mobility solutions, there is a need for strategic flexibility in well-timed investment decisions in the design and timing of mobility service regions, i.e. cast as "real options" (RO). This problem becomes increasingly challenging with multiple interacting RO in such investments. We propose a scalable machine learning based RO framework for multi-period sequential service region design & timing problem for mobility-on-demand services, framed as a Markov decision process with non-stationary stochastic variables. A value function approximation policy from literature uses multi-option least squares Monte Carlo simulation to get a policy value for a set of interdependent investment decisions as deferral options (CR policy). The goal is to determine the optimal selection and timing of a set of zones to include in a service region. However, prior work required explicit enumeration of all possible sequences of investments. To address the combinatorial complexity of such enumeration, we propose a new variant "deep" RO policy using an efficient recurrent neural network (RNN) based ML method (CR-RNN policy) to sample sequences to forego the need for enumeration, making network design & timing policy tractable for large scale implementation. Experiments on multiple service region scenarios in New York City (NYC) shows the proposed policy substantially reduces the overall computational cost (time reduction for RO evaluation of > 90% of total investment sequences is achieved), with zero to near-zero gap compared to the benchmark. A case study of sequential service region design for expansion of MoD services in Brooklyn, NYC show that using the CR-RNN policy to determine optimal RO investment strategy yields a similar performance (0.5% within CR policy value) with significantly reduced computation time (about 5.4 times faster).

本文调查了股票回购，特别是分享回购公告。它解决了如何识别此类公告，股票回购的超额回报以及股票回购公告后的回报的预测。我们说明了两种NLP方法，用于自动检测股票回购公告。即使有少量的培训数据，我们也可以达到高达90％的准确性。该论文利用这些NLP方法生成一个由57,155个股票回购公告组成的大数据集。通过分析该数据集，本论文的目的是表明大多数宣布回购的公司的大多数公司都表现不佳。但是，少数公司的表现极大地超过了MSCI世界。当查看所有公司的平均值时，这种重要的表现过高会导致净收益。如果根据公司的规模调整了基准指数，则平均表现过高，并且大多数表现不佳。但是，发现宣布股票回购的公司至少占其市值的1％，即使使用调整后的基准，也平均交付了显着的表现。还发现，在危机时期宣布股票回购的公司比整个市场更好。此外，生成的数据集用于训练72个机器学习模型。通过此，它能够找到许多可以达到高达77％并产生大量超额回报的策略。可以在六个不同的时间范围内改善各种性能指标，并确定明显的表现。这是通过训练多个模型的不同任务和时间范围以及结合这些不同模型的方法来实现的，从而通过融合弱学习者来产生重大改进，以创造一个强大的学习者。

衡量全球经济均衡的定量指标与农业供应链和国际贸易流量具有强大而相互依存的关系。这些过程中的突然震动由贸易战争，流行病或天气等异常事件造成的，可能对全球经济具有复杂影响。在本文中，我们提出了一种新颖的框架，即：Depeag，采用经济学，使用深度学习（DL）来测量异常事件检测的影响，以确定普通财务指数（如Dowjones）之间的关系，以及生产价值农产品（如奶酪和牛奶）。我们使用称为长期内存（LSTM）网络的DL技术成功地预测商品生产，高精度，也是五个流行的模型（回归和提升）作为基准，以测量异常事件的影响。结果表明，具有异常值的考虑因素（使用隔离林）优于基线模型的Depeag，以及具有异常值检测的相同模型。在预测财务指标预测商品生产时，异常事件会产生相当大的影响。此外，我们展示了Deepag对公共政策的影响，为政策制定者和农民提供了洞察力，以及农业生态系统的运作决策。收集数据，模型开发，并记录和呈现结果。

在本文中，我们介绍了蒙面的多步多变量预测（MMMF），这是一个新颖而普遍的自我监督学习框架，用于时间序列预测，并提供已知的未来信息。在许多真实世界的预测情况下，已知一些未来的信息，例如，在进行短期到中期的电力需求预测或进行飞机出发预测时的油价预测时，天气信息。现有的机器学习预测框架可以分为（1）基于样本的方法，在此方法中进行每个预测，以及（2）时间序列回归方法，其中未来信息未完全合并。为了克服现有方法的局限性，我们提出了MMMF，这是一个培训能够生成一系列输出的神经网络模型的框架，将过去的时间信息和有关未来的已知信息结合在一起，以做出更好的预测。实验在两个现实世界数据集上进行（1）中期电力需求预测，以及（2）前两个月的飞行偏离预测。他们表明，所提出的MMMF框架的表现不仅优于基于样本的方法，而且具有与完全相同的基本模型的现有时间序列预测模型。此外，一旦通过MMMF进行了神经网络模型，其推理速度与接受传统回归配方训练的相同模型的推理速度相似，从而使MMMF成为现有回归训练的时间序列的更好替代品，如果有一些可用的未来，信息。

试图预测资产价格将增加或减少的二进制分类器，自然会导致预测的交易策略，从而总是在市场上有一个位置。选择性分类扩展了二进制或多级分类器，以允许它避免对某些输入进行预测，从而允许所得到的选择分类器的准确性与输入特征空间的覆盖范围之间的折衷。选择性分类器会导致贸易策略，当分类器弃权时不采取交易职位。我们调查二元和三元选择性分类对交易策略设计的应用。对于Ternary分类，除了上课的课程上涨或下降之外，我们还包括第三个类，它对应于相对较小的价格在任一方向上移动，并给予分类器另一种方式来避免进行方向预测。我们使用前瞻性的火车验证 - 测试方法来评估和比较基于四种分类方法的几个不同特征集的二进制和三元，选择性和非选择性分类器：逻辑回归，随机森林，前馈和复发性神经网络网络。然后，我们将这些分类器转变为我们在商品期货市场上进行反向的交易策略。我们的经验结果展示了交易选择性分类的潜力。