本文介绍了作者在天气4播出阶段1中使用的神经网络模型，其中目标是预测基于卫星天气数据图像的时间演变。该网络基于编码器 - 预测架构利用所通用的经常性单元（GU），残差块和具有类似U-Net类似的快捷方式的契约/扩展架构。还介绍了利用剩余块代替卷积的GRU变体。提出了模型的示例预测和评估度量。这些表明，该模型可以保留第一个预测的输入的尖锐特征，而后来的预测变得更模糊以反映不变的不确定性。

Weather4cast 2021竞争使参与者成为预测卫星基于气象数据的二维领域的时间演变的任务。本文介绍了作者的努力，经过竞争第一阶段的初步成功，在第二阶段进一步改善模型。改进由较浅的模型变体组成，该变体与更深入的版本竞争，采用Adabelief优化器，改进了一个预测变量的处理，其中发现训练集的良好设置良好，以及组合多个模型来改进结果进一步。竞争指标的最大量化改善可归因于竞争第二阶段的培训数据量增加，其次是模型集合的影响。定性结果表明，该模型可以预测场的时间演变，包括田间的运动随着时间的推移，从急剧预测开始，以便在后面的帧中对输出的直接预测和模糊以解释增加的不确定性。

Accurate and timely rain prediction is crucial for decision making and is also a challenging task. This paper presents a solution which won the 2 nd prize in the Weather4cast 2022 NeurIPS competition using 3D U-Nets and EarthFormers for 8-hour probabilistic rain prediction based on multi-band satellite images. The spatial context effect of the input satellite image has been deeply explored and optimal context range has been found. Based on the imbalanced rain distribution, we trained multiple models with different loss functions. To further improve the model performance, multi-model ensemble and threshold optimization were used to produce the final probabilistic rain prediction. Experiment results and leaderboard scores demonstrate that optimal spatial context, combined loss function, multi-model ensemble, and threshold optimization all provide modest model gain. A permutation test was used to analyze the effect of each satellite band on rain prediction, and results show that satellite bands signifying cloudtop phase (8.7 um) and cloud-top height (10.8 and 13.4 um) are the best predictors for rain prediction. The source code is available at https://github.com/bugsuse/weather4cast-2022-stage2.

提出了一个深度学习模型，以便在未来60分钟的五分钟时间分辨率下以闪电的形式出现。该模型基于反复横向的结构，该结构使其能够识别并预测对流的时空发展，包括雷暴细胞的运动，生长和衰变。预测是在固定网格上执行的，而无需使用风暴对象检测和跟踪。从瑞士和周围的区域收集的输入数据包括地面雷达数据，可见/红外卫星数据以及衍生的云产品，闪电检测，数值天气预测和数字高程模型数据。我们分析了不同的替代损失功能，班级加权策略和模型特征，为将来的研究提供了指南，以最佳地选择损失功能，并正确校准其模型的概率预测。基于这些分析，我们在这项研究中使用焦点损失，但得出结论，它仅在交叉熵方面提供了较小的好处，如果模型的重新校准不实用，这是一个可行的选择。该模型在60分钟的现有周期内实现了0.45的像素临界成功指数（CSI）为0.45，以预测8 km的闪电发生，范围从5分钟的CSI到5分钟的提前时间到CSI到CSI的0.32在A处。收货时间60分钟。

不仅可以从大气数据中发现模式和见解，可以实现更准确的天气预报，但它也可以提供有价值的信息来帮助解决气候变化。Weather4cast是一种开放式竞争，旨在评估机器学习算法的能力，以预测未来的大气状态。在这里，我们将我们的第三次解决方案描述为Weather4cast。我们提出了一种新颖的改变U-Net，它结合了变形的AutoEncoder的能力，以考虑数据的概率性质，以u-net恢复细粒细节的能力。该解决方案是我们的第四次解决方案与许多常见的传播420的第四种解决方案的演变，表明其适用于巨大不同的域，例如天气和交通。

天气预报在人类日常生活的多个方面起着重要作用。目前，基于物理的数值天气预报用于预测天气，并且需要大量的计算资源。近年来，基于深度学习的模型在许多天气预报相关任务中都有广泛的成功。在本文中，我们描述了我们的天气421攻击的实验，其中基于初始时空数据的初始一小时来预测8小时的时空天气数据。我们专注于SMAAT-UNET，一个高效的U-Net基于AutoEncoder。通过这种型号，我们可以获得优异的结果，同时保持低计算资源。此外，在纸张结束时讨论了几种方法和可能的未来工作。

The short-term prediction of precipitation is critical in many areas of life. Recently, a large body of work was devoted to forecasting radar reflectivity images. The radar images are available only in areas with ground weather radars. Thus, we aim to predict high-resolution precipitation from lower-resolution satellite radiance images. A neural network called WeatherFusionNet is employed to predict severe rain up to eight hours in advance. WeatherFusionNet is a U-Net architecture that fuses three different ways to process the satellite data; predicting future satellite frames, extracting rain information from the current frames, and using the input sequence directly. Using the presented method, we achieved 1st place in the NeurIPS 2022 Weather4Cast Core challenge. The code and trained parameters are available at \url{https://github.com/Datalab-FIT-CTU/weather4cast-2022}.

地球天文台是一个不断增长的研究领域，可以在短时间预测（即现在的情况下）利用AI的力量。在这项工作中，我们使用视频变压器网络应对天气预报的挑战。视觉变压器体系结构已在各种应用中进行了探索，主要限制是注意力的计算复杂性和饥饿的培训。为了解决这些问题，我们建议使用视频Swin-Transformer，再加上专用的增强计划。此外，我们在编码器侧采用逐渐的空间减少，并在解码器上进行了交叉注意。在Weather4cast2021天气预报挑战数据中测试了建议的方法，该数据需要从每小时的天气产品序列预测未来的8小时（每小时4个小时）。将数据集归一化为0-1，以促进使用不同数据集的评估指标。该模型在提供训练数据时会导致MSE得分为0.4750，在不使用培训数据的情况下转移学习过程中为0.4420。

能量供应和需求受到气象条件的影响。随着对可再生能源的需求增加，精确天气预报的相关性增加。能源提供者和决策者要求天气信息进行明智的选择，并根据业务目标建立最佳计划。由于最近应用于卫星图像的深度学习技术，使用遥感数据的天气预报也是主要进步的主题。本文通过基于U-Net的架构调查了荷兰沿海海洋元素的多个步骤框架预测。来自哥白尼观察计划的每小时数据在2年内跨过跨越2年的时间，用于培训模型并进行预测，包括季节性预测。我们提出了U-Net架构的变化，并使用剩余连接，并行卷积和不对称卷积进一步扩展了这一新颖模型，以便引入三种额外的架构。特别是，我们表明，配备有平行和不对称卷积的架构以及跳过连接优于其他三个讨论的模型。

卫星图像时间序列中的大量差距通常会使深度学习模型（例如卷积神经网络用于时空建模）的应用变得复杂。基于计算机视觉介绍的先前工作，本文显示了如何将三维时空部分卷积用作神经网络中的层来填补卫星图像时间序列中的空白。为了评估该方法，我们在Sentinel-5p卫星的准全球碳一氧化碳观测值的不完整图像时间序列上应用类似U-NET的模型。预测误差可与两种考虑的统计方法相媲美，而预测的计算时间最多要快三个数量级，这使得该方法适用于处理大量卫星数据。可以将部分卷积添加到其他类型的神经网络中，从而使与现有深度学习模型集成相对容易。但是，该方法没有量化预测错误，需要进一步的研究来理解和提高模型可传递性。时空部分卷积的实施和U-NET型模型可作为开源软件可用。

Climate change, population growth, and water scarcity present unprecedented challenges for agriculture. This project aims to forecast soil moisture using domain knowledge and machine learning for crop management decisions that enable sustainable farming. Traditional methods for predicting hydrological response features require significant computational time and expertise. Recent work has implemented machine learning models as a tool for forecasting hydrological response features, but these models neglect a crucial component of traditional hydrological modeling that spatially close units can have vastly different hydrological responses. In traditional hydrological modeling, units with similar hydrological properties are grouped together and share model parameters regardless of their spatial proximity. Inspired by this domain knowledge, we have constructed a novel domain-inspired temporal graph convolution neural network. Our approach involves clustering units based on time-varying hydrological properties, constructing graph topologies for each cluster, and forecasting soil moisture using graph convolutions and a gated recurrent neural network. We have trained, validated, and tested our method on field-scale time series data consisting of approximately 99,000 hydrological response units spanning 40 years in a case study in northeastern United States. Comparison with existing models illustrates the effectiveness of using domain-inspired clustering with time series graph neural networks. The framework is being deployed as part of a pro bono social impact program. The trained models are being deployed on small-holding farms in central Texas.

Traditional weather forecasting relies on domain expertise and computationally intensive numerical simulation systems. Recently, with the development of a data-driven approach, weather forecasting based on deep learning has been receiving attention. Deep learning-based weather forecasting has made stunning progress, from various backbone studies using CNN, RNN, and Transformer to training strategies using weather observations datasets with auxiliary inputs. All of this progress has contributed to the field of weather forecasting; however, many elements and complex structures of deep learning models prevent us from reaching physical interpretations. This paper proposes a SImple baseline with a spatiotemporal context Aggregation Network (SIANet) that achieved state-of-the-art in 4 parts of 5 benchmarks of W4C22. This simple but efficient structure uses only satellite images and CNNs in an end-to-end fashion without using a multi-model ensemble or fine-tuning. This simplicity of SIANet can be used as a solid baseline that can be easily applied in weather forecasting using deep learning.

由于其对人类生命，运输，粮食生产和能源管理的高度影响，因此在科学上研究了预测天气的问题。目前的运营预测模型基于物理学，并使用超级计算机来模拟大气预测，提前预测数小时和日期。更好的基于物理的预测需要改进模型本身，这可能是一个实质性的科学挑战，以及潜在的分辨率的改进，可以计算令人望而却步。基于神经网络的新出现的天气模型代表天气预报的范式转变：模型学习来自数据的所需变换，而不是依赖于手工编码的物理，并计算效率。然而，对于神经模型，每个额外的辐射时间都会构成大量挑战，因为它需要捕获更大的空间环境并增加预测的不确定性。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个神经网络，能够提前十二小时的大规模降水预测，并且从相同的大气状态开始，该模型能够比最先进的基于物理的模型更高的技能HRRR和HREF目前在美国大陆运营。可解释性分析加强了模型学会模拟先进物理原则的观察。这些结果代表了建立与神经网络有效预测的新范式的实质性步骤。

Solar forecasting from ground-based sky images using deep learning models has shown great promise in reducing the uncertainty in solar power generation. One of the biggest challenges for training deep learning models is the availability of labeled datasets. With more and more sky image datasets open sourced in recent years, the development of accurate and reliable solar forecasting methods has seen a huge growth in potential. In this study, we explore three different training strategies for deep-learning-based solar forecasting models by leveraging three heterogeneous datasets collected around the world with drastically different climate patterns. Specifically, we compare the performance of models trained individually based on local datasets (local models) and models trained jointly based on the fusion of multiple datasets from different locations (global models), and we further examine the knowledge transfer from pre-trained solar forecasting models to a new dataset of interest (transfer learning models). The results suggest that the local models work well when deployed locally, but significant errors are observed for the scale of the prediction when applied offsite. The global model can adapt well to individual locations, while the possible increase in training efforts need to be taken into account. Pre-training models on a large and diversified source dataset and transferring to a local target dataset generally achieves superior performance over the other two training strategies. Transfer learning brings the most benefits when there are limited local data. With 80% less training data, it can achieve 1% improvement over the local baseline model trained using the entire dataset. Therefore, we call on the efforts from the solar forecasting community to contribute to a global dataset containing a massive amount of imagery and displaying diversified samples with a range of sky conditions.

This paper presents a solution to the Weather4cast 2022 Challenge Stage 2. The goal of the challenge is to forecast future high-resolution rainfall events obtained from ground radar using low-resolution multiband satellite images. We suggest a solution that performs data preprocessing appropriate to the challenge and then predicts rainfall movies using a novel RainUNet. RainUNet is a hierarchical U-shaped network with temporal-wise separable block (TS block) using a decoupled large kernel 3D convolution to improve the prediction performance. Various evaluation metrics show that our solution is effective compared to the baseline method. The source codes are available at https://github.com/jinyxp/Weather4cast-2022

太阳能现在是历史上最便宜的电力形式。不幸的是，由于其变异性，显着提高栅格的太阳能的一部分仍然具有挑战性，这使得电力的供需平衡更加困难。虽然热发电机坡度 - 它们可以改变输出的最高速率 - 是有限的，太阳能的坡度基本上是无限的。因此，准确的近期太阳能预测或垂圈，对于提供预警来调整热发电机输出，以响应于太阳能变化来调整热发电机，以确保平衡供需。为了解决问题，本文开发了使用自我监督学习的丰富和易于使用的多光谱卫星数据的太阳能垂圈的一般模型。具体而言，我们使用卷积神经网络（CNN）和长短期内存网络（LSTM）开发深度自动回归模型，这些模型在多个位置训练全球培训，以预测最近推出的最近收集的时空数据的未来观察-R系列卫星。我们的模型估计了基于卫星观测的未来的太阳辐照度，我们向较小的场地特定的太阳能数据培训的回归模型提供，以提供近期太阳能光伏（PV）预测，其考虑了现场特征的特征。我们评估了我们在25个太阳能场所的不同覆盖区域和预测视野的方法，并表明我们的方法利用地面真理观察结果产生靠近模型的错误。

降水预测是一项重要的科学挑战，对社会产生广泛影响。从历史上看，这项挑战是使用数值天气预测（NWP）模型解决的，该模型基于基于物理的模拟。最近，许多作品提出了一种替代方法，使用端到端深度学习（DL）模型来替代基于物理的NWP。尽管这些DL方法显示出提高的性能和计算效率，但它们在长期预测中表现出局限性，并且缺乏NWP模型的解释性。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个混合NWP-DL工作流程，以填补独立NWP和DL方法之间的空白。在此工作流程下，NWP输出被馈入深层模型，该模型后处理数据以产生精致的降水预测。使用自动气象站（AWS）观测值作为地面真相标签，对深层模型进行了监督训练。这可以实现两全其美，甚至可以从NWP技术的未来改进中受益。为了促进朝这个方向进行研究，我们提出了一个专注于朝鲜半岛的新型数据集，该数据集称为KOMET（KOMEN（KOREA气象数据集），由NWP预测和AWS观察组成。对于NWP，我们使用全局数据同化和预测系统-KOREA集成模型（GDAPS-KIM）。

Accurately forecasting the weather is an important task, as many real-world processes and decisions depend on future meteorological conditions. The NeurIPS 2022 challenge entitled Weather4cast poses the problem of predicting rainfall events for the next eight hours given the preceding hour of satellite observations as a context. Motivated by the recent success of transformer-based architectures in computer vision, we implement and propose two methodologies based on this architecture to tackle this challenge. We find that ensembling different transformers with some baseline models achieves the best performance we could measure on the unseen test data. Our approach has been ranked 3rd in the competition.

The geospace environment is volatile and highly driven. Space weather has effects on Earth's magnetosphere that cause a dynamic and enigmatic response in the thermosphere, particularly on the evolution of neutral mass density. Many models exist that use space weather drivers to produce a density response, but these models are typically computationally expensive or inaccurate for certain space weather conditions. In response, this work aims to employ a probabilistic machine learning (ML) method to create an efficient surrogate for the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), a physics-based thermosphere model. Our method leverages principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of TIE-GCM and recurrent neural networks to model the dynamic behavior of the thermosphere much quicker than the numerical model. The newly developed reduced order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) uses Long-Short Term Memory neural networks to perform time-series forecasting in the reduced state and provide distributions for future density. We show that across the available data, TIE-GCM ROPE has similar error to previous linear approaches while improving storm-time modeling. We also conduct a satellite propagation study for the significant November 2003 storm which shows that TIE-GCM ROPE can capture the position resulting from TIE-GCM density with < 5 km bias. Simultaneously, linear approaches provide point estimates that can result in biases of 7 - 18 km.

本文描述了一个新颖的机器学习（ML）框架，用于热带气旋强度和轨道预测，结合了多种ML技术并利用了多种数据源。我们的多模式框架（称为Hurricast）有效地结合了时空数据和统计数据，通过提取具有深度学习的编码器编码器体系结构的特征，并通过梯度增强的树进行预测。我们在2016 - 2019年在北大西洋和东太平洋盆地进行了24小时的提前时间和强度预测，评估我们的模型，并表明它们在秒内计算时达到了当前操作预测模型的可比平均绝对误差和技能。此外，将飓风纳入运营预测的共识模型可以改善国家飓风中心的官方预测，从而通过现有方法突出显示互补物业。总而言之，我们的工作表明，利用机器学习技术结合不同的数据源可以带来热带气旋预测的新机会。