我们采用了近端迭代，以便在加固学习中进行价值函数优化。近端迭代是一种计算上有效的技术，使我们能够向更理想的解决方案偏置优化过程。作为近端迭代在深增强学习中的具体应用，我们将深度Q-Network（DQN）代理具有近期术语的目标函数，以确保DQN的在线网络组件仍保留在目标网络附近。我们用近端迭代调用DQN或DQNPRO的所得代理，在ATARI基准测试中对原始DQN的显着改进。我们的结果强调了采用深度增强学习的声音优化技术的力量。

我们考虑使用自动监督学习系统的数据表，不仅包含数字/分类列，而且还包含一个或多个文本字段。在这里，我们组装了18个多模式数据表，每个数据表都包含一些文本字段并源于真正的业务应用程序。我们的公开的基准使研究人员能够通过数字，分类和文本功能全面评估自己的监督学习方法。为了确保在所有18个数据集上执行良好的任何单一建模策略将作为多式化文本/表格自动机的实用基础，我们的基准中的不同数据集在：样本大小，问题类型（分类和回归任务组合），功能数量（数据集之间的文本列的数量范围为1到28），以及预测信号如何在文本与数字/分类特征（以及预测相互作用）之间分解。在此基准测试中，我们评估各种直接的流水线来模拟这些数据，包括标准的两阶段方法，其中NLP用于团体化文本，然后可以应用表格数据的自动机。与人类数据科学团队相比，在我们的基准测试（堆叠与各种树模型的堆栈组合多峰变压器的堆栈）的全自动方法也可以在两个机器预测竞赛中符合原始文本/表格数据和第二次在卡格的Mercari价格建议挑战中的地方（2380支球队）。

这本开源书代表了我们试图使深度学习的尝试，教读者的概念，上下文和代码。整本书都在jupyter笔记本上起草，无缝将博览会图，数学和交互式示例与独立代码相结合。我们的目标是提供一个可以（i）可以免费提供的资源；（ii）提供了足够的技术深度，以提供真正成为应用机器学习科学家的道路的起点；（iii）包括可运行的代码，向读者展示如何解决实践中的问题；（iv）允许我们和整个社区进行快速更新；（v）通过论坛进行补充，以互动讨论技术细节并回答问题。

分位数回归是统计学习中的一个基本问题，这是由于需要量化预测中的不确定性或对多样化的人群建模而不过分减少的统计学习。例如，流行病学预测，成本估算和收入预测都可以准确地量化可能的值的范围。因此，在计量经济学，统计和机器学习的多年研究中，已经为这个问题开发了许多模型。而不是提出另一种（新的）算法用于分位数回归，而是采用元观点：我们研究用于汇总任意数量的有条件分位模型的方法，以提高准确性和鲁棒性。我们考虑加权合奏，其中权重不仅可能因单个模型，而且要多于分位数和特征值而变化。我们在本文中考虑的所有模型都可以使用现代深度学习工具包适合，因此可以广泛访问（从实现的角度）和可扩展。为了提高预测分位数的准确性（或等效地，预测间隔），我们开发了确保分位数保持单调排序的工具，并采用保形校准方法。可以使用这些，而无需对原始模型的原始库进行任何修改。我们还回顾了一些围绕分数聚集和相关评分规则的基本理论，并为该文献做出了一些新的结果（例如，在分类或等渗后回归只能提高加权间隔得分的事实）。最后，我们提供了来自两个不同基准存储库的34个数据集的广泛的经验比较套件。

依赖于太多的实验来学习良好的行动，目前的强化学习（RL）算法在现实世界的环境中具有有限的适用性，这可能太昂贵，无法探索探索。我们提出了一种批量RL算法，其中仅使用固定的脱机数据集来学习有效策略，而不是与环境的在线交互。批量RL中的有限数据产生了在培训数据中不充分表示的状态/行动的价值估计中的固有不确定性。当我们的候选政策从生成数据的候选政策发散时，这导致特别严重的外推。我们建议通过两个直接的惩罚来减轻这个问题：减少这种分歧的政策限制和减少过于乐观估计的价值约束。在全面的32个连续动作批量RL基准测试中，我们的方法对最先进的方法进行了比较，无论如何收集离线数据如何。

Deep embeddings answer one simple question: How similar are two images? Learning these embeddings is the bedrock of verification, zero-shot learning, and visual search. The most prominent approaches optimize a deep convolutional network with a suitable loss function, such as contrastive loss or triplet loss. While a rich line of work focuses solely on the loss functions, we show in this paper that selecting training examples plays an equally important role. We propose distance weighted sampling, which selects more informative and stable examples than traditional approaches. In addition, we show that a simple margin based loss is sufficient to outperform all other loss functions. We evaluate our approach on the Stanford Online Products, CAR196, and the CUB200-2011 datasets for image retrieval and clustering, and on the LFW dataset for face verification. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on all of them.

In the past years, deep learning has seen an increase of usage in the domain of histopathological applications. However, while these approaches have shown great potential, in high-risk environments deep learning models need to be able to judge their own uncertainty and be able to reject inputs when there is a significant chance of misclassification. In this work, we conduct a rigorous evaluation of the most commonly used uncertainty and robustness methods for the classification of Whole-Slide-Images under domain shift using the H\&E stained Camelyon17 breast cancer dataset. Although it is known that histopathological data can be subject to strong domain shift and label noise, to our knowledge this is the first work that compares the most common methods for uncertainty estimation under these aspects. In our experiments, we compare Stochastic Variational Inference, Monte-Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Test-Time Data Augmentation as well as combinations thereof. We observe that ensembles of methods generally lead to higher accuracies and better calibration and that Test-Time Data Augmentation can be a promising alternative when choosing an appropriate set of augmentations. Across methods, a rejection of the most uncertain tiles leads to a significant increase in classification accuracy on both in-distribution as well as out-of-distribution data. Furthermore, we conduct experiments comparing these methods under varying conditions of label noise. We observe that the border regions of the Camelyon17 dataset are subject to label noise and evaluate the robustness of the included methods against different noise levels. Lastly, we publish our code framework to facilitate further research on uncertainty estimation on histopathological data.

We address the problem of unsupervised domain adaptation when the source domain differs from the target domain because of a shift in the distribution of a latent subgroup. When this subgroup confounds all observed data, neither covariate shift nor label shift assumptions apply. We show that the optimal target predictor can be non-parametrically identified with the help of concept and proxy variables available only in the source domain, and unlabeled data from the target. The identification results are constructive, immediately suggesting an algorithm for estimating the optimal predictor in the target. For continuous observations, when this algorithm becomes impractical, we propose a latent variable model specific to the data generation process at hand. We show how the approach degrades as the size of the shift changes, and verify that it outperforms both covariate and label shift adjustment.

Since early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there has been interest in using artificial intelligence methods to predict COVID-19 infection status based on vocal audio signals, for example cough recordings. However, existing studies have limitations in terms of data collection and of the assessment of the performances of the proposed predictive models. This paper rigorously assesses state-of-the-art machine learning techniques used to predict COVID-19 infection status based on vocal audio signals, using a dataset collected by the UK Health Security Agency. This dataset includes acoustic recordings and extensive study participant meta-data. We provide guidelines on testing the performance of methods to classify COVID-19 infection status based on acoustic features and we discuss how these can be extended more generally to the development and assessment of predictive methods based on public health datasets.

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Temporal modelling of this medical history, which considers the sequence of events, can be used to forecast and simulate future events, estimate risk, suggest alternative diagnoses or forecast complications. While most prediction approaches use mainly structured data or a subset of single-domain forecasts and outcomes, we processed the entire free-text portion of EHRs for longitudinal modelling. We present Foresight, a novel GPT3-based pipeline that uses NER+L tools (i.e. MedCAT) to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, medications, symptoms and interventions. Since large portions of EHR data are in text form, such an approach benefits from a granular and detailed view of a patient while introducing modest additional noise. On tests in two large UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by 5 clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. Foresight can be easily trained and deployed locally as it only requires free-text data (as a minimum). As a generative model, it can simulate follow-on disorders, medications and interventions for as many steps as required. Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk estimation, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of diseases, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and for educational purposes.