我们提出了一个以数据为中心的管道，能够为新的时尚产品性能预测（NFPPF）问题生成外源性观察数据，即预测没有过去观察的全新服装探测的性能。我们的管道从一件服装探针的单个可用图像开始制造了失踪的过去。它首先要扩展与图像关联的文本标签，在过去的特定时间上查询相关的时尚图像或不合时宜的图像。通过自信的学习，可以在这些网络图像上对二进制分类器进行良好的训练，以了解过去的时尚以及探测图像对这种时尚性的概念的符合。这种合规性产生了潜在的性能（POP）时间序列，表明如果探针的性能较早，则该探针的性能如何。 POP被证明是对探针未来表现的高度预测，可以改善最近Visuelle快速时尚数据集中所有最先进模型的销售预测。我们还表明，流行音乐反映了时尚前锋基准上的新样式（服装合奏）的基础真实性的普及，这表明我们的熟悉的信号是一个真实的流行，每个人都可以访问，并且可以在任何分析时间范围内获得普遍性。 。预测代码，数据和流行时间序列可在以下网址获得：https：//github.com/humaticslab/pop-mining-potential-performance

新的时尚产品销售预测是一个具有挑战性的问题，涉及许多业务动态，无法通过经典的预测方法来解决。在本文中，我们研究了以Google趋势时间序列的形式进行系统探索外源知识的有效性，并将其与与全新时尚项目相关的多模式信息结合在一起，以便有效地预测其销售额，尽管缺乏过去数据。特别是，我们提出了一种基于神经网络的方法，编码器在其中学习了外源时间序列的表示，而解码器则根据Google趋势编码以及可用的视觉和元数据信息来预测销售。我们的模型以非自动回归方式起作用，避免了大型第一步错误的复合效果。作为第二个贡献，我们介绍了Visuelle，这是一个公开可用的数据集，用于新时尚产品销售预测的任务，其中包含5577 Real，新产品的多模式信息，该产品在2016 - 2019年之间从意大利快速时尚公司Nunalie出售。该数据集配备了产品，元数据，相关销售以及相关的Google趋势的图像。我们使用Visuelle将我们的方法与最新的替代方案和几种基线进行比较，这表明我们基于神经网络的方法在百分比和绝对错误方面都是最准确的。值得注意的是，外源知识的添加使预测准确性提高了1.5％的Wape，从而揭示了利用内容丰富的外部信息的重要性。代码和数据集均可在https://github.com/humaticslab/gtm-transformer上获得。

We present Visuelle 2.0, the first dataset useful for facing diverse prediction problems that a fast-fashion company has to manage routinely. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the use of computer vision is substantial in this scenario. Visuelle 2.0 contains data for 6 seasons / 5355 clothing products of Nuna Lie, a famous Italian company with hundreds of shops located in different areas within the country. In particular, we focus on a specific prediction problem, namely short-observation new product sale forecasting (SO-fore). SO-fore assumes that the season has started and a set of new products is on the shelves of the different stores. The goal is to forecast the sales for a particular horizon, given a short, available past (few weeks), since no earlier statistics are available. To be successful, SO-fore approaches should capture this short past and exploit other modalities or exogenous data. To these aims, Visuelle 2.0 is equipped with disaggregated data at the item-shop level and multi-modal information for each clothing item, allowing computer vision approaches to come into play. The main message that we deliver is that the use of image data with deep networks boosts performances obtained when using the time series in long-term forecasting scenarios, ameliorating the WAPE and MAE by up to 5.48% and 7% respectively compared to competitive baseline methods. The dataset is available at https://humaticslab.github.io/forecasting/visuelle

The fashion industry is one of the most active and competitive markets in the world, manufacturing millions of products and reaching large audiences every year. A plethora of business processes are involved in this large-scale industry, but due to the generally short life-cycle of clothing items, supply-chain management and retailing strategies are crucial for good market performance. Correctly understanding the wants and needs of clients, managing logistic issues and marketing the correct products are high-level problems with a lot of uncertainty associated to them given the number of influencing factors, but most importantly due to the unpredictability often associated with the future. It is therefore straightforward that forecasting methods, which generate predictions of the future, are indispensable in order to ameliorate all the various business processes that deal with the true purpose and meaning of fashion: having a lot of people wear a particular product or style, rendering these items, people and consequently brands fashionable. In this paper, we provide an overview of three concrete forecasting tasks that any fashion company can apply in order to improve their industrial and market impact. We underline advances and issues in all three tasks and argue about their importance and the impact they can have at an industrial level. Finally, we highlight issues and directions of future work, reflecting on how learning-based forecasting methods can further aid the fashion industry.

Being able to forecast the popularity of new garment designs is very important in an industry as fast paced as fashion, both in terms of profitability and reducing the problem of unsold inventory. Here, we attempt to address this task in order to provide informative forecasts to fashion designers within a virtual reality designer application that will allow them to fine tune their creations based on current consumer preferences within an interactive and immersive environment. To achieve this we have to deal with the following central challenges: (1) the proposed method should not hinder the creative process and thus it has to rely only on the garment's visual characteristics, (2) the new garment lacks historical data from which to extrapolate their future popularity and (3) fashion trends in general are highly dynamical. To this end, we develop a computer vision pipeline fine tuned on fashion imagery in order to extract relevant visual features along with the category and attributes of the garment. We propose a hierarchical label sharing (HLS) pipeline for automatically capturing hierarchical relations among fashion categories and attributes. Moreover, we propose MuQAR, a Multimodal Quasi-AutoRegressive neural network that forecasts the popularity of new garments by combining their visual features and categorical features while an autoregressive neural network is modelling the popularity time series of the garment's category and attributes. Both the proposed HLS and MuQAR prove capable of surpassing the current state-of-the-art in key benchmark datasets, DeepFashion for image classification and VISUELLE for new garment sales forecasting.

Understanding the variations in trading price (volatility), and its response to exogenous information, is a well-researched topic in finance. In this study, we focus on finding stable and accurate volatility predictors for a relatively new asset class of cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoin, using deep learning representations of public social media data obtained from Twitter. For our experiments, we extracted semantic information and user statistics from over 30 million Bitcoin-related tweets, in conjunction with 15-minute frequency price data over a horizon of 144 days. Using this data, we built several deep learning architectures that utilized different combinations of the gathered information. For each model, we conducted ablation studies to assess the influence of different components and feature sets over the prediction accuracy. We found statistical evidences for the hypotheses that: (i) temporal convolutional networks perform significantly better than both classical autoregressive models and other deep learning-based architectures in the literature, and (ii) tweet author meta-information, even detached from the tweet itself, is a better predictor of volatility than the semantic content and tweet volume statistics. We demonstrate how different information sets gathered from social media can be utilized in different architectures and how they affect the prediction results. As an additional contribution, we make our dataset public for future research.

在线广告收入占发布者的收入流越来越多的份额，特别是对于依赖谷歌和Facebook等技术公司广告网络的中小型出版商而言。因此，出版商可能会从准确的在线广告收入预测中获益，以更好地管理其网站货币化战略。但是，只能获得自己的收入数据的出版商缺乏出版商广告总市场的整体视图，这反过来限制了他们在他们未来的在线广告收入中产生见解的能力。为了解决这一业务问题，我们利用了一个专有的数据库，包括来自各种各样的地区的大量出版商的Google Adsense收入。我们采用时间融合变压器（TFT）模型，这是一种新的基于关注的架构，以预测出版商的广告收入。我们利用多个协变量，不仅包括出版商自己的特征，还包括其他出版商的广告收入。我们的预测结果优于多个时间范围的几个基准深度学习时间系列预测模型。此外，我们通过分析可变重要性重量来识别显着的特征和自我注意重量来解释结果，以揭示持久的时间模式。

连接视觉和语言在生成智能中起着重要作用。因此，已经致力于图像标题的大型研究工作，即用句法和语义有意义的句子描述图像。从2015年开始，该任务通常通过由Visual Encoder组成的管道和文本生成的语言模型来解决任务。在这些年来，两种组件通过对象区域，属性，介绍多模态连接，完全关注方法和伯特早期融合策略的利用而显着发展。但是，无论令人印象深刻的结果，图像标题的研究还没有达到结论性答案。这项工作旨在提供图像标题方法的全面概述，从视觉编码和文本生成到培训策略，数据集和评估度量。在这方面，我们量化地比较了许多相关的最先进的方法来确定架构和培训策略中最有影响力的技术创新。此外，讨论了问题的许多变体及其开放挑战。这项工作的最终目标是作为理解现有文献的工具，并突出显示计算机视觉和自然语言处理的研究领域的未来方向可以找到最佳的协同作用。

本次调查绘制了用于分析社交媒体数据的生成方法的研究状态的广泛的全景照片（Sota）。它填补了空白，因为现有的调查文章在其范围内或被约会。我们包括两个重要方面，目前正在挖掘和建模社交媒体的重要性：动态和网络。社会动态对于了解影响影响或疾病的传播，友谊的形成，友谊的形成等，另一方面，可以捕获各种复杂关系，提供额外的洞察力和识别否则将不会被注意的重要模式。

时间变化数量的估计是医疗保健和金融等领域决策的基本组成部分。但是，此类估计值的实际实用性受到它们量化预测不确定性的准确程度的限制。在这项工作中，我们解决了估计高维多元时间序列的联合预测分布的问题。我们提出了一种基于变压器体系结构的多功能方法，该方法使用基于注意力的解码器估算关节分布，该解码器可被学会模仿非参数Copulas的性质。最终的模型具有多种理想的属性：它可以扩展到数百个时间序列，支持预测和插值，可以处理不规则和不均匀的采样数据，并且可以在训练过程中无缝地适应丢失的数据。我们从经验上证明了这些属性，并表明我们的模型在多个现实世界数据集上产生了最新的预测。

The cyber-physical convergence is opening up new business opportunities for industrial operators. The need for deep integration of the cyber and the physical worlds establishes a rich business agenda towards consolidating new system and network engineering approaches. This revolution would not be possible without the rich and heterogeneous sources of data, as well as the ability of their intelligent exploitation, mainly due to the fact that data will serve as a fundamental resource to promote Industry 4.0. One of the most fruitful research and practice areas emerging from this data-rich, cyber-physical, smart factory environment is the data-driven process monitoring field, which applies machine learning methodologies to enable predictive maintenance applications. In this paper, we examine popular time series forecasting techniques as well as supervised machine learning algorithms in the applied context of Industry 4.0, by transforming and preprocessing the historical industrial dataset of a packing machine's operational state recordings (real data coming from the production line of a manufacturing plant from the food and beverage domain). In our methodology, we use only a single signal concerning the machine's operational status to make our predictions, without considering other operational variables or fault and warning signals, hence its characterization as ``agnostic''. In this respect, the results demonstrate that the adopted methods achieve a quite promising performance on three targeted use cases.

COVID-19的大流行提出了对多个领域决策者的流行预测的重要性，从公共卫生到整个经济。虽然预测流行进展经常被概念化为类似于天气预测，但是它具有一些关键的差异，并且仍然是一项非平凡的任务。疾病的传播受到人类行为，病原体动态，天气和环境条件的多种混杂因素的影响。由于政府公共卫生和资助机构的倡议，捕获以前无法观察到的方面的丰富数据来源的可用性增加了研究的兴趣。这尤其是在“以数据为中心”的解决方案上进行的一系列工作，这些解决方案通过利用非传统数据源以及AI和机器学习的最新创新来增强我们的预测能力的潜力。这项调查研究了各种数据驱动的方法论和实践进步，并介绍了一个概念框架来导航它们。首先，我们列举了与流行病预测相关的大量流行病学数据集和新的数据流，捕获了各种因素，例如有症状的在线调查，零售和商业，流动性，基因组学数据等。接下来，我们将讨论关注最近基于数据驱动的统计和深度学习方法的方法和建模范式，以及将机械模型知识域知识与统计方法的有效性和灵活性相结合的新型混合模型类别。我们还讨论了这些预测系统的现实部署中出现的经验和挑战，包括预测信息。最后，我们重点介绍了整个预测管道中发现的一些挑战和开放问题。

社交媒体网络已成为人们生活的重要方面，它是其思想，观点和情感的平台。因此，自动化情绪分析（SA）对于以其他信息来源无法识别人们的感受至关重要。对这些感觉的分析揭示了各种应用，包括品牌评估，YouTube电影评论和医疗保健应用。随着社交媒体的不断发展，人们以不同形式发布大量信息，包括文本，照片，音频和视频。因此，传统的SA算法已变得有限，因为它们不考虑其他方式的表现力。通过包括来自各种物质来源的此类特征，这些多模式数据流提供了新的机会，以优化基于文本的SA之外的预期结果。我们的研究重点是多模式SA的最前沿领域，该领域研究了社交媒体网络上发布的视觉和文本数据。许多人更有可能利用这些信息在这些平台上表达自己。为了作为这个快速增长的领域的学者资源，我们介绍了文本和视觉SA的全面概述，包括数据预处理，功能提取技术，情感基准数据集以及适合每个字段的多重分类方法的疗效。我们还简要介绍了最常用的数据融合策略，并提供了有关Visual Textual SA的现有研究的摘要。最后，我们重点介绍了最重大的挑战，并调查了一些重要的情感应用程序。

基于预测方法的深度学习已成为时间序列预测或预测的许多应用中的首选方法，通常通常优于其他方法。因此，在过去的几年中，这些方法现在在大规模的工业预测应用中无处不在，并且一直在预测竞赛（例如M4和M5）中排名最佳。这种实践上的成功进一步提高了学术兴趣，以理解和改善深厚的预测方法。在本文中，我们提供了该领域的介绍和概述：我们为深入预测的重要构建块提出了一定深度的深入预测；随后，我们使用这些构建块，调查了最近的深度预测文献的广度。

The International Workshop on Reading Music Systems (WoRMS) is a workshop that tries to connect researchers who develop systems for reading music, such as in the field of Optical Music Recognition, with other researchers and practitioners that could benefit from such systems, like librarians or musicologists. The relevant topics of interest for the workshop include, but are not limited to: Music reading systems; Optical music recognition; Datasets and performance evaluation; Image processing on music scores; Writer identification; Authoring, editing, storing and presentation systems for music scores; Multi-modal systems; Novel input-methods for music to produce written music; Web-based Music Information Retrieval services; Applications and projects; Use-cases related to written music. These are the proceedings of the 3rd International Workshop on Reading Music Systems, held in Alicante on the 23rd of July 2021.

为了将时尚服装视为美学上的令人愉悦，构成它们的服装需要在视觉方面（例如样式，类别和颜色）兼容。随着计算机视觉深度学习模型的出现和无所不知，人们对视觉兼容检测的任务也增加了兴趣，目的是开发优质的时尚服装推荐系统。先前的作品将视觉兼容性定义为二进制分类任务，而衣服中的项目被认为是完全兼容或完全不相容的。但是，这不适用于用户创建自己的服装的服装制造商应用程序，并且需要知道哪些特定项目可能与其余的服装不相容。为了解决这个问题，我们提出了针对两个任务进行优化的视觉不兼容变压器（Victor）：1）总体兼容性作为回归和2）检测不匹配项目。与以前的作品依赖于来自Imagenet预测模型的功能提取或端到端的微调不同，我们利用了时尚特定于时尚的对比语言图像预训练来进行微调计算机视觉神经网络在时尚图像上。此外，我们基于Polyvore Outfit基准测试，以产生部分不匹配的服装，创建一个称为Polyvore-Misfits的新数据集，该数据集用于训练Victor。一系列消融和比较分析表明，所提出的体系结构可以竞争，甚至超过Polyvore数据集上的最新目前，同时将实例的浮动操作减少88％，从而在高性能和效率之间达到平衡。

Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having the right inventory available at the right time at the right place. In this paper we propose DeepAR, a methodology for producing accurate probabilistic forecasts, based on training an auto-regressive recurrent network model on a large number of related time series. We demonstrate how by applying deep learning techniques to forecasting, one can overcome many of the challenges faced by widely-used classical approaches to the problem. We show through extensive empirical evaluation on several real-world forecasting data sets accuracy improvements of around 15% compared to state-of-the-art methods.

在这项工作中，我们将时间系列预测解决为计算机视觉任务。我们将输入数据捕获为图像并培训模型以产生后续图像。这种方法导致预测分布而不是点的值。为了评估我们方法的稳健性和质量，我们检查各种数据集和多个评估指标。我们的实验表明，我们的预测工具对循环数据有效，但对于股票价格的不规则数据有点少。重要的是，在使用基于图像的评估指标时，我们发现我们的方法以优于各种基线，包括Arima，以及我们的深度学习方法的数值变化。

Concept drift primarily refers to an online supervised learning scenario when the relation between the input data and the target variable changes over time. Assuming a general knowledge of supervised learning in this paper we characterize adaptive learning process, categorize existing strategies for handling concept drift, overview the most representative, distinct and popular techniques and algorithms, discuss evaluation methodology of adaptive algorithms, and present a set of illustrative applications. The survey covers the different facets of concept drift in an integrated way to reflect on the existing scattered state-of-the-art. Thus, it aims at providing a comprehensive introduction to the concept drift adaptation for researchers, industry analysts and practitioners.

投资专业人员依靠将公司收入推送到未来（即收入预测）来近似规模的估值（高增长阶段的私人公司）并为他们的投资决定提供了信息。这项任务是手动和经验性的，使预测质量在很大程度上取决于投资专业人员的经验和见解。此外，关于规模的财务数据通常是专有，昂贵和稀缺的，排除了广泛采用数据驱动的方法。为此，我们提出了一种模拟的收入外推（SIRE）算法，该算法在小型数据集和短时间序列上产生精细颗粒的长期收入预测。父亲将收入动力学建模为线性动力学系统（LDS），该系统使用EM算法解决。主要的创新在于如何在培训和推论过程中获得嘈杂的收入测量。 Sire为在各个部门运作并提供置信度估计的规模工作。关于两项实际任务的定量实验表明，父亲大大超过了基线方法。当父亲从短时间序列中推断出来并长期预测时，我们还会观察到高性能。绩效效率的平衡和结果的解释性也得到了经验验证。从投资专业人员的角度进行评估，父亲可以精确地找到在2至5年内具有巨大潜在回报的规模。此外，我们的定性检查说明了父亲收入预测的一些有利属性。