In this paper, we consider incorporating data associated with the sun's north and south polar field strengths to improve solar flare prediction performance using machine learning models. When used to supplement local data from active regions on the photospheric magnetic field of the sun, the polar field data provides global information to the predictor. While such global features have been previously proposed for predicting the next solar cycle's intensity, in this paper we propose using them to help classify individual solar flares. We conduct experiments using HMI data employing four different machine learning algorithms that can exploit polar field information. Additionally, we propose a novel probabilistic mixture of experts model that can simply and effectively incorporate polar field data and provide on-par prediction performance with state-of-the-art solar flare prediction algorithms such as the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Our experimental results indicate the usefulness of the polar field data for solar flare prediction, which can improve Heidke Skill Score (HSS2) by as much as 10.1%.

太阳耀斑，尤其是M级和X级耀斑，通常与冠状质量弹出（CMES）有关。它们是太空天气影响的最重要来源，可能会严重影响近地环境。因此，必须预测耀斑（尤其是X级），以减轻其破坏性和危险后果。在这里，我们介绍了几种统计和机器学习方法，以预测AR的耀斑指数（FI），这些方法通过考虑到一定时间间隔内的不同类耀斑的数量来量化AR的耀斑生产力。具体而言，我们的样本包括2010年5月至2017年12月在太阳能磁盘上出现的563个AR。25个磁性参数，由空中震动和磁性成像器（HMI）的太空天气HMI活性区域（Sharp）提供的太阳能动力学观测值（HMI）。 （SDO），表征了代理中存储在ARS中的冠状磁能，并用作预测因子。我们研究了这些尖锐的参数与ARS的FI与机器学习算法（样条回归）和重采样方法（合成少数群体过度采样技术，用于使用高斯噪声回归的合成少数群体过度采样技术，smogn简短）。基于既定关系，我们能够在接下来的1天内预测给定AR的FIS值。与其他4种流行的机器学习算法相比，我们的方法提高了FI预测的准确性，尤其是对于大型FI。此外，我们根据Borda Count方法从由9种不同的机器学习方法渲染的等级计算出尖锐参数的重要性。

The success of machine learning algorithms generally depends on data representation, and we hypothesize that this is because different representations can entangle and hide more or less the different explanatory factors of variation behind the data. Although specific domain knowledge can be used to help design representations, learning with generic priors can also be used, and the quest for AI is motivating the design of more powerful representation-learning algorithms implementing such priors. This paper reviews recent work in the area of unsupervised feature learning and deep learning, covering advances in probabilistic models, auto-encoders, manifold learning, and deep networks. This motivates longer-term unanswered questions about the appropriate objectives for learning good representations, for computing representations (i.e., inference), and the geometrical connections between representation learning, density estimation and manifold learning.

我们的目标是量化热带旋风（TC）卫星图像中的时空模式是否以及如何量化，信号是即将发生的快速强度变化事件。为了解决这个问题，我们提出了一个新的非参数测试，对图像的时间序列和一系列二进制事件标签之间的关联测试。我们询问在事件之前与非事件之前的图像的24小时序列之间的分布差异（相关但分布相同）之间是否存在差异。通过将统计检验重写为回归问题，我们利用神经网络来推断TC对流的结构演变模式，这些模式代表了促进快速强度变化事件的导致。附近序列之间的依赖性通过估计标签系列边际分布的自举程序来处理。我们证明，只要标签系列的分布得到充分估计，就可以保证I型错误控制，这可以通过二进制TC事件标签的广泛历史数据更容易。我们表明的经验证据表明，我们提出的方法确定了与快速强化风险相关的红外图像原型，通常以随着时间的推移深度或深化核心对流标记。这样的结果为改善快速强化的预测提供了基础。

了解极端事件及其可能性是研究气候变化影响，风险评估，适应和保护生物的关键。在这项工作中，我们开发了一种方法来构建极端热浪的预测模型。这些模型基于卷积神经网络，对极长的8，000年气候模型输出进行了培训。由于极端事件之间的关系本质上是概率的，因此我们强调概率预测和验证。我们证明，深度神经网络适用于法国持续持续14天的热浪，快速动态驱动器提前15天（500 hpa地球电位高度场），并且在慢速较长的交货时间内，慢速物理时间驱动器（土壤水分）。该方法很容易实现和通用。我们发现，深神经网络选择了与北半球波数字3模式相关的极端热浪。我们发现，当将2米温度场添加到500 HPA地球电位高度和土壤水分场中时，2米温度场不包含任何新的有用统计信息。主要的科学信息是，训练深层神经网络预测极端热浪的发生是在严重缺乏数据的情况下发生的。我们建议大多数其他应用在大规模的大气和气候现象中都是如此。我们讨论了处理缺乏数据制度的观点，例如罕见的事件模拟，以及转移学习如何在后一种任务中发挥作用。

Sunquakes are seismic emissions visible on the solar surface, associated with some solar flares. Although discovered in 1998, they have only recently become a more commonly detected phenomenon. Despite the availability of several manual detection guidelines, to our knowledge, the astrophysical data produced for sunquakes is new to the field of Machine Learning. Detecting sunquakes is a daunting task for human operators and this work aims to ease and, if possible, to improve their detection. Thus, we introduce a dataset constructed from acoustic egression-power maps of solar active regions obtained for Solar Cycles 23 and 24 using the holography method. We then present a pedagogical approach to the application of machine learning representation methods for sunquake detection using AutoEncoders, Contrastive Learning, Object Detection and recurrent techniques, which we enhance by introducing several custom domain-specific data augmentation transformations. We address the main challenges of the automated sunquake detection task, namely the very high noise patterns in and outside the active region shadow and the extreme class imbalance given by the limited number of frames that present sunquake signatures. With our trained models, we find temporal and spatial locations of peculiar acoustic emission and qualitatively associate them to eruptive and high energy emission. While noting that these models are still in a prototype stage and there is much room for improvement in metrics and bias levels, we hypothesize that their agreement on example use cases has the potential to enable detection of weak solar acoustic manifestations.

冠状质量弹出（CME）是最地理化的空间天气现象，与大型地磁风暴有关，有可能引起电信，卫星网络中断，电网损失和故障的干扰。因此，考虑到这些风暴对人类活动的潜在影响，对CME的地理效果的准确预测至关重要。这项工作着重于在接近太阳CME的白光冠状动脉数据集中训练的不同机器学习方法，以估计这种新爆发的弹出是否有可能诱导地磁活动。我们使用逻辑回归，k-nearest邻居，支持向量机，向前的人工神经网络以及整体模型开发了二进制分类模型。目前，我们限制了我们的预测专门使用太阳能发作参数，以确保延长警告时间。我们讨论了这项任务的主要挑战，即我们数据集中的地理填充和无效事件的数量以及它们的众多相似之处以及可用变量数量有限的极端失衡。我们表明，即使在这种情况下，这些模型也可以达到足够的命中率。

台湾对全球碎片流的敏感性和死亡人数最高。台湾现有的碎屑流警告系统，该系统使用降雨量的时间加权度量，当该措施超过预定义的阈值时，会导致警报。但是，该系统会产生许多错误的警报，并错过了实际碎屑流的很大一部分。为了改善该系统，我们实施了五个机器学习模型，以输入历史降雨数据并预测是否会在选定的时间内发生碎屑流。我们发现，随机的森林模型在五个模型中表现最好，并优于台湾现有系统。此外，我们确定了与碎屑流的发生密切相关的降雨轨迹，并探索了缺失碎屑流的风险与频繁的虚假警报之间的权衡。这些结果表明，仅在小时降雨数据中训练的机器学习模型的潜力可以挽救生命，同时减少虚假警报。

提出了一个深度学习模型，以便在未来60分钟的五分钟时间分辨率下以闪电的形式出现。该模型基于反复横向的结构，该结构使其能够识别并预测对流的时空发展，包括雷暴细胞的运动，生长和衰变。预测是在固定网格上执行的，而无需使用风暴对象检测和跟踪。从瑞士和周围的区域收集的输入数据包括地面雷达数据，可见/红外卫星数据以及衍生的云产品，闪电检测，数值天气预测和数字高程模型数据。我们分析了不同的替代损失功能，班级加权策略和模型特征，为将来的研究提供了指南，以最佳地选择损失功能，并正确校准其模型的概率预测。基于这些分析，我们在这项研究中使用焦点损失，但得出结论，它仅在交叉熵方面提供了较小的好处，如果模型的重新校准不实用，这是一个可行的选择。该模型在60分钟的现有周期内实现了0.45的像素临界成功指数（CSI）为0.45，以预测8 km的闪电发生，范围从5分钟的CSI到5分钟的提前时间到CSI到CSI的0.32在A处。收货时间60分钟。

Wind power forecasting helps with the planning for the power systems by contributing to having a higher level of certainty in decision-making. Due to the randomness inherent to meteorological events (e.g., wind speeds), making highly accurate long-term predictions for wind power can be extremely difficult. One approach to remedy this challenge is to utilize weather information from multiple points across a geographical grid to obtain a holistic view of the wind patterns, along with temporal information from the previous power outputs of the wind farms. Our proposed CNN-RNN architecture combines convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to extract spatial and temporal information from multi-dimensional input data to make day-ahead predictions. In this regard, our method incorporates an ultra-wide learning view, combining data from multiple numerical weather prediction models, wind farms, and geographical locations. Additionally, we experiment with global forecasting approaches to understand the impact of training the same model over the datasets obtained from multiple different wind farms, and we employ a method where spatial information extracted from convolutional layers is passed to a tree ensemble (e.g., Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM)) instead of fully connected layers. The results show that our proposed CNN-RNN architecture outperforms other models such as LGBM, Extra Tree regressor and linear regression when trained globally, but fails to replicate such performance when trained individually on each farm. We also observe that passing the spatial information from CNN to LGBM improves its performance, providing further evidence of CNN's spatial feature extraction capabilities.

预测基金绩效对投资者和基金经理都是有益的，但这是一项艰巨的任务。在本文中，我们测试了深度学习模型是否比传统统计技术更准确地预测基金绩效。基金绩效通常通过Sharpe比率进行评估，该比例代表了风险调整的绩效，以确保基金之间有意义的可比性。我们根据每月收益率数据序列数据计算了年度夏普比率，该数据的时间序列数据为600多个投资于美国上市大型股票的开放式共同基金投资。我们发现，经过现代贝叶斯优化训练的长期短期记忆（LSTM）和封闭式复发单元（GRUS）深度学习方法比传统统计量相比，预测基金的Sharpe比率更高。结合了LSTM和GRU的预测的合奏方法，可以实现所有模型的最佳性能。有证据表明，深度学习和结合能提供有希望的解决方案，以应对基金绩效预测的挑战。

在2015年和2019年之间，地平线的成员2020年资助的创新培训网络名为“Amva4newphysics”，研究了高能量物理问题的先进多变量分析方法和统计学习工具的定制和应用，并开发了完全新的。其中许多方法已成功地用于提高Cern大型Hadron撞机的地图集和CMS实验所执行的数据分析的敏感性;其他几个人，仍然在测试阶段，承诺进一步提高基本物理参数测量的精确度以及新现象的搜索范围。在本文中，在研究和开发的那些中，最相关的新工具以及对其性能的评估。

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. Recent studies have shown promising results using machine learning (ML) models to advance subseasonal forecasting (SSF), but several open questions remain. First, several past approaches use the average of an ensemble of physics-based forecasts as an input feature of these models. However, ensemble forecasts contain information that can aid prediction beyond only the ensemble mean. Second, past methods have focused on average performance, whereas forecasts of extreme events are far more important for planning and mitigation purposes. Third, climate forecasts correspond to a spatially-varying collection of forecasts, and different methods account for spatial variability in the response differently. Trade-offs between different approaches may be mitigated with model stacking. This paper describes the application of a variety of ML methods used to predict monthly average precipitation and two meter temperature using physics-based predictions (ensemble forecasts) and observational data such as relative humidity, pressure at sea level, or geopotential height, two weeks in advance for the whole continental United States. Regression, quantile regression, and tercile classification tasks using linear models, random forests, convolutional neural networks, and stacked models are considered. The proposed models outperform common baselines such as historical averages (or quantiles) and ensemble averages (or quantiles). This paper further includes an investigation of feature importance, trade-offs between using the full ensemble or only the ensemble average, and different modes of accounting for spatial variability.

基于预测方法的深度学习已成为时间序列预测或预测的许多应用中的首选方法，通常通常优于其他方法。因此，在过去的几年中，这些方法现在在大规模的工业预测应用中无处不在，并且一直在预测竞赛（例如M4和M5）中排名最佳。这种实践上的成功进一步提高了学术兴趣，以理解和改善深厚的预测方法。在本文中，我们提供了该领域的介绍和概述：我们为深入预测的重要构建块提出了一定深度的深入预测；随后，我们使用这些构建块，调查了最近的深度预测文献的广度。

大多数机器学习算法由一个或多个超参数配置，必须仔细选择并且通常会影响性能。为避免耗时和不可递销的手动试验和错误过程来查找性能良好的超参数配置，可以采用各种自动超参数优化（HPO）方法，例如，基于监督机器学习的重新采样误差估计。本文介绍了HPO后，本文审查了重要的HPO方法，如网格或随机搜索，进化算法，贝叶斯优化，超带和赛车。它给出了关于进行HPO的重要选择的实用建议，包括HPO算法本身，性能评估，如何将HPO与ML管道，运行时改进和并行化结合起来。这项工作伴随着附录，其中包含关于R和Python的特定软件包的信息，以及用于特定学习算法的信息和推荐的超参数搜索空间。我们还提供笔记本电脑，这些笔记本展示了这项工作的概念作为补充文件。

在许多环境环境中的风险管理需要了解驱动极端事件的机制。量化这种风险的有用指标是响应变量的极端分位数，该变量是基于描述气候，生物圈和环境状态的预测变量的。通常，这些分位数位于可观察数据的范围之内，因此，为了估算，需要在回归框架内规范参数极值模型。在这种情况下，经典方法利用预测变量和响应变量之间的线性或加性关系，并在其预测能力或计算效率中受苦；此外，它们的简单性不太可能捕获导致极端野火创造的真正复杂结构。在本文中，我们提出了一个新的方法学框架，用于使用人工中性网络执行极端分位回归，该网络能够捕获复杂的非线性关系并很好地扩展到高维数据。神经网络的“黑匣子”性质意味着它们缺乏从业者通常会喜欢的可解释性的理想特征。因此，我们将线性和加法模型的各个方面与深度学习相结合，以创建可解释的神经网络，这些神经网络可用于统计推断，但保留了高预测准确性。为了补充这种方法，我们进一步提出了一个新颖的点过程模型，以克服与广义极值分布类别相关的有限的下端问题。我们的统一框架的功效在具有高维预测器集的美国野火数据上说明了，我们说明了基于线性和基于样条的回归技术的预测性能的大幅改进。

Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-ofthe-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8,730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.

“轨迹”是指由地理空间中的移动物体产生的迹线，通常由一系列按时间顺序排列的点表示，其中每个点由地理空间坐标集和时间戳组成。位置感应和无线通信技术的快速进步使我们能够收集和存储大量的轨迹数据。因此，许多研究人员使用轨迹数据来分析各种移动物体的移动性。在本文中，我们专注于“城市车辆轨迹”，这是指城市交通网络中车辆的轨迹，我们专注于“城市车辆轨迹分析”。城市车辆轨迹分析提供了前所未有的机会，可以了解城市交通网络中的车辆运动模式，包括以用户为中心的旅行经验和系统范围的时空模式。城市车辆轨迹数据的时空特征在结构上相互关联，因此，许多先前的研究人员使用了各种方法来理解这种结构。特别是，由于其强大的函数近似和特征表示能力，深度学习模型是由于许多研究人员的注意。因此，本文的目的是开发基于深度学习的城市车辆轨迹分析模型，以更好地了解城市交通网络的移动模式。特别是，本文重点介绍了两项研究主题，具有很高的必要性，重要性和适用性：下一个位置预测，以及合成轨迹生成。在这项研究中，我们向城市车辆轨迹分析提供了各种新型模型，使用深度学习。

Solar activity is usually caused by the evolution of solar magnetic fields. Magnetic field parameters derived from photospheric vector magnetograms of solar active regions have been used to analyze and forecast eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. Unfortunately, the most recent solar cycle 24 was relatively weak with few large flares, though it is the only solar cycle in which consistent time-sequence vector magnetograms have been available through the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) since its launch in 2010. In this paper, we look into another major instrument, namely the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) from 1996 to 2010. The data archive of SOHO/MDI covers more active solar cycle 23 with many large flares. However, SOHO/MDI data only has line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms. We propose a new deep learning method, named MagNet, to learn from combined LOS magnetograms, Bx and By taken by SDO/HMI along with H-alpha observations collected by the Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO), and to generate vector components Bx' and By', which would form vector magnetograms with observed LOS data. In this way, we can expand the availability of vector magnetograms to the period from 1996 to present. Experimental results demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method. To our knowledge, this is the first time that deep learning has been used to generate photospheric vector magnetograms of solar active regions for SOHO/MDI using SDO/HMI and H-alpha data.

We introduce an ensemble learning method based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for predicting conditional expected stock returns given stock-level and macro-economic information. Our ensemble learning approach significantly reduces the computational complexity inherent in GPR inference and lends itself to general online learning tasks. We conduct an empirical analysis on a large cross-section of US stocks from 1962 to 2016. We find that our method dominates existing machine learning models statistically and economically in terms of out-of-sample $R$-squared and Sharpe ratio of prediction-sorted portfolios. Exploiting the Bayesian nature of GPR, we introduce the mean-variance optimal portfolio with respect to the predictive uncertainty distribution of the expected stock returns. It appeals to an uncertainty averse investor and significantly dominates the equal- and value-weighted prediction-sorted portfolios, which outperform the S&P 500.