Forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; EC for short) can provide a basis for the establishment of maritime-disaster warning systems, but they contain some systematic biases.The fifth-generation EC atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data have high accuracy, but are delayed by about 5 days. To overcome this issue, a spatiotemporal deep-learning method could be used for nonlinear mapping between EC and ERA5 data, which would improve the quality of EC wind forecast data in real time. In this study, we developed the Multi-Task-Double Encoder Trajectory Gated Recurrent Unit (MT-DETrajGRU) model, which uses an improved double-encoder forecaster architecture to model the spatiotemporal sequence of the U and V components of the wind field; we designed a multi-task learning loss function to correct wind speed and wind direction simultaneously using only one model. The study area was the western North Pacific (WNP), and real-time rolling bias corrections were made for 10-day wind-field forecasts released by the EC between December 2020 and November 2021, divided into four seasons. Compared with the original EC forecasts, after correction using the MT-DETrajGRU model the wind speed and wind direction biases in the four seasons were reduced by 8-11% and 9-14%, respectively. In addition, the proposed method modelled the data uniformly under different weather conditions. The correction performance under normal and typhoon conditions was comparable, indicating that the data-driven mode constructed here is robust and generalizable.

Inductive reasoning is a core component of human intelligence. In the past research of inductive reasoning within computer science, logic language is used as representations of knowledge (facts and rules, more specifically). However, logic language can cause systematic problems for inductive reasoning such as disability of handling raw input such as natural language, sensitiveness to mislabeled data, and incapacity to handle ambiguous input. To this end, we propose a new task, which is to induce natural language rules from natural language facts, and create a dataset termed DEER containing 1.2k rule-fact pairs for the task, where rules and facts are written in natural language. New automatic metrics are also proposed and analysed for the evaluation of this task. With DEER, we investigate a modern approach for inductive reasoning where we use natural language as representation for knowledge instead of logic language and use pretrained language models as ''reasoners''. Moreover, we provide the first and comprehensive analysis of how well pretrained language models can induce natural language rules from natural language facts. We also propose a new framework drawing insights from philosophy literature for this task, which we show in the experiment section that surpasses baselines in both automatic and human evaluations.

Quadrotors with the ability to perch on moving inclined surfaces can save energy and extend their travel distance by leveraging ground vehicles. Achieving dynamic perching places high demands on the performance of trajectory planning and terminal state accuracy in SE(3). However, in the perching process, uncertainties in target surface prediction, tracking control and external disturbances may cause trajectory planning failure or lead to unacceptable terminal errors. To address these challenges, we first propose a trajectory planner that considers adaptation to uncertainties in target prediction and tracking control. To facilitate this work, the reachable set of quadrotors' states is first analyzed. The states whose reachable sets possess the largest coverage probability for uncertainty targets, are defined as optimal waypoints. Subsequently, an approach to seek local optimal waypoints for static and moving uncertainty targets is proposed. A real-time trajectory planner based on optimized waypoints is developed accordingly. Secondly, thrust regulation is also implemented in the terminal attitude tracking stage to handle external disturbances. When a quadrotor's attitude is commanded to align with target surfaces, the thrust is optimized to minimize terminal errors. This makes the terminal position and velocity be controlled in closed-loop manner. Therefore, the resistance to disturbances and terminal accuracy is improved. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate that our methods can improve the accuracy of terminal states under uncertainties. The success rate is approximately increased by $50\%$ compared to the two-end planner without thrust regulation. Perching on the rear window of a car is also achieved using our proposed heterogeneous cooperation system outdoors. This validates the feasibility and practicality of our methods.

Large pretrained language models have shown surprising In-Context Learning (ICL) ability. With a few demonstration input-label pairs, they can predict the label for an unseen input without additional parameter updates. Despite the great success in performance, the working mechanism of ICL still remains an open problem. In order to better understand how ICL works, this paper explains language models as meta-optimizers and understands ICL as a kind of implicit finetuning. Theoretically, we figure out that the Transformer attention has a dual form of gradient descent based optimization. On top of it, we understand ICL as follows: GPT first produces meta-gradients according to the demonstration examples, and then these meta-gradients are applied to the original GPT to build an ICL model. Experimentally, we comprehensively compare the behavior of ICL and explicit finetuning based on real tasks to provide empirical evidence that supports our understanding. The results prove that ICL behaves similarly to explicit finetuning at the prediction level, the representation level, and the attention behavior level. Further, inspired by our understanding of meta-optimization, we design a momentum-based attention by analogy with the momentum-based gradient descent algorithm. Its consistently better performance over vanilla attention supports our understanding again from another aspect, and more importantly, it shows the potential to utilize our understanding for future model designing.

Position modeling plays a critical role in Transformers. In this paper, we focus on length extrapolation, i.e., training on short texts while evaluating longer sequences. We define attention resolution as an indicator of extrapolation. Then we propose two designs to improve the above metric of Transformers. Specifically, we introduce a relative position embedding to explicitly maximize attention resolution. Moreover, we use blockwise causal attention during inference for better resolution. We evaluate different Transformer variants with language modeling. Experimental results show that our model achieves strong performance in both interpolation and extrapolation settings. The code will be available at https://aka.ms/LeX-Transformer.

Pre-trained models have achieved remarkable success in natural language processing (NLP). However, existing pre-training methods underutilize the benefits of language understanding for generation. Inspired by the idea of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), we propose a GAN-style model for encoder-decoder pre-training by introducing an auxiliary discriminator, unifying the ability of language understanding and generation in a single model. Our model, named as GanLM, is trained with two pre-training objectives: replaced token detection and replaced token denoising. Specifically, given masked source sentences, the generator outputs the target distribution and the discriminator predicts whether the target sampled tokens from distribution are incorrect. The target sentence is replaced with misclassified tokens to construct noisy previous context, which is used to generate the gold sentence. In general, both tasks improve the ability of language understanding and generation by selectively using the denoising data. Extensive experiments in language generation benchmarks show that GanLM with the powerful language understanding capability outperforms various strong pre-trained language models (PLMs) and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Well-designed prompts can guide text-to-image models to generate amazing images. However, the performant prompts are often model-specific and misaligned with user input. Instead of laborious human engineering, we propose prompt adaptation, a general framework that automatically adapts original user input to model-preferred prompts. Specifically, we first perform supervised fine-tuning with a pretrained language model on a small collection of manually engineered prompts. Then we use reinforcement learning to explore better prompts. We define a reward function that encourages the policy to generate more aesthetically pleasing images while preserving the original user intentions. Experimental results on Stable Diffusion show that our method outperforms manual prompt engineering in terms of both automatic metrics and human preference ratings. Moreover, reinforcement learning further boosts performance, especially on out-of-domain prompts. The pretrained checkpoints are available at https://aka.ms/promptist. The demo can be found at https://aka.ms/promptist-demo.

The number of international benchmarking competitions is steadily increasing in various fields of machine learning (ML) research and practice. So far, however, little is known about the common practice as well as bottlenecks faced by the community in tackling the research questions posed. To shed light on the status quo of algorithm development in the specific field of biomedical imaging analysis, we designed an international survey that was issued to all participants of challenges conducted in conjunction with the IEEE ISBI 2021 and MICCAI 2021 conferences (80 competitions in total). The survey covered participants' expertise and working environments, their chosen strategies, as well as algorithm characteristics. A median of 72% challenge participants took part in the survey. According to our results, knowledge exchange was the primary incentive (70%) for participation, while the reception of prize money played only a minor role (16%). While a median of 80 working hours was spent on method development, a large portion of participants stated that they did not have enough time for method development (32%). 25% perceived the infrastructure to be a bottleneck. Overall, 94% of all solutions were deep learning-based. Of these, 84% were based on standard architectures. 43% of the respondents reported that the data samples (e.g., images) were too large to be processed at once. This was most commonly addressed by patch-based training (69%), downsampling (37%), and solving 3D analysis tasks as a series of 2D tasks. K-fold cross-validation on the training set was performed by only 37% of the participants and only 50% of the participants performed ensembling based on multiple identical models (61%) or heterogeneous models (39%). 48% of the respondents applied postprocessing steps.

Large language models have exhibited intriguing in-context learning capability, achieving promising zero- and few-shot performance without updating the parameters. However, conventional in-context learning is usually restricted by length constraints, rendering it ineffective to absorb supervision from a large number of examples. In order to go beyond few shots, we introduce structured prompting that breaks the length limit and scales in-context learning to thousands of examples. Specifically, demonstration examples are separately encoded with well-designed position embeddings, and then they are jointly attended by the test example using a rescaled attention mechanism. So we can scale the number of exemplars with linear complexity instead of quadratic complexity with respect to length. Experimental results on a diverse set of tasks show that our approach improves end-task performance and reduces evaluation variance over conventional in-context learning as the number of demonstration examples increases. Code has been released at https://aka.ms/structured-prompting.

We propose eXtensible Prompt (X-Prompt) for prompting a large language model (LLM) beyond natural language (NL). X-Prompt instructs an LLM with not only NL but also an extensible vocabulary of imaginary words that are introduced to help represent what NL words hardly describe, allowing a prompt to be more descriptive. Like NL prompts, X-Prompt is out-of-distribution (OOD) robust, for which we propose context-guided learning with prompt augmentation to learn its imaginary words for general usability, enabling them to use in different prompt contexts for fine-grain specifications. The promising results of X-Prompt demonstrate its potential of approaching advanced interaction between humans and LLMs to bridge their communication gap.