Test log-likelihood is commonly used to compare different models of the same data and different approximate inference algorithms for fitting the same probabilistic model. We present simple examples demonstrating how comparisons based on test log-likelihood can contradict comparisons according to other objectives. Specifically, our examples show that (i) conclusions about forecast accuracy based on test log-likelihood comparisons may not agree with conclusions based on other distributional quantities like means; and (ii) that approximate Bayesian inference algorithms that attain higher test log-likelihoods need not also yield more accurate posterior approximations.

Default implementations of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) represent categorical predictors using several binary indicators, one for each level of each categorical predictor. Regression trees built with these indicators partition the levels using a ``remove one a time strategy.'' Unfortunately, the vast majority of partitions of the levels cannot be built with this strategy, severely limiting BART's ability to ``borrow strength'' across groups of levels. We overcome this limitation with a new class of regression tree and a new decision rule prior that can assign multiple levels to both the left and right child of a decision node. Motivated by spatial applications with areal data, we introduce a further decision rule prior that partitions the areas into spatially contiguous regions by deleting edges from random spanning trees of a suitably defined network. We implemented our new regression tree priors in the flexBART package, which, compared to existing implementations, often yields improved out-of-sample predictive performance without much additional computational burden. We demonstrate the efficacy of flexBART using examples from baseball and the spatiotemporal modeling of crime.

使用深度学习方法（DL）方法的结核病（TB）自动分割（TB） - 一致的病变（CXR）可以帮助减少放射科医生的努力，补充临床决策，并有可能改善患者治疗。文献中的大多数作品使用粗边界框注释讨论培训自动分割模型。但是，边界框注释的粒度可能导致在像素级别上包含相当一部分假阳性和负面因素，从而可能对整体语义分割性能产生不利影响。这项研究（i）评估了使用TB一致性病变的细粒注释和（ii）U-NET模型变体的培训和构造的好处CXR。我们使用多种集合方法（例如位和位或位，位 - 最大值和堆叠）评估了分割性能。我们观察到，与单个组成模型和其他集合方法相比，堆叠合奏表现出优异的分割性能（骰子得分：0.5743，95％置信区间：（0.4055,0.7431））。据我们所知，这是第一个应用合奏学习来改善细粒度元素一致性病变细分性能的研究。

（非）神经网络到小，对抗像素明智的扰动的鲁棒性，并且最近示出了甚至是随机空间转换（例如，翻译，旋转）恳求理论和经验理解。通过等级模型（例如，STDCNNS，GCNN）和训练增强，通常实现了随机翻译和旋转的空间鲁棒性，而普遍鲁棒性通常通过对抗性训练来实现。在本文中，我们在简单的统计环境中证明了空间和对抗性鲁棒性之间的定量折衷。我们通过展示：（a）随着等效模型的空间稳健性通过逐步培训更大的转化来改善，它们的对抗鲁棒性逐渐恶化，并且（b）随着最先进的强大模型是对抗的具有较大的像素明智的扰动训练，它们的空间鲁棒性逐渐下降。在此权衡中实现帕累托 - 最优性，我们提出了一种基于课程学习的方法，该方法逐步列举更加困难的扰动（空间和对抗性），以同时改善空间和对抗鲁棒性。

Designing experiments often requires balancing between learning about the true treatment effects and earning from allocating more samples to the superior treatment. While optimal algorithms for the Multi-Armed Bandit Problem (MABP) provide allocation policies that optimally balance learning and earning, they tend to be computationally expensive. The Gittins Index (GI) is a solution to the MABP that can simultaneously attain optimality and computationally efficiency goals, and it has been recently used in experiments with Bernoulli and Gaussian rewards. For the first time, we present a modification of the GI rule that can be used in experiments with exponentially-distributed rewards. We report its performance in simulated 2- armed and 3-armed experiments. Compared to traditional non-adaptive designs, our novel GI modified design shows operating characteristics comparable in learning (e.g. statistical power) but substantially better in earning (e.g. direct benefits). This illustrates the potential that designs using a GI approach to allocate participants have to improve participant benefits, increase efficiencies, and reduce experimental costs in adaptive multi-armed experiments with exponential rewards.

Modelling and forecasting real-life human behaviour using online social media is an active endeavour of interest in politics, government, academia, and industry. Since its creation in 2006, Twitter has been proposed as a potential laboratory that could be used to gauge and predict social behaviour. During the last decade, the user base of Twitter has been growing and becoming more representative of the general population. Here we analyse this user base in the context of the 2021 Mexican Legislative Election. To do so, we use a dataset of 15 million election-related tweets in the six months preceding election day. We explore different election models that assign political preference to either the ruling parties or the opposition. We find that models using data with geographical attributes determine the results of the election with better precision and accuracy than conventional polling methods. These results demonstrate that analysis of public online data can outperform conventional polling methods, and that political analysis and general forecasting would likely benefit from incorporating such data in the immediate future. Moreover, the same Twitter dataset with geographical attributes is positively correlated with results from official census data on population and internet usage in Mexico. These findings suggest that we have reached a period in time when online activity, appropriately curated, can provide an accurate representation of offline behaviour.

Existing federated classification algorithms typically assume the local annotations at every client cover the same set of classes. In this paper, we aim to lift such an assumption and focus on a more general yet practical non-IID setting where every client can work on non-identical and even disjoint sets of classes (i.e., client-exclusive classes), and the clients have a common goal which is to build a global classification model to identify the union of these classes. Such heterogeneity in client class sets poses a new challenge: how to ensure different clients are operating in the same latent space so as to avoid the drift after aggregation? We observe that the classes can be described in natural languages (i.e., class names) and these names are typically safe to share with all parties. Thus, we formulate the classification problem as a matching process between data representations and class representations and break the classification model into a data encoder and a label encoder. We leverage the natural-language class names as the common ground to anchor the class representations in the label encoder. In each iteration, the label encoder updates the class representations and regulates the data representations through matching. We further use the updated class representations at each round to annotate data samples for locally-unaware classes according to similarity and distill knowledge to local models. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets show that the proposed method can outperform various classical and state-of-the-art federated learning methods designed for learning with non-IID data.

This is paper for the smooth function approximation by neural networks (NN). Mathematical or physical functions can be replaced by NN models through regression. In this study, we get NNs that generate highly accurate and highly smooth function, which only comprised of a few weight parameters, through discussing a few topics about regression. First, we reinterpret inside of NNs for regression; consequently, we propose a new activation function--integrated sigmoid linear unit (ISLU). Then special charateristics of metadata for regression, which is different from other data like image or sound, is discussed for improving the performance of neural networks. Finally, the one of a simple hierarchical NN that generate models substituting mathematical function is presented, and the new batch concept ``meta-batch" which improves the performance of NN several times more is introduced. The new activation function, meta-batch method, features of numerical data, meta-augmentation with metaparameters, and a structure of NN generating a compact multi-layer perceptron(MLP) are essential in this study.

The existing methods for video anomaly detection mostly utilize videos containing identifiable facial and appearance-based features. The use of videos with identifiable faces raises privacy concerns, especially when used in a hospital or community-based setting. Appearance-based features can also be sensitive to pixel-based noise, straining the anomaly detection methods to model the changes in the background and making it difficult to focus on the actions of humans in the foreground. Structural information in the form of skeletons describing the human motion in the videos is privacy-protecting and can overcome some of the problems posed by appearance-based features. In this paper, we present a survey of privacy-protecting deep learning anomaly detection methods using skeletons extracted from videos. We present a novel taxonomy of algorithms based on the various learning approaches. We conclude that skeleton-based approaches for anomaly detection can be a plausible privacy-protecting alternative for video anomaly detection. Lastly, we identify major open research questions and provide guidelines to address them.

The Government of Kerala had increased the frequency of supply of free food kits owing to the pandemic, however, these items were static and not indicative of the personal preferences of the consumers. This paper conducts a comparative analysis of various clustering techniques on a scaled-down version of a real-world dataset obtained through a conjoint analysis-based survey. Clustering carried out by centroid-based methods such as k means is analyzed and the results are plotted along with SVD, and finally, a conclusion is reached as to which among the two is better. Once the clusters have been formulated, commodities are also decided upon for each cluster. Also, clustering is further enhanced by reassignment, based on a specific cluster loss threshold. Thus, the most efficacious clustering technique for designing a food kit tailored to the needs of individuals is finally obtained.