The stock market prediction has been a traditional yet complex problem researched within diverse research areas and application domains due to its non-linear, highly volatile and complex nature. Existing surveys on stock market prediction often focus on traditional machine learning methods instead of deep learning methods. Deep learning has dominated many domains, gained much success and popularity in recent years in stock market prediction. This motivates us to provide a structured and comprehensive overview of the research on stock market prediction focusing on deep learning techniques. We present four elaborated subtasks of stock market prediction and propose a novel taxonomy to summarize the state-of-the-art models based on deep neural networks from 2011 to 2022. In addition, we also provide detailed statistics on the datasets and evaluation metrics commonly used in the stock market. Finally, we highlight some open issues and point out several future directions by sharing some new perspectives on stock market prediction.
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We present a new algorithm to learn a deep neural network model robust against adversarial attacks. Previous algorithms demonstrate an adversarially trained Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) provides improved robustness. We recognize the adversarial learning approach for approximating the multi-modal posterior distribution of a Bayesian model can lead to mode collapse; consequently, the model's achievements in robustness and performance are sub-optimal. Instead, we first propose preventing mode collapse to better approximate the multi-modal posterior distribution. Second, based on the intuition that a robust model should ignore perturbations and only consider the informative content of the input, we conceptualize and formulate an information gain objective to measure and force the information learned from both benign and adversarial training instances to be similar. Importantly. we prove and demonstrate that minimizing the information gain objective allows the adversarial risk to approach the conventional empirical risk. We believe our efforts provide a step toward a basis for a principled method of adversarially training BNNs. Our model demonstrate significantly improved robustness--up to 20%--compared with adversarial training and Adv-BNN under PGD attacks with 0.035 distortion on both CIFAR-10 and STL-10 datasets.
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从观察数据中恢复基本的定向无环形结构(DAG),由于DAG受限的优化问题的组合性质,因此极具挑战性。最近,通过将DAG约束将DAG的限制定义为平滑的平等性,通常基于邻接矩阵上的多项式,将DAG学习作为连续优化问题。现有方法将非常小的系数放在高阶多项式术语上以进行稳定,因为它们认为由于数字爆炸而导致高阶项上的大系数有害。相反,我们发现,高阶术语上的大系数对DAG学习有益,当邻接矩阵的光谱辐射小时,高阶术语的较大系数可以比小尺寸近似于小的限制。同行。基于此,我们提出了一种具有有效截短的矩阵功率迭代的新型DAG学习方法,以近似于基于几何序列的DAG约束。从经验上讲,我们的DAG学习方法在各种环境中的表现优于先前的最新方法,在结构锤距离上通常以3倍或以上的倍数。
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多源域适应(MSDA)学会了预测目标域数据中的标签,在标记来自多个源域的所有数据并且来自目标域的所有数据的设置下。为了解决这个问题,大多数方法都集中在跨域中学习不变表示。但是,他们的成功严重依赖于标签分布在跨域保持不变的假设。为了减轻它,我们提出了一个新的假设,潜在的协变量移位,其中潜在内容变量的边际分布跨域变化,并且给定标签的条件分布在跨域之间保持不变。我们引入了一个潜在样式变量,以补充潜在因果图作为数据和标签生成过程的潜在内容变量。我们表明,尽管潜在样式变量由于潜在空间中的传输性能而无法识别,但在某些温和条件下,可以将潜在内容变量识别为简单缩放。这激发了我们为MSDA提出一种新颖的方法,该方法在潜在内容变量上学习了不变标签的分布,而不是学习不变表示。与基于不变表示的许多最新方法相比,对模拟和真实数据的经验评估证明了该方法的有效性。
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因果代表学习揭示了低级观察背后的潜在高级因果变量,这对于一组感兴趣的下游任务具有巨大的潜力。尽管如此,从观察到的数据中确定真正的潜在因果表示是一个巨大的挑战。在这项工作中,我们专注于确定潜在的因果变量。为此,我们分析了潜在空间中的三个固有特性,包括传递性,置换和缩放。我们表明,传递性严重阻碍了潜在因果变量的可识别性,而排列和缩放指导指导了识别潜在因果变量的方向。为了打破传递性,我们假设潜在的潜在因果关系是线性高斯模型,其中高斯噪声的权重,平均值和方差受到额外观察到的变量的调节。在这些假设下,我们从理论上表明,潜在因果变量可以识别为微不足道的置换和缩放。基于这个理论结果,我们提出了一种新型方法,称为结构性因果变异自动编码器,该方法直接学习潜在因果变量,以及从潜在因果变量到观察到的映射。关于合成和实际数据的实验结果证明了可识别的结果以及所提出的学习潜在因果变量的能力。
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自然语言处理(NLP)通过分析社交媒体或新闻媒体的文本来证明支持财务决策的巨大潜力。在这项工作中,我们建立了一个平台,可以系统地研究NLP股票自动交易算法。与以前的工作相反,我们的平台具有三个功能:(1)我们为每个特定股票提供财务新闻。 (2)我们为每种股票提供各种股票因素。 (3)我们评估了更多与财务相关的指标的绩效。这样的设计使我们能够在更现实的环境中开发和评估NLP库存自动交易算法。除了设计评估平台和数据集集合外,我们还通过提出一个系统来自动从各种输入信息中学习良好的功能表示形式来做出技术贡献。我们算法的关键是一种称为语义角色标签池(SRLP)的方法,该方法利用语义角色标签(SRL)来创建每个新闻段的紧凑表示。基于SRLP,我们进一步纳入了其他股票因素以进行最终预测。此外,我们提出了一种基于SRLP的自我监督的学习策略,以增强系统的分布概括性能。通过我们的实验研究,我们表明所提出的方法可以实现更好的性能,并胜过所有基本线的年度回报率,以及CSI300指数和XIN9指数的最大减收率。我们的ASTOCK数据集和代码可在https://github.com/jinanzou/astock上找到。
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Humans inevitably develop a sense of the relationships between objects, some of which are based on their appearance. Some pairs of objects might be seen as being alternatives to each other (such as two pairs of jeans), while others may be seen as being complementary (such as a pair of jeans and a matching shirt). This information guides many of the choices that people make, from buying clothes to their interactions with each other. We seek here to model this human sense of the relationships between objects based on their appearance. Our approach is not based on fine-grained modeling of user annotations but rather on capturing the largest dataset possible and developing a scalable method for uncovering human notions of the visual relationships within. We cast this as a network inference problem defined on graphs of related images, and provide a large-scale dataset for the training and evaluation of the same. The system we develop is capable of recommending which clothes and accessories will go well together (and which will not), amongst a host of other applications.
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The development of social media user stance detection and bot detection methods rely heavily on large-scale and high-quality benchmarks. However, in addition to low annotation quality, existing benchmarks generally have incomplete user relationships, suppressing graph-based account detection research. To address these issues, we propose a Multi-Relational Graph-Based Twitter Account Detection Benchmark (MGTAB), the first standardized graph-based benchmark for account detection. To our knowledge, MGTAB was built based on the largest original data in the field, with over 1.55 million users and 130 million tweets. MGTAB contains 10,199 expert-annotated users and 7 types of relationships, ensuring high-quality annotation and diversified relations. In MGTAB, we extracted the 20 user property features with the greatest information gain and user tweet features as the user features. In addition, we performed a thorough evaluation of MGTAB and other public datasets. Our experiments found that graph-based approaches are generally more effective than feature-based approaches and perform better when introducing multiple relations. By analyzing experiment results, we identify effective approaches for account detection and provide potential future research directions in this field. Our benchmark and standardized evaluation procedures are freely available at: https://github.com/GraphDetec/MGTAB.
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Image Virtual try-on aims at replacing the cloth on a personal image with a garment image (in-shop clothes), which has attracted increasing attention from the multimedia and computer vision communities. Prior methods successfully preserve the character of clothing images, however, occlusion remains a pernicious effect for realistic virtual try-on. In this work, we first present a comprehensive analysis of the occlusions and categorize them into two aspects: i) Inherent-Occlusion: the ghost of the former cloth still exists in the try-on image; ii) Acquired-Occlusion: the target cloth warps to the unreasonable body part. Based on the in-depth analysis, we find that the occlusions can be simulated by a novel semantically-guided mixup module, which can generate semantic-specific occluded images that work together with the try-on images to facilitate training a de-occlusion try-on (DOC-VTON) framework. Specifically, DOC-VTON first conducts a sharpened semantic parsing on the try-on person. Aided by semantics guidance and pose prior, various complexities of texture are selectively blending with human parts in a copy-and-paste manner. Then, the Generative Module (GM) is utilized to take charge of synthesizing the final try-on image and learning to de-occlusion jointly. In comparison to the state-of-the-art methods, DOC-VTON achieves better perceptual quality by reducing occlusion effects.
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Dynamic treatment regimes assign personalized treatments to patients sequentially over time based on their baseline information and time-varying covariates. In mobile health applications, these covariates are typically collected at different frequencies over a long time horizon. In this paper, we propose a deep spectral Q-learning algorithm, which integrates principal component analysis (PCA) with deep Q-learning to handle the mixed frequency data. In theory, we prove that the mean return under the estimated optimal policy converges to that under the optimal one and establish its rate of convergence. The usefulness of our proposal is further illustrated via simulations and an application to a diabetes dataset.
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