准实验研究设计,如回归不连续性和中断的时间序列,允许在缺乏随机对照试验的情况下进行因果推断,以额外的假设。在本文中,我们为使用贝叶斯模型比较和高斯进程回归提供了一种基于不连续性的设计的框架,我们将其称为“贝叶斯非参数不连续性设计”,或短路。 BNDD在这种设计的大多数实现中解决了两个主要的缺点:由于隐式调节对所谓的效果而言,由于依赖过于简单的回归模型,模型误操作。通过适当的高斯过程协方差函数,我们的方法可以检测任何订单的不连续性,以及频谱特征。我们展示了BNDD在模拟中的使用情况,并应用了框架,以确定历史悠久的政治立场的效果,涉嫌历史幻影边境在荷兰对荷兰投票行为的影响,以及昆达里尼瑜伽冥想对心率。
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The number of international benchmarking competitions is steadily increasing in various fields of machine learning (ML) research and practice. So far, however, little is known about the common practice as well as bottlenecks faced by the community in tackling the research questions posed. To shed light on the status quo of algorithm development in the specific field of biomedical imaging analysis, we designed an international survey that was issued to all participants of challenges conducted in conjunction with the IEEE ISBI 2021 and MICCAI 2021 conferences (80 competitions in total). The survey covered participants' expertise and working environments, their chosen strategies, as well as algorithm characteristics. A median of 72% challenge participants took part in the survey. According to our results, knowledge exchange was the primary incentive (70%) for participation, while the reception of prize money played only a minor role (16%). While a median of 80 working hours was spent on method development, a large portion of participants stated that they did not have enough time for method development (32%). 25% perceived the infrastructure to be a bottleneck. Overall, 94% of all solutions were deep learning-based. Of these, 84% were based on standard architectures. 43% of the respondents reported that the data samples (e.g., images) were too large to be processed at once. This was most commonly addressed by patch-based training (69%), downsampling (37%), and solving 3D analysis tasks as a series of 2D tasks. K-fold cross-validation on the training set was performed by only 37% of the participants and only 50% of the participants performed ensembling based on multiple identical models (61%) or heterogeneous models (39%). 48% of the respondents applied postprocessing steps.
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人的大脑能够依次地学习任务,而无需忘记。但是,深度神经网络(DNN)在学习一项任务时遭受灾难性遗忘。我们考虑了一个挑战,考虑了一个课堂学习方案,在该方案中,DNN看到测试数据而不知道该数据启动的任务。在培训期间,持续的捕获和选择(CP&S)在DNN中找到了负责解决给定任务的子网。然后,在推理期间,CP&S选择正确的子网以对该任务进行预测。通过培训DNN的可用神经元连接(以前未经训练)来创建一个新的子网络,从而通过修剪来学习一项新任务,该连接可以包括以前训练的其他子网络(S),因为它没有更新共享的连接,因为它可以属于其他子网络(S)。这使得通过在DNN中创建专门的区域而不会相互冲突的同时仍允许知识转移在其中,可以消除灾难性的遗忘。 CP&S策略采用不同的子网络选择策略实施,揭示了在各种数据集(CIFAR-100,CUB-200,2011年,Imagenet-100和Imagenet-100)上测试的最先进的持续学习方法的卓越性能。特别是,CP&S能够从Imagenet-1000中依次学习10个任务,以确保94%的精度,而遗忘可忽略不计,这是课堂学习学习的首要结果。据作者所知,与最佳替代方法相比,这表示准确性高于20%的改善。
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当前的深神经网络(DNN)被过度参数化,并在推断每个任务期间使用其大多数神经元连接。然而,人的大脑开发了针对不同任务的专门区域,并通过其神经元连接的一小部分进行推断。我们提出了一种迭代修剪策略,引入了一个简单的重要性评分度量度量,该指标可以停用不重要的连接,解决DNN中的过度参数化并调节射击模式。目的是找到仍然能够以可比精度解决给定任务的最小连接,即更简单的子网。我们在MNIST上实现了LENET体系结构的可比性能,并且与CIFAR-10/100和Tiny-ImageNet上的VGG和Resnet架构的最先进算法相比,参数压缩的性能明显更高。我们的方法对于考虑到ADAM和SGD的两个不同优化器也表现良好。该算法并非旨在在考虑当前的硬件和软件实现时最小化失败,尽管与最新技术相比,该算法的性能合理。
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Advances in reinforcement learning (RL) often rely on massive compute resources and remain notoriously sample inefficient. In contrast, the human brain is able to efficiently learn effective control strategies using limited resources. This raises the question whether insights from neuroscience can be used to improve current RL methods. Predictive processing is a popular theoretical framework which maintains that the human brain is actively seeking to minimize surprise. We show that recurrent neural networks which predict their own sensory states can be leveraged to minimise surprise, yielding substantial gains in cumulative reward. Specifically, we present the Predictive Processing Proximal Policy Optimization (P4O) agent; an actor-critic reinforcement learning agent that applies predictive processing to a recurrent variant of the PPO algorithm by integrating a world model in its hidden state. P4O significantly outperforms a baseline recurrent variant of the PPO algorithm on multiple Atari games using a single GPU. It also outperforms other state-of-the-art agents given the same wall-clock time and exceeds human gamer performance on multiple games including Seaquest, which is a particularly challenging environment in the Atari domain. Altogether, our work underscores how insights from the field of neuroscience may support the development of more capable and efficient artificial agents.
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Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be able to perform new tasks based on a few demonstrations or natural language instructions. While these capabilities have led to widespread adoption, most LLMs are developed by resource-rich organizations and are frequently kept from the public. As a step towards democratizing this powerful technology, we present BLOOM, a 176B-parameter open-access language model designed and built thanks to a collaboration of hundreds of researchers. BLOOM is a decoder-only Transformer language model that was trained on the ROOTS corpus, a dataset comprising hundreds of sources in 46 natural and 13 programming languages (59 in total). We find that BLOOM achieves competitive performance on a wide variety of benchmarks, with stronger results after undergoing multitask prompted finetuning. To facilitate future research and applications using LLMs, we publicly release our models and code under the Responsible AI License.
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Missing data is a common concern in health datasets, and its impact on good decision-making processes is well documented. Our study's contribution is a methodology for tackling missing data problems using a combination of synthetic dataset generation, missing data imputation and deep learning methods to resolve missing data challenges. Specifically, we conducted a series of experiments with these objectives; $a)$ generating a realistic synthetic dataset, $b)$ simulating data missingness, $c)$ recovering the missing data, and $d)$ analyzing imputation performance. Our methodology used a gaussian mixture model whose parameters were learned from a cleaned subset of a real demographic and health dataset to generate the synthetic data. We simulated various missingness degrees ranging from $10 \%$, $20 \%$, $30 \%$, and $40\%$ under the missing completely at random scheme MCAR. We used an integrated performance analysis framework involving clustering, classification and direct imputation analysis. Our results show that models trained on synthetic and imputed datasets could make predictions with an accuracy of $83 \%$ and $80 \%$ on $a) $ an unseen real dataset and $b)$ an unseen reserved synthetic test dataset, respectively. Moreover, the models that used the DAE method for imputed yielded the lowest log loss an indication of good performance, even though the accuracy measures were slightly lower. In conclusion, our work demonstrates that using our methodology, one can reverse engineer a solution to resolve missingness on an unseen dataset with missingness. Moreover, though we used a health dataset, our methodology can be utilized in other contexts.
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Accurate representation and localization of relevant objects is important for robots to perform tasks. Building a generic representation that can be used across different environments and tasks is not easy, as the relevant objects vary depending on the environment and the task. Furthermore, another challenge arises in agro-food environments due to their complexity, and high levels of clutter and occlusions. In this paper, we present a method to build generic representations in highly occluded agro-food environments using multi-view perception and 3D multi-object tracking. Our representation is built upon a detection algorithm that generates a partial point cloud for each detected object. The detected objects are then passed to a 3D multi-object tracking algorithm that creates and updates the representation over time. The whole process is performed at a rate of 10 Hz. We evaluated the accuracy of the representation on a real-world agro-food environment, where it was able to successfully represent and locate tomatoes in tomato plants despite a high level of occlusion. We were able to estimate the total count of tomatoes with a maximum error of 5.08% and to track tomatoes with a tracking accuracy up to 71.47%. Additionally, we showed that an evaluation using tracking metrics gives more insight in the errors in localizing and representing the fruits.
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值得怀疑的是,动物具有其四肢的完美逆模型(例如,必须在每个关节上应用什么肌肉收缩才能到达太空中的特定位置)。但是,在机器人控制中,将ARM的最终效应器移至目标位置或沿目标轨迹需要准确的前进和逆模型。在这里,我们证明,通过从交互中学习过渡(正向)模型,我们可以使用它来推动摊销策略的学习。因此,我们重新审视了与深度主动推理框架有关的策略优化,并描述了一个模块化神经网络体系结构,该模块化神经网络体系结构同时从预测错误中学习了系统动力学以及生成合适的连续控制命令以达到所需参考位置的随机策略。我们通过将模型与线性二次调节器的基线进行比较来评估该模型,并以其他步骤来朝着类似人类的运动控制方向进行比较。
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癌症护理中的治疗决策受到随机对照试验(RCT)的治疗效应估计的指导。 RCT估计在某个人群中,一种治疗与另一种治疗的平均效应。但是,治疗可能对人群中的每个患者都不同样有效。了解针对特定患者和肿瘤特征量身定制的治疗的有效性将实现个性化的治疗决策。通过平均RCT中不同患者亚组的结果来获得量身定制的治疗效果,需要大量的患者在所有相关亚组中具有足够的统计能力,以实现所有可能的治疗。美国癌症联合委员会(AJCC)建议研究人员开发结果预测模型(OPMS),以实现个性化治疗决策。 OPM有时称为风险模型或预后模型,使用患者和肿瘤特征来预测患者的结局,例如总体生存。假设这些预测对于使用“只有在OPM预测患者具有高复发风险的情况下开出化学疗法的规则”之类的规则,对治疗决策有用。 AJCC认识到可靠预测的重要性,发布了OPM的清单,以确保设计OPM设计的患者群体的可靠OPM预测准确性。但是,准确的结果预测并不意味着这些预测会产生良好的治疗决策。从这个角度来看,我们表明OPM依靠固定的治疗政策,这意味着被发现可以准确预测验证研究结果的OPM在用于治疗决策的情况下仍会导致患者伤害。然后,我们提供有关如何开发对个性化治疗决策有用的模型以及如何评估模型是否具有决策价值的指导。
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