季节预测$ \ unicode {x2013} $预测温度和降水量为2至6周$ \ unicode {x2013} $，对于有效的水分配，野火管理，干旱和缓解洪水至关重要。最近的国际研究工作提高了操作动力学模型的亚季节能力，但是温度和降水预测技能仍然很差，部分原因是代表动态模型内大气动力学和物理学的顽固错误。为了应对这些错误，我们引入了一种自适应偏置校正（ABC）方法，该方法将最新的动力学预测与使用机器学习的观察结合在一起。当应用于欧洲中等天气预测中心（ECMWF）的领先的亚季节模型时，ABC将温度预测技能提高了60-90％，在美国的连续美国，降水预测技能提高了40-69％基于Shapley队列的实用工作流程，用于解释ABC技能的提高并根据特定的气候条件识别机遇的高技能窗口。

我们基准了一个简单学习模型的亚季节预测工具包，该工具包优于操作实践和最先进的机器学习和深度学习方法。这些模型，由Mouatadid等人引入。 （2022），包括（a）气候++，这是气候学的一种适应性替代品，对于降水而言，准确性9％，比美国运营气候预测系统（CFSV2）高9％，熟练250％； （b）CFSV2 ++，一种学习的CFSV2校正，可将温度和降水精度提高7-8％，技能提高50-275％； （c）持久性++是一种增强的持久性模型，将CFSV2预测与滞后测量相结合，以将温度和降水精度提高6-9％，技能提高40-130％。在整个美国，气候++，CFSV2 ++和持久性++工具包始终优于标准气象基准，最先进的机器和深度学习方法，以及欧洲中等范围的天气预报集合中心。

Classical methods for acoustic scene mapping require the estimation of time difference of arrival (TDOA) between microphones. Unfortunately, TDOA estimation is very sensitive to reverberation and additive noise. We introduce an unsupervised data-driven approach that exploits the natural structure of the data. Our method builds upon local conformal autoencoders (LOCA) - an offline deep learning scheme for learning standardized data coordinates from measurements. Our experimental setup includes a microphone array that measures the transmitted sound source at multiple locations across the acoustic enclosure. We demonstrate that LOCA learns a representation that is isometric to the spatial locations of the microphones. The performance of our method is evaluated using a series of realistic simulations and compared with other dimensionality-reduction schemes. We further assess the influence of reverberation on the results of LOCA and show that it demonstrates considerable robustness.

Software Defect Prediction aims at predicting which software modules are the most probable to contain defects. The idea behind this approach is to save time during the development process by helping find bugs early. Defect Prediction models are based on historical data. Specifically, one can use data collected from past software distributions, or Versions, of the same target application under analysis. Defect Prediction based on past versions is called Cross Version Defect Prediction (CVDP). Traditionally, Static Code Metrics are used to predict defects. In this work, we use the Class Dependency Network (CDN) as another predictor for defects, combined with static code metrics. CDN data contains structural information about the target application being analyzed. Usually, CDN data is analyzed using different handcrafted network measures, like Social Network metrics. Our approach uses network embedding techniques to leverage CDN information without having to build the metrics manually. In order to use the embeddings between versions, we incorporate different embedding alignment techniques. To evaluate our approach, we performed experiments on 24 software release pairs and compared it against several benchmark methods. In these experiments, we analyzed the performance of two different graph embedding techniques, three anchor selection approaches, and two alignment techniques. We also built a meta-model based on two different embeddings and achieved a statistically significant improvement in AUC of 4.7% (p < 0.002) over the baseline method.

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are regularly used for deep ocean applications. Commonly, the autonomous navigation task is carried out by a fusion between two sensors: the inertial navigation system and the Doppler velocity log (DVL). The DVL operates by transmitting four acoustic beams to the sea floor, and once reflected back, the AUV velocity vector can be estimated. However, in real-life scenarios, such as an uneven seabed, sea creatures blocking the DVL's view and, roll/pitch maneuvers, the acoustic beams' reflection is resulting in a scenario known as DVL outage. Consequently, a velocity update is not available to bind the inertial solution drift. To cope with such situations, in this paper, we leverage our BeamsNet framework and propose a Set-Transformer-based BeamsNet (ST-BeamsNet) that utilizes inertial data readings and previous DVL velocity measurements to regress the current AUV velocity in case of a complete DVL outage. The proposed approach was evaluated using data from experiments held in the Mediterranean Sea with the Snapir AUV and was compared to a moving average (MA) estimator. Our ST-BeamsNet estimated the AUV velocity vector with an 8.547% speed error, which is 26% better than the MA approach.

We consider a long-term average profit maximizing admission control problem in an M/M/1 queuing system with a known arrival rate but an unknown service rate. With a fixed reward collected upon service completion and a cost per unit of time enforced on customers waiting in the queue, a dispatcher decides upon arrivals whether to admit the arriving customer or not based on the full history of observations of the queue-length of the system. \cite[Econometrica]{Naor} showed that if all the parameters of the model are known, then it is optimal to use a static threshold policy - admit if the queue-length is less than a predetermined threshold and otherwise not. We propose a learning-based dispatching algorithm and characterize its regret with respect to optimal dispatch policies for the full information model of \cite{Naor}. We show that the algorithm achieves an $O(1)$ regret when all optimal thresholds with full information are non-zero, and achieves an $O(\ln^{3+\epsilon}(N))$ regret in the case that an optimal threshold with full information is $0$ (i.e., an optimal policy is to reject all arrivals), where $N$ is the number of arrivals and $\epsilon>0$.

Contrastive learning has been successfully used for retrieval of semantically aligned sentences, but it often requires large batch sizes or careful engineering to work well. In this paper, we instead propose a generative model for learning multilingual text embeddings which can be used to retrieve or score sentence pairs. Our model operates on parallel data in $N$ languages and, through an approximation we introduce, efficiently encourages source separation in this multilingual setting, separating semantic information that is shared between translations from stylistic or language-specific variation. We show careful large-scale comparisons between contrastive and generation-based approaches for learning multilingual text embeddings, a comparison that has not been done to the best of our knowledge despite the popularity of these approaches. We evaluate this method on a suite of tasks including semantic similarity, bitext mining, and cross-lingual question retrieval -- the last of which we introduce in this paper. Overall, our Variational Multilingual Source-Separation Transformer (VMSST) model outperforms both a strong contrastive and generative baseline on these tasks.

Training of neural networks is a computationally intensive task. The significance of understanding and modeling the training dynamics is growing as increasingly larger networks are being trained. We propose in this work a model based on the correlation of the parameters' dynamics, which dramatically reduces the dimensionality. We refer to our algorithm as \emph{correlation mode decomposition} (CMD). It splits the parameter space into groups of parameters (modes) which behave in a highly correlated manner through the epochs. We achieve a remarkable dimensionality reduction with this approach, where networks like ResNet-18, transformers and GANs, containing millions of parameters, can be modeled well using just a few modes. We observe each typical time profile of a mode is spread throughout the network in all layers. Moreover, our model induces regularization which yields better generalization capacity on the test set. This representation enhances the understanding of the underlying training dynamics and can pave the way for designing better acceleration techniques.

The number of international benchmarking competitions is steadily increasing in various fields of machine learning (ML) research and practice. So far, however, little is known about the common practice as well as bottlenecks faced by the community in tackling the research questions posed. To shed light on the status quo of algorithm development in the specific field of biomedical imaging analysis, we designed an international survey that was issued to all participants of challenges conducted in conjunction with the IEEE ISBI 2021 and MICCAI 2021 conferences (80 competitions in total). The survey covered participants' expertise and working environments, their chosen strategies, as well as algorithm characteristics. A median of 72% challenge participants took part in the survey. According to our results, knowledge exchange was the primary incentive (70%) for participation, while the reception of prize money played only a minor role (16%). While a median of 80 working hours was spent on method development, a large portion of participants stated that they did not have enough time for method development (32%). 25% perceived the infrastructure to be a bottleneck. Overall, 94% of all solutions were deep learning-based. Of these, 84% were based on standard architectures. 43% of the respondents reported that the data samples (e.g., images) were too large to be processed at once. This was most commonly addressed by patch-based training (69%), downsampling (37%), and solving 3D analysis tasks as a series of 2D tasks. K-fold cross-validation on the training set was performed by only 37% of the participants and only 50% of the participants performed ensembling based on multiple identical models (61%) or heterogeneous models (39%). 48% of the respondents applied postprocessing steps.

Fusion-in-Decoder (FiD) is a powerful retrieval-augmented language model that sets the state-of-the-art on many knowledge-intensive NLP tasks. However, FiD suffers from very expensive inference. We show that the majority of inference time results from memory bandwidth constraints in the decoder, and propose two simple changes to the FiD architecture to speed up inference by 7x. The faster decoder inference then allows for a much larger decoder. We denote FiD with the above modifications as FiDO, and show that it strongly improves performance over existing FiD models for a wide range of inference budgets. For example, FiDO-Large-XXL performs faster inference than FiD-Base and achieves better performance than FiD-Large.