对世界各地的急诊部门（ED）服务的需求不断增长，特别是在Covid-19大流行下。风险三环在优先考虑最需要它们的患者的有限医疗资源方面发挥着至关重要的作用。最近，普遍使用电子健康记录（EHR）已经产生了大量的存储数据，伴随着开发可改善紧急护理的预测模型的巨大机会。然而，没有基于大型公共EHR的广泛接受的ED基准，这是新的研究人员可以轻松访问的基准。填补这种差距的成功可以使研究人员更快，方便地开始研究，而无需详细数据预处理，并促进不同研究和方法之间的比较。在本文中，基于医疗信息MART为重症监护IV急诊部门（MIMIC-IV-ED）数据库，我们提出了一款公共ED基准套件，并获得了从2011年到2019年的50万ED访问的基准数据集。三个ed已经介绍了基于预测任务（住院，关键结果和72小时ED Revisit），其中实施了各种流行的方法，从机器学习方法到临床评分系统进行了实施。他们的性能结果评估并进行了比较。我们的代码是开源，因此任何具有访问模仿-IV-ED的人都可以遵循相同的数据处理步骤，构建基准，并重现实验。本研究提供了洞察力，建议，以及未来研究人员的协议，以处理原始数据并快速建立紧急护理模型。

语言模型既展示了定量的改进，又展示了新的定性功能，随着规模的增加。尽管它们具有潜在的变革性影响，但这些新能力的特征却很差。为了为未来的研究提供信息，为破坏性的新模型能力做准备，并改善社会有害的效果，至关重要的是，我们必须了解目前和近乎未来的能力和语言模型的局限性。为了应对这一挑战，我们介绍了超越模仿游戏基准（Big Bench）。 Big Bench目前由204个任务组成，由132家机构的442位作者贡献。任务主题是多样的，从语言学，儿童发展，数学，常识性推理，生物学，物理学，社会偏见，软件开发等等。 Big-Bench专注于被认为超出当前语言模型的功能的任务。我们评估了OpenAI的GPT型号，Google内部密集变压器体系结构和大型基础上的开关稀疏变压器的行为，跨越了数百万到数十亿个参数。此外，一个人类专家评估者团队执行了所有任务，以提供强大的基准。研究结果包括：模型性能和校准都随规模改善，但绝对的术语（以及与评估者的性能相比）；在模型类中的性能非常相似，尽管带有稀疏性。逐渐和预测的任务通常涉及大量知识或记忆成分，而在临界规模上表现出“突破性”行为的任务通常涉及多个步骤或组成部分或脆性指标；社交偏见通常会随着含糊不清的环境而随着规模而增加，但这可以通过提示来改善。

Modelling and forecasting real-life human behaviour using online social media is an active endeavour of interest in politics, government, academia, and industry. Since its creation in 2006, Twitter has been proposed as a potential laboratory that could be used to gauge and predict social behaviour. During the last decade, the user base of Twitter has been growing and becoming more representative of the general population. Here we analyse this user base in the context of the 2021 Mexican Legislative Election. To do so, we use a dataset of 15 million election-related tweets in the six months preceding election day. We explore different election models that assign political preference to either the ruling parties or the opposition. We find that models using data with geographical attributes determine the results of the election with better precision and accuracy than conventional polling methods. These results demonstrate that analysis of public online data can outperform conventional polling methods, and that political analysis and general forecasting would likely benefit from incorporating such data in the immediate future. Moreover, the same Twitter dataset with geographical attributes is positively correlated with results from official census data on population and internet usage in Mexico. These findings suggest that we have reached a period in time when online activity, appropriately curated, can provide an accurate representation of offline behaviour.

Feature selection helps reduce data acquisition costs in ML, but the standard approach is to train models with static feature subsets. Here, we consider the dynamic feature selection (DFS) problem where a model sequentially queries features based on the presently available information. DFS is often addressed with reinforcement learning (RL), but we explore a simpler approach of greedily selecting features based on their conditional mutual information. This method is theoretically appealing but requires oracle access to the data distribution, so we develop a learning approach based on amortized optimization. The proposed method is shown to recover the greedy policy when trained to optimality and outperforms numerous existing feature selection methods in our experiments, thus validating it as a simple but powerful approach for this problem.

The application of deep learning algorithms to financial data is difficult due to heavy non-stationarities which can lead to over-fitted models that underperform under regime changes. Using the Numerai tournament data set as a motivating example, we propose a machine learning pipeline for trading market-neutral stock portfolios based on tabular data which is robust under changes in market conditions. We evaluate various machine-learning models, including Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) and Neural Networks with and without simple feature engineering, as the building blocks for the pipeline. We find that GBDT models with dropout display high performance, robustness and generalisability with relatively low complexity and reduced computational cost. We then show that online learning techniques can be used in post-prediction processing to enhance the results. In particular, dynamic feature neutralisation, an efficient procedure that requires no retraining of models and can be applied post-prediction to any machine learning model, improves robustness by reducing drawdown in volatile market conditions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the creation of model ensembles through dynamic model selection based on recent model performance leads to improved performance over baseline by improving the Sharpe and Calmar ratios. We also evaluate the robustness of our pipeline across different data splits and random seeds with good reproducibility of results.

Remote sensing of the Earth's surface water is critical in a wide range of environmental studies, from evaluating the societal impacts of seasonal droughts and floods to the large-scale implications of climate change. Consequently, a large literature exists on the classification of water from satellite imagery. Yet, previous methods have been limited by 1) the spatial resolution of public satellite imagery, 2) classification schemes that operate at the pixel level, and 3) the need for multiple spectral bands. We advance the state-of-the-art by 1) using commercial imagery with panchromatic and multispectral resolutions of 30 cm and 1.2 m, respectively, 2) developing multiple fully convolutional neural networks (FCN) that can learn the morphological features of water bodies in addition to their spectral properties, and 3) FCN that can classify water even from panchromatic imagery. This study focuses on rivers in the Arctic, using images from the Quickbird, WorldView, and GeoEye satellites. Because no training data are available at such high resolutions, we construct those manually. First, we use the RGB, and NIR bands of the 8-band multispectral sensors. Those trained models all achieve excellent precision and recall over 90% on validation data, aided by on-the-fly preprocessing of the training data specific to satellite imagery. In a novel approach, we then use results from the multispectral model to generate training data for FCN that only require panchromatic imagery, of which considerably more is available. Despite the smaller feature space, these models still achieve a precision and recall of over 85%. We provide our open-source codes and trained model parameters to the remote sensing community, which paves the way to a wide range of environmental hydrology applications at vastly superior accuracies and 2 orders of magnitude higher spatial resolution than previously possible.

Anomaly detection on time series data is increasingly common across various industrial domains that monitor metrics in order to prevent potential accidents and economic losses. However, a scarcity of labeled data and ambiguous definitions of anomalies can complicate these efforts. Recent unsupervised machine learning methods have made remarkable progress in tackling this problem using either single-timestamp predictions or time series reconstructions. While traditionally considered separately, these methods are not mutually exclusive and can offer complementary perspectives on anomaly detection. This paper first highlights the successes and limitations of prediction-based and reconstruction-based methods with visualized time series signals and anomaly scores. We then propose AER (Auto-encoder with Regression), a joint model that combines a vanilla auto-encoder and an LSTM regressor to incorporate the successes and address the limitations of each method. Our model can produce bi-directional predictions while simultaneously reconstructing the original time series by optimizing a joint objective function. Furthermore, we propose several ways of combining the prediction and reconstruction errors through a series of ablation studies. Finally, we compare the performance of the AER architecture against two prediction-based methods and three reconstruction-based methods on 12 well-known univariate time series datasets from NASA, Yahoo, Numenta, and UCR. The results show that AER has the highest averaged F1 score across all datasets (a 23.5% improvement compared to ARIMA) while retaining a runtime similar to its vanilla auto-encoder and regressor components. Our model is available in Orion, an open-source benchmarking tool for time series anomaly detection.

Deep neural networks are incredibly vulnerable to crafted, human-imperceptible adversarial perturbations. Although adversarial training (AT) has proven to be an effective defense approach, we find that the AT-trained models heavily rely on the input low-frequency content for judgment, accounting for the low standard accuracy. To close the large gap between the standard and robust accuracies during AT, we investigate the frequency difference between clean and adversarial inputs, and propose a frequency regularization (FR) to align the output difference in the spectral domain. Besides, we find Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), by smoothing the kernels over epochs, further improves the robustness. Among various defense schemes, our method achieves the strongest robustness against attacks by PGD-20, C\&W and Autoattack, on a WideResNet trained on CIFAR-10 without any extra data.

Light guide plates are essential optical components widely used in a diverse range of applications ranging from medical lighting fixtures to back-lit TV displays. In this work, we introduce a fully-integrated, high-throughput, high-performance deep learning-driven workflow for light guide plate surface visual quality inspection (VQI) tailored for real-world manufacturing environments. To enable automated VQI on the edge computing within the fully-integrated VQI system, a highly compact deep anti-aliased attention condenser neural network (which we name LightDefectNet) tailored specifically for light guide plate surface defect detection in resource-constrained scenarios was created via machine-driven design exploration with computational and "best-practices" constraints as well as L_1 paired classification discrepancy loss. Experiments show that LightDetectNet achieves a detection accuracy of ~98.2% on the LGPSDD benchmark while having just 770K parameters (~33X and ~6.9X lower than ResNet-50 and EfficientNet-B0, respectively) and ~93M FLOPs (~88X and ~8.4X lower than ResNet-50 and EfficientNet-B0, respectively) and ~8.8X faster inference speed than EfficientNet-B0 on an embedded ARM processor. As such, the proposed deep learning-driven workflow, integrated with the aforementioned LightDefectNet neural network, is highly suited for high-throughput, high-performance light plate surface VQI within real-world manufacturing environments.

The state-of-the-art language model-based automatic metrics, e.g. BARTScore, benefiting from large-scale contextualized pre-training, have been successfully used in a wide range of natural language generation (NLG) tasks, including machine translation, text summarization, and data-to-text. Recent studies show that considering both major errors (e.g. mistranslated tokens) and minor errors (e.g. imperfections in fluency) can produce high-quality human judgments. This inspires us to approach the final goal of the evaluation metrics (human-like evaluations) by automatic error analysis. To this end, we augment BARTScore by incorporating the human-like error analysis strategies, namely BARTScore++, where the final score consists of both the evaluations of major errors and minor errors. Experimental results show that BARTScore++ can consistently improve the performance of vanilla BARTScore and outperform existing top-scoring metrics in 20 out of 25 test settings. We hope our technique can also be extended to other pre-trained model-based metrics. We will release our code and scripts to facilitate the community.