The proliferation of smartphones has accelerated mobility studies by largely increasing the type and volume of mobility data available. One such source of mobility data is from GPS technology, which is becoming increasingly common and helps the research community understand mobility patterns of people. However, there lacks a standardized framework for studying the different mobility patterns created by the non-Work, non-Home locations of Working and Nonworking users on Workdays and Offdays using machine learning methods. We propose a new mobility metric, Daily Characteristic Distance, and use it to generate features for each user together with Origin-Destination matrix features. We then use those features with an unsupervised machine learning method, $k$-means clustering, and obtain three clusters of users for each type of day (Workday and Offday). Finally, we propose two new metrics for the analysis of the clustering results, namely User Commonality and Average Frequency. By using the proposed metrics, interesting user behaviors can be discerned and it helps us to better understand the mobility patterns of the users.
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COVID-19的传播表明,在不同的城市和社区之间,传播风险模式不是同质的,各种异质特征会影响传播轨迹。因此,对于预测性大流行监测,至关重要的是,在城市和社区中探索潜在的异质特征,以区分其特定的大流行扩散轨迹。为此,这项研究创建了一个网络嵌入模型,捕获跨县的访问网络以及异质特征,以根据其大流行传播轨迹来发现美国县的集群。我们从3月3日至2020年6月29日(初始波浪)收集了2,787个县的位置智能特征。其次,我们构建了一个人类访问网络,该网络将县特征作为节点属性和县之间的访问作为网络边缘。我们的归因网络嵌入方法整合了跨县访问网络的类型学特征以及异质性特征。我们对属性网络嵌入进行了聚类分析,以揭示与四个县群相对应的差异风险轨迹的四种原型。随后,我们确定了四个功能是原型之间独特的传输风险模式的重要特征。归因的网络嵌入方法和发现识别并解释了整个县的非殖民性大流行风险轨迹进行预测性大流行监测。这项研究还为大流行分析的基于数据驱动和深度学习的方法有助于补充大流行病政策分析的标准流行病学模型。
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Trip destination prediction is an area of increasing importance in many applications such as trip planning, autonomous driving and electric vehicles. Even though this problem could be naturally addressed in an online learning paradigm where data is arriving in a sequential fashion, the majority of research has rather considered the offline setting. In this paper, we present a unified framework for trip destination prediction in an online setting, which is suitable for both online training and online prediction. For this purpose, we develop two clustering algorithms and integrate them within two online prediction models for this problem. We investigate the different configurations of clustering algorithms and prediction models on a real-world dataset. We demonstrate that both the clustering and the entire framework yield consistent results compared to the offline setting. Finally, we propose a novel regret metric for evaluating the entire online framework in comparison to its offline counterpart. This metric makes it possible to relate the source of erroneous predictions to either the clustering or the prediction model. Using this metric, we show that the proposed methods converge to a probability distribution resembling the true underlying distribution with a lower regret than all of the baselines.
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Efficient energy consumption is crucial for achieving sustainable energy goals in the era of climate change and grid modernization. Thus, it is vital to understand how energy is consumed at finer resolutions such as household in order to plan demand-response events or analyze the impacts of weather, electricity prices, electric vehicles, solar, and occupancy schedules on energy consumption. However, availability and access to detailed energy-use data, which would enable detailed studies, has been rare. In this paper, we release a unique, large-scale, synthetic, residential energy-use dataset for the residential sector across the contiguous United States covering millions of households. The data comprise of hourly energy use profiles for synthetic households, disaggregated into Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL) and appliance use. The underlying framework is constructed using a bottom-up approach. Diverse open-source surveys and first principles models are used for end-use modeling. Extensive validation of the synthetic dataset has been conducted through comparisons with reported energy-use data. We present a detailed, open, high-resolution, residential energy-use dataset for the United States.
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“轨迹”是指由地理空间中的移动物体产生的迹线,通常由一系列按时间顺序排列的点表示,其中每个点由地理空间坐标集和时间戳组成。位置感应和无线通信技术的快速进步使我们能够收集和存储大量的轨迹数据。因此,许多研究人员使用轨迹数据来分析各种移动物体的移动性。在本文中,我们专注于“城市车辆轨迹”,这是指城市交通网络中车辆的轨迹,我们专注于“城市车辆轨迹分析”。城市车辆轨迹分析提供了前所未有的机会,可以了解城市交通网络中的车辆运动模式,包括以用户为中心的旅行经验和系统范围的时空模式。城市车辆轨迹数据的时空特征在结构上相互关联,因此,许多先前的研究人员使用了各种方法来理解这种结构。特别是,由于其强大的函数近似和特征表示能力,深度学习模型是由于许多研究人员的注意。因此,本文的目的是开发基于深度学习的城市车辆轨迹分析模型,以更好地了解城市交通网络的移动模式。特别是,本文重点介绍了两项研究主题,具有很高的必要性,重要性和适用性:下一个位置预测,以及合成轨迹生成。在这项研究中,我们向城市车辆轨迹分析提供了各种新型模型,使用深度学习。
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在本文中,我们使用机器学习,概率和基于重力的方法的组合来提出一种用于为更大的墨尔本地区创建合成群体的算法。我们将这些技术与三个主要创新的混合模型相结合:1。分配活动模式时,我们为每个代理商生成各个活动链,对其队列量身定制; 2.选择目的地时,我们的目标是在旅行长度和目的地的基于活动的景点之间取得平衡; 3.我们考虑到代理人剩余的旅行数量,以确保他们不选择不合理的目的地以退回家庭。我们的方法是完全打开和可复制的,只需要公开的数据来生成与常用代理的建模软件兼容的合成代理商,例如Matsim。在各种人口尺寸的距离分布,模式选择和目的地选择方面,发现合成群是准确的。
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在清晨预测交通动态时,传统交通预测方法的有效性通常非常有限。原因是在清晨通勤期间交通可能会彻底分解,这个分解的时间和持续时间大幅度从日常生活中变化。清晨的交通预测是通知午餐的交通管理至关重要,但他们通常会提前预测,特别是在午夜预测。在本文中,我们建议将Twitter消息作为探测方法,了解在前一天晚上/午夜的人们工作和休息模式的影响到下一天的早晨交通。该模型在匹兹堡的高速公路网络上进行了测试,作为实验。由此产生的关系令人惊讶地简单且强大。我们发现,一般来说,早些时候的人休息如推文所示,即第二天早上就越拥挤的道路就越多。之前的大事发生了大事,由更高或更低的Tweet情绪表示,比正常,通常意味着在第二天早上的旅行需求较低。此外,人们在前一天晚上和清晨的鸣叫活动与早晨高峰时段的拥堵有统计学相关。我们利用这种关系来构建一个预测框架,预测早晨的通勤充血使用5时或早晨午夜提取的人的推特型材。匹兹堡研究支持我们的框架可以精确预测早晨拥塞,特别是对于具有大型日常充血变异的道路瓶颈上游的一些道路段。我们的方法在没有Twitter消息功能的情况下大大差异,可以从提供管理洞察力的推文配置文件中学习有意义的需求表示。
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规划自行车共享站的布局是一个复杂的过程,特别是在刚刚实施自行车共享系统的城市。城市规划者通常必须根据公开可用的数据并私下提供来自管理的数据,然后使用现场流行的位置分配模型。较小城市的许多城市可能难以招聘专家进行此类规划。本文提出了一种新的解决方案来简化和促进通过使用空间嵌入方法来实现这种规划的过程。仅基于来自OpenStreetMap的公开数据,以及来自欧洲34个城市的站布局,已经开发了一种使用优步H3离散全球电网系统将城市分成微区域的方法,并指示其值得放置站的区域在不同城市使用转移学习的现有系统。工作的结果是在规划驻地布局的决策中支持规划者的机制,以选择参考城市。
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城市化及其问题需要对城市动态,尤其是现代城市复杂而多样化的生活方式的深入和全面的了解。数字化的数据可以准确捕获复杂的人类活动,但缺乏人口统计数据的解释性。在本文中,我们研究了美国11个都会区的120万人到110万个地方的出行探访模式的隐私增强数据集,以检测美国最大的美国城市中的潜在行动行为和生活方式。尽管出行访问的复杂性很大,但我们发现生活方式可以自动分解为12种潜在的可解释的活动行为,人们如何将购物,饮食,工作或利用空闲时间结合起来。我们没有描述具有单一生活方式的人,而是发现城市居民的行为是这些行为的混合。那些被检测到的潜在活动行为同样存在于城市之间,无法通过主要人口特征来完全解释。最后,我们发现这些潜在行为与在控制人口特征之后,即使在控制人口特征之后,这些潜在行为也与经验丰富的收入隔离,运输或健康行为有关。我们的结果表明,与活动行为相辅相成,以了解城市动态的重要性。
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The node-place model has been widely used to classify and evaluate transit stations, which sheds light on individual travel behaviors and supports urban planning through effectively integrating land use and transportation development. This article adapts this model to investigate whether and how node, place, and mobility would be associated with the transmission risks and presences of the local COVID-19 cases in a city. Similar studies on the model and its relevance to COVID-19, according to our knowledge, have not been undertaken before. Moreover, the unique metric drawn from detailed visit history of the infected, i.e., the COVID-19 footprints, is proposed and exploited. This study then empirically uses the adapted model to examine the station-level factors affecting the local COVID-19 footprints. The model accounts for traditional measures of the node and place as well as actual human mobility patterns associated with the node and place. It finds that stations with high node, place, and human mobility indices normally have more COVID-19 footprints in proximity. A multivariate regression is fitted to see whether and to what degree different indices and indicators can predict the COVID-19 footprints. The results indicate that many of the place, node, and human mobility indicators significantly impact the concentration of COVID-19 footprints. These are useful for policy-makers to predict and monitor hotspots for COVID-19 and other pandemics transmission.
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空间数据在应对与城市相关的任务中的作用近年来一直在增长。要在机器学习模型中使用它们,通常需要将它们转换为向量表示,这导致了空间数据表示学习领域的开发。还有一种越来越多的各种空间数据类型,提出了一种表示学习方法。迄今为止,公共交通时间表迄今未被用于一个城市地区的学习陈述的任务。在这项工作中,开发了一种方法来将公共交通可用性信息嵌入到矢量空间中。要对其申请进行实验,从48个城市收集公共交通时间表。使用H3空间索引方法,它们被分成微区域。还提出了一种方法来识别具有类似公共交通报价特征的地区。在其基础上,定义了该地区的公共交通报价的多层次类型。本文表明,所提出的表示方法可以识别城市之间具有相似公共交通特性的微区域,并且可用于评估城市中可用的公共交通的质量。
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In 2021 300 mm of rain, nearly half the average annual rainfall, fell near Catania (Sicily island, Italy). Such events took place in just a few hours, with dramatic consequences on the environmental, social, economic, and health systems of the region. This is the reason why, detecting extreme rainfall events is a crucial prerequisite for planning actions able to reverse possibly intensified dramatic future scenarios. In this paper, the Affinity Propagation algorithm, a clustering algorithm grounded on machine learning, was applied, to the best of our knowledge, for the first time, to identify excess rain events in Sicily. This was possible by using a high-frequency, large dataset we collected, ranging from 2009 to 2021 which we named RSE (the Rainfall Sicily Extreme dataset). Weather indicators were then been employed to validate the results, thus confirming the presence of recent anomalous rainfall events in eastern Sicily. We believe that easy-to-use and multi-modal data science techniques, such as the one proposed in this study, could give rise to significant improvements in policy-making for successfully contrasting climate changes.
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Accurate activity location prediction is a crucial component of many mobility applications and is particularly required to develop personalized, sustainable transportation systems. Despite the widespread adoption of deep learning models, next location prediction models lack a comprehensive discussion and integration of mobility-related spatio-temporal contexts. Here, we utilize a multi-head self-attentional (MHSA) neural network that learns location transition patterns from historical location visits, their visit time and activity duration, as well as their surrounding land use functions, to infer an individual's next location. Specifically, we adopt point-of-interest data and latent Dirichlet allocation for representing locations' land use contexts at multiple spatial scales, generate embedding vectors of the spatio-temporal features, and learn to predict the next location with an MHSA network. Through experiments on two large-scale GNSS tracking datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms other state-of-the-art prediction models, and reveal the contribution of various spatio-temporal contexts to the model's performance. Moreover, we find that the model trained on population data achieves higher prediction performance with fewer parameters than individual-level models due to learning from collective movement patterns. We also reveal mobility conducted in the recent past and one week before has the largest influence on the current prediction, showing that learning from a subset of the historical mobility is sufficient to obtain an accurate location prediction result. We believe that the proposed model is vital for context-aware mobility prediction. The gained insights will help to understand location prediction models and promote their implementation for mobility applications.
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社会经济特征正在影响水需求的时间和空间变异 - 水分配系统建模中的最大不确定性源。可以利用改善对这些影响的知识来减少需求的不确定性。本文旨在通过应用新的聚类算法将智能水表数据链接到社会经济用户特征,该算法使用每日需求模式的动态时间翘曲度量。该方法在模拟和测量的单户家庭数据集上进行了测试。我们表明,与常用的聚类方法,两者相比,该算法与普遍使用的聚类方法相比,在找到正确的群集数量以及正确分配模式时,可以更好地执行更好。此外,该方法可用于识别需求模式集群内的异常值。此外,本研究调查了在单簇内普遍存在的社会经济特征(例如就业状况,居民人数),因此可以与群集的重心的形状相关联。将来,建议的方法与随机需求模型结合使用,可用于填补液压模型中的数据间隙。
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追踪和处理当代时代的对象的要求逐渐增加,因为许多应用程序迅速需要精确的移动对象位置。地图匹配方法被用作预处理技术,该技术与相应道路上的移动对象点匹配。但是,大多数GPS轨迹数据集都包含静置的不规则性,这使得匹配算法不匹配轨迹与无关紧要的街道。因此,确定GPS轨迹数据集中的停留点区域会导致更好的准确匹配和更快的方法。在这项工作中,我们将停留点集中在带有DBSCAN的轨迹数据集中,并消除冗余数据,以通过降低处理时间来提高MAP匹配算法的效率。与基于模糊逻辑的地图匹配算法相比,我们认为我们提出的方法的性能和精确性。幸运的是,我们的方法可产生27.39%的数据尺寸减少和8.9%的处理时间缩短,其准确结果与以前的基于模糊的MAP匹配方法相同。
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Deep learning approaches for spatio-temporal prediction problems such as crowd-flow prediction assumes data to be of fixed and regular shaped tensor and face challenges of handling irregular, sparse data tensor. This poses limitations in use-case scenarios such as predicting visit counts of individuals' for a given spatial area at a particular temporal resolution using raster/image format representation of the geographical region, since the movement patterns of an individual can be largely restricted and localized to a certain part of the raster. Additionally, current deep-learning approaches for solving such problem doesn't account for the geographical awareness of a region while modelling the spatio-temporal movement patterns of an individual. To address these limitations, there is a need to develop a novel strategy and modeling approach that can handle both sparse, irregular data while incorporating geo-awareness in the model. In this paper, we make use of quadtree as the data structure for representing the image and introduce a novel geo-aware enabled deep learning layer, GA-ConvLSTM that performs the convolution operation based on a novel geo-aware module based on quadtree data structure for incorporating spatial dependencies while maintaining the recurrent mechanism for accounting for temporal dependencies. We present this approach in the context of the problem of predicting spatial behaviors of an individual (e.g., frequent visits to specific locations) through deep-learning based predictive model, GADST-Predict. Experimental results on two GPS based trace data shows that the proposed method is effective in handling frequency visits over different use-cases with considerable high accuracy.
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交通预测模型依赖需要感测,处理和存储的数据。这需要部署和维护交通传感基础设施,往往导致不适合的货币成本。缺乏感测的位置可以与合成数据模拟相辅相成,进一步降低交通监测所需的经济投资。根据类似道路的数据分布,其中最常见的数据生成方法之一包括产生实际的流量模式。检测具有相似流量的道路的过程是这些系统的关键点。但是,在不收集目标位置收集数据,没有用于该相似性的搜索可以使用流量度量。我们提出了一种通过检查道路段的拓扑特征来发现具有可用流量数据的方法的方法。相关的拓扑功能被提取为数值表示(嵌入式)以比较不同的位置,并最终根据其嵌入之间的相似性找到最相似的道路。检查该新颖选择系统的性能,并与更简单的流量估计方法进行比较。找到类似的数据源后,使用生成方法来合成流量配置文件。根据感知道路的交通行为的相似性,可以使用一条路的数据来馈送生成方法。在合成样品的精度方面分析了几种代理方法。最重要的是,这项工作打算促进进一步的研究努力提高综合交通样本的质量,从而降低对传感基础设施的需求。
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音景研究的生态有效性通常取决于代表正在研究的知觉空间的声景选择。例如,声景愉快的研究可能会调查来自“宜人”到“烦人”的音景地点。音景的选择通常是研究人员主导的,但是参与者主导的过程可以降低选择偏见并提高结果可靠性。因此,我们提出了一种强大的参与者指导的方法,以查明具有任意感知属性的特征音景。我们通过识别跨越从ISO 12913-2的Soundscape感知的ISO 12913-2 Circumplex模型的新加坡音景来验证我们的方法。从记忆和经验来看,有67名参与者首先选择了与新加坡每个主要计划区域中每个感知象限相对应的位置。然后,我们在选定的位置进行了加权K-均值聚类,每个位置的权重从每个参与者在每个位置花费的频率和持续时间得出。因此,权重是参与者信心的代理。因此,总共将62个位置确定为具有特征性音景的合适位置,可利用ISO 12913-2感知象限进行进一步研究。声音景观的视听记录和声学表征将在以后的研究中进行。
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自行车共享系统(BSSS)作为创新的运输服务。鉴于这些系统致力于通过促进环境和经济可持续性以及改善人口的生活质量,这些系统致力于消除当前全球担忧的许多担忧,确保BSS的正常运作至关重要。良好的用户过渡模式知识是对服务的质量和可操作性的决定性贡献。类似的和不平衡的用户的过渡模式导致这些系统遭受自行车不平衡,从长远来看,导致客户损失很大。自行车重新平衡的策略变得重要,以解决这个问题,为此,自行车交通预测至关重要,因为它允许更有效地运行并提前做出反应。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种基于图形神经网络嵌入的自行车TRIPS预测因子,考虑到站分组,气象条件,地理距离和旅行模式。我们在纽约市BSS(CITIBIKE)数据中评估了我们的方法,并将其与四个基线进行比较,包括非聚类方法。为了解决我们的问题的特殊性,我们开发了自适应转换约束聚类加(ADATC +)算法,消除了以前的工作的缺点。我们的实验证据证据细胞化(88%的准确性,而无需聚类83%),哪种聚类技术最适合这个问题。对于ADATC +,链路预测任务的准确性总是较高,而不是基于基准群集方法,而当网站相同,虽然在升级网络时不会降低性能,但在训练有素的模型中不匹配。
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从移动设备收集的位置数据代表个人和社会水平的移动性行为。这些数据具有从运输计划到疫情建模的重要应用。但是,必须克服最佳服务的问题:数据通常代表有限的人口样本和数据危害隐私的数据。为了解决这些问题,我们展示并评估用于使用在实际位置数据上培训的深频复制神经网络(RNN)来生成合成移动数据的系统。该系统将群体分发作为输入,为相应的合成群生成移动性跟踪。相关的生成方法尚未解决在较长时间内捕获个人移动行为中的模式和变异性的挑战,同时还平衡了具有隐私的现实数据的产生。我们的系统利用RNNS的能力生成复杂和新序列的能力,同时保留训练数据的模式。此外,该模型引入了用于校准各个级别的合成和实际数据之间的变化的随机性。这是捕获人类移动性的可变性,并保护用户隐私。基于位置的服务(LBS)来自22,700多种移动设备的数据用于实用程序和隐私度量的实验评估。我们示出了生成的移动数据保留了实际数据的特征,同时从个人级别的实际数据变化,并且在此变化量匹配真实数据内的变化。
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