作为自然现象的地震,历史上不断造成伤害和人类生活的损失。地震预测是任何社会计划的重要方面,可以增加公共准备,并在很大程度上减少损坏。然而,由于地震的随机特征以及实现了地震预测的有效和可靠模型的挑战,迄今为止努力一直不足,需要新的方法来解决这个问题。本文意识到​​这些问题,提出了一种基于注意机制(AM),卷积神经网络(CNN)和双向长短期存储器(BILSTM)模型的新型预测方法,其可以预测数量和最大幅度中国大陆各地区的地震为基于该地区的地震目录。该模型利用LSTM和CNN具有注意机制,以更好地关注有效的地震特性并产生更准确的预测。首先,将零阶保持技术应用于地震数据上的预处理,使得模型的输入数据更适当。其次,为了有效地使用空间信息并减少输入数据的维度,CNN用于捕获地震数据之间的空间依赖性。第三,使用Bi-LSTM层来捕获时间依赖性。第四,引入了AM层以突出其重要的特征来实现更好的预测性能。结果表明,该方法具有比其他预测方法更好的性能和概括能力。
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As ride-hailing services become increasingly popular, being able to accurately predict demand for such services can help operators efficiently allocate drivers to customers, and reduce idle time, improve congestion, and enhance the passenger experience. This paper proposes UberNet, a deep learning Convolutional Neural Network for short-term prediction of demand for ride-hailing services. UberNet empploys a multivariate framework that utilises a number of temporal and spatial features that have been found in the literature to explain demand for ride-hailing services. The proposed model includes two sub-networks that aim to encode the source series of various features and decode the predicting series, respectively. To assess the performance and effectiveness of UberNet, we use 9 months of Uber pickup data in 2014 and 28 spatial and temporal features from New York City. By comparing the performance of UberNet with several other approaches, we show that the prediction quality of the model is highly competitive. Further, Ubernet's prediction performance is better when using economic, social and built environment features. This suggests that Ubernet is more naturally suited to including complex motivators in making real-time passenger demand predictions for ride-hailing services.
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预测基金绩效对投资者和基金经理都是有益的,但这是一项艰巨的任务。在本文中,我们测试了深度学习模型是否比传统统计技术更准确地预测基金绩效。基金绩效通常通过Sharpe比率进行评估,该比例代表了风险调整的绩效,以确保基金之间有意义的可比性。我们根据每月收益率数据序列数据计算了年度夏普比率,该数据的时间序列数据为600多个投资于美国上市大型股票的开放式共同基金投资。我们发现,经过现代贝叶斯优化训练的长期短期记忆(LSTM)和封闭式复发单元(GRUS)深度学习方法比传统统计量相比,预测基金的Sharpe比率更高。结合了LSTM和GRU的预测的合奏方法,可以实现所有模型的最佳性能。有证据表明,深度学习和结合能提供有希望的解决方案,以应对基金绩效预测的挑战。
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Wind power forecasting helps with the planning for the power systems by contributing to having a higher level of certainty in decision-making. Due to the randomness inherent to meteorological events (e.g., wind speeds), making highly accurate long-term predictions for wind power can be extremely difficult. One approach to remedy this challenge is to utilize weather information from multiple points across a geographical grid to obtain a holistic view of the wind patterns, along with temporal information from the previous power outputs of the wind farms. Our proposed CNN-RNN architecture combines convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to extract spatial and temporal information from multi-dimensional input data to make day-ahead predictions. In this regard, our method incorporates an ultra-wide learning view, combining data from multiple numerical weather prediction models, wind farms, and geographical locations. Additionally, we experiment with global forecasting approaches to understand the impact of training the same model over the datasets obtained from multiple different wind farms, and we employ a method where spatial information extracted from convolutional layers is passed to a tree ensemble (e.g., Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM)) instead of fully connected layers. The results show that our proposed CNN-RNN architecture outperforms other models such as LGBM, Extra Tree regressor and linear regression when trained globally, but fails to replicate such performance when trained individually on each farm. We also observe that passing the spatial information from CNN to LGBM improves its performance, providing further evidence of CNN's spatial feature extraction capabilities.
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Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation plays a critical role in Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). Traditional machine health maintenance systems are often costly, requiring sufficient prior expertise, and are difficult to fit into highly complex and changing industrial scenarios. With the widespread deployment of sensors on industrial equipment, building the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) to interconnect these devices has become an inexorable trend in the development of the digital factory. Using the device's real-time operational data collected by IIoT to get the estimated RUL through the RUL prediction algorithm, the PHM system can develop proactive maintenance measures for the device, thus, reducing maintenance costs and decreasing failure times during operation. This paper carries out research into the remaining useful life prediction model for multi-sensor devices in the IIoT scenario. We investigated the mainstream RUL prediction models and summarized the basic steps of RUL prediction modeling in this scenario. On this basis, a data-driven approach for RUL estimation is proposed in this paper. It employs a Multi-Head Attention Mechanism to fuse the multi-dimensional time-series data output from multiple sensors, in which the attention on features is used to capture the interactions between features and attention on sequences is used to learn the weights of time steps. Then, the Long Short-Term Memory Network is applied to learn the features of time series. We evaluate the proposed model on two benchmark datasets (C-MAPSS and PHM08), and the results demonstrate that it outperforms the state-of-art models. Moreover, through the interpretability of the multi-head attention mechanism, the proposed model can provide a preliminary explanation of engine degradation. Therefore, this approach is promising for predictive maintenance in IIoT scenarios.
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REED继电器是功能测试的基本组成部分,与电子产品的成功质量检查密切相关。为了为REED继电器提供准确的剩余使用寿命(RUL)估计,根据以下三个考虑,提出了具有降解模式聚类的混合深度学习网络。首先,对于REED继电器,观察到多种降解行为,因此提供了基于动态的$ K $ -MEANS聚类,以区分彼此的退化模式。其次,尽管适当的功能选择具有重要意义,但很少有研究可以指导选择。提出的方法建议进行操作规则,以实施轻松实施。第三,提出了用于剩余使用寿命估计的神经网络(RULNET),以解决卷积神经网络(CNN)在捕获顺序数据的时间信息中的弱点,该信息在卷积操作的高级特征表示后结合了时间相关能力。通过这种方式,lulnet的三种变体由健康指标,具有自组织地图的功能或具有曲线拟合的功能构建。最终,将提出的混合模型与典型的基线模型(包括CNN和长期记忆网络(LSTM))进行了比较,该模型通过具有两个不同不同降级方式的实用REED继电器数据集进行了比较。两种降解案例的结果表明,所提出的方法在索引均方根误差方面优于CNN和LSTM。
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The stock market prediction has been a traditional yet complex problem researched within diverse research areas and application domains due to its non-linear, highly volatile and complex nature. Existing surveys on stock market prediction often focus on traditional machine learning methods instead of deep learning methods. Deep learning has dominated many domains, gained much success and popularity in recent years in stock market prediction. This motivates us to provide a structured and comprehensive overview of the research on stock market prediction focusing on deep learning techniques. We present four elaborated subtasks of stock market prediction and propose a novel taxonomy to summarize the state-of-the-art models based on deep neural networks from 2011 to 2022. In addition, we also provide detailed statistics on the datasets and evaluation metrics commonly used in the stock market. Finally, we highlight some open issues and point out several future directions by sharing some new perspectives on stock market prediction.
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手写数字识别(HDR)是光学特征识别(OCR)领域中最具挑战性的任务之一。不管语言如何,HDR都存在一些固有的挑战,这主要是由于个人跨个人的写作风格的变化,编写媒介和环境的变化,无法在反复编写任何数字等时保持相同的笔触。除此之外,特定语言数字的结构复杂性可能会导致HDR的模棱两可。多年来,研究人员开发了许多离线和在线HDR管道,其中不同的图像处理技术与传统的机器学习(ML)基于基于的和/或基于深度学习(DL)的体系结构相结合。尽管文献中存在有关HDR的广泛审查研究的证据,例如:英语,阿拉伯语,印度,法尔西,中文等,但几乎没有对孟加拉人HDR(BHDR)的调查,这缺乏对孟加拉语HDR(BHDR)的研究,而这些调查缺乏对孟加拉语HDR(BHDR)的研究。挑战,基础识别过程以及可能的未来方向。在本文中,已经分析了孟加拉语手写数字的特征和固有的歧义,以及二十年来最先进的数据集的全面见解和离线BHDR的方法。此外,还详细讨论了一些涉及BHDR的现实应用特定研究。本文还将作为对离线BHDR背后科学感兴趣的研究人员的汇编,煽动了对相关研究的新途径的探索,这可能会进一步导致在不同应用领域对孟加拉语手写数字进行更好的离线认识。
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交通速度预测是许多有价值应用程序的关键,由于其各种影响因素,它也是一项具有挑战性的任务。最近的工作试图通过各种混合模型获得更多信息,从而提高了预测准确性。但是,这些方法的空间信息采集方案存在两级分化问题。建模很简单,但包含很少的空间信息,或者建模是完整的,但缺乏灵活性。为了基于确保灵活性引入更多空间信息,本文提出了IRNET(可转让的交叉点重建网络)。首先,本文将相交重建为与相同结构的虚拟交集,从而简化了道路网络的拓扑结构。然后,将空间信息细分为交叉信息和交通流向的序列信息,并通过各种模型获得时空特征。第三,一种自我发项机制用于融合时空特征以进行预测。在与基线的比较实验中,不仅预测效应,而且转移性能具有明显的优势。
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Seizure type identification is essential for the treatment and management of epileptic patients. However, it is a difficult process known to be time consuming and labor intensive. Automated diagnosis systems, with the advancement of machine learning algorithms, have the potential to accelerate the classification process, alert patients, and support physicians in making quick and accurate decisions. In this paper, we present a novel multi-path seizure-type classification deep learning network (MP-SeizNet), consisting of a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM) with an attention mechanism. The objective of this study was to classify specific types of seizures, including complex partial, simple partial, absence, tonic, and tonic-clonic seizures, using only electroencephalogram (EEG) data. The EEG data is fed to our proposed model in two different representations. The CNN was fed with wavelet-based features extracted from the EEG signals, while the Bi-LSTM was fed with raw EEG signals to let our MP-SeizNet jointly learns from different representations of seizure data for more accurate information learning. The proposed MP-SeizNet was evaluated using the largest available EEG epilepsy database, the Temple University Hospital EEG Seizure Corpus, TUSZ v1.5.2. We evaluated our proposed model across different patient data using three-fold cross-validation and across seizure data using five-fold cross-validation, achieving F1 scores of 87.6% and 98.1%, respectively.
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Time series anomaly detection has applications in a wide range of research fields and applications, including manufacturing and healthcare. The presence of anomalies can indicate novel or unexpected events, such as production faults, system defects, or heart fluttering, and is therefore of particular interest. The large size and complex patterns of time series have led researchers to develop specialised deep learning models for detecting anomalous patterns. This survey focuses on providing structured and comprehensive state-of-the-art time series anomaly detection models through the use of deep learning. It providing a taxonomy based on the factors that divide anomaly detection models into different categories. Aside from describing the basic anomaly detection technique for each category, the advantages and limitations are also discussed. Furthermore, this study includes examples of deep anomaly detection in time series across various application domains in recent years. It finally summarises open issues in research and challenges faced while adopting deep anomaly detection models.
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With the evolution of power systems as it is becoming more intelligent and interactive system while increasing in flexibility with a larger penetration of renewable energy sources, demand prediction on a short-term resolution will inevitably become more and more crucial in designing and managing the future grid, especially when it comes to an individual household level. Projecting the demand for electricity for a single energy user, as opposed to the aggregated power consumption of residential load on a wide scale, is difficult because of a considerable number of volatile and uncertain factors. This paper proposes a customized GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture to address this challenging problem. LSTM and GRU are comparatively newer and among the most well-adopted deep learning approaches. The electricity consumption datasets were obtained from individual household smart meters. The comparison shows that the LSTM model performs better for home-level forecasting than alternative prediction techniques-GRU in this case. To compare the NN-based models with contrast to the conventional statistical technique-based model, ARIMA based model was also developed and benchmarked with LSTM and GRU model outcomes in this study to show the performance of the proposed model on the collected time series data.
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人口级社会事件,如民事骚乱和犯罪,往往对我们的日常生活产生重大影响。预测此类事件对于决策和资源分配非常重要。由于缺乏关于事件发生的真实原因和潜在机制的知识,事件预测传统上具有挑战性。近年来,由于两个主要原因,研究事件预测研究取得了重大进展:(1)机器学习和深度学习算法的开发和(2)社交媒体,新闻来源,博客,经济等公共数据的可访问性指标和其他元数据源。软件/硬件技术中的数据的爆炸性增长导致了社会事件研究中的深度学习技巧的应用。本文致力于提供社会事件预测的深层学习技术的系统和全面概述。我们专注于两个社会事件的域名:\ Texit {Civil unrest}和\ texit {犯罪}。我们首先介绍事件预测问题如何作为机器学习预测任务制定。然后,我们总结了这些问题的数据资源,传统方法和最近的深度学习模型的发展。最后,我们讨论了社会事件预测中的挑战,并提出了一些有希望的未来研究方向。
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A well-performing prediction model is vital for a recommendation system suggesting actions for energy-efficient consumer behavior. However, reliable and accurate predictions depend on informative features and a suitable model design to perform well and robustly across different households and appliances. Moreover, customers' unjustifiably high expectations of accurate predictions may discourage them from using the system in the long term. In this paper, we design a three-step forecasting framework to assess predictability, engineering features, and deep learning architectures to forecast 24 hourly load values. First, our predictability analysis provides a tool for expectation management to cushion customers' anticipations. Second, we design several new weather-, time- and appliance-related parameters for the modeling procedure and test their contribution to the model's prediction performance. Third, we examine six deep learning techniques and compare them to tree- and support vector regression benchmarks. We develop a robust and accurate model for the appliance-level load prediction based on four datasets from four different regions (US, UK, Austria, and Canada) with an equal set of appliances. The empirical results show that cyclical encoding of time features and weather indicators alongside a long-short term memory (LSTM) model offer the optimal performance.
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研究了自闭症数据集,以确定自闭症和健康组之间的差异。为此,分析了这两组的静止状态功能磁共振成像(RS-FMRI)数据,并创建了大脑区域之间的连接网络。开发了几个分类框架,以区分组之间的连接模式。比较了统计推断和精度的最佳模型,并分析了精度和模型解释性之间的权衡。最后,据报道,分类精度措施证明了我们框架的性能。我们的最佳模型可以以71%的精度将自闭症和健康的患者分类为多站点I数据。
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Semiconductor lasers, one of the key components for optical communication systems, have been rapidly evolving to meet the requirements of next generation optical networks with respect to high speed, low power consumption, small form factor etc. However, these demands have brought severe challenges to the semiconductor laser reliability. Therefore, a great deal of attention has been devoted to improving it and thereby ensuring reliable transmission. In this paper, a predictive maintenance framework using machine learning techniques is proposed for real-time heath monitoring and prognosis of semiconductor laser and thus enhancing its reliability. The proposed approach is composed of three stages: i) real-time performance degradation prediction, ii) degradation detection, and iii) remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. First of all, an attention based gated recurrent unit (GRU) model is adopted for real-time prediction of performance degradation. Then, a convolutional autoencoder is used to detect the degradation or abnormal behavior of a laser, given the predicted degradation performance values. Once an abnormal state is detected, a RUL prediction model based on attention-based deep learning is utilized. Afterwards, the estimated RUL is input for decision making and maintenance planning. The proposed framework is validated using experimental data derived from accelerated aging tests conducted for semiconductor tunable lasers. The proposed approach achieves a very good degradation performance prediction capability with a small root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.01, a good anomaly detection accuracy of 94.24% and a better RUL estimation capability compared to the existing ML-based laser RUL prediction models.
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最近,已经努力将信号阶段和时机(SPAT)消息标准化。这些消息包含所有信号交叉方法的信号相时机。因此,这些信息可用于有效的运动计划,从而导致更多均匀的交通流量和均匀的速度轮廓。尽管努力为半活化的信号控制系统提供了可靠的预测,但预测完全驱动控制的信号相时仍具有挑战性。本文提出了使用聚合的流量信号和循环检测器数据的时间序列预测框架。我们利用最先进的机器学习模型来预测未来信号阶段的持续时间。线性回归(LR),随机森林(RF)和长期内存(LSTM)神经网络的性能是针对天真基线模型进行评估的。结果基于瑞士苏黎世的全面信号控制系统的经验数据集表明,机器学习模型的表现优于常规预测方法。此外,基于树木的决策模型(例如RF)的表现最佳,其准确性满足实用应用要求。
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In this paper, we propose a new short-term load forecasting (STLF) model based on contextually enhanced hybrid and hierarchical architecture combining exponential smoothing (ES) and a recurrent neural network (RNN). The model is composed of two simultaneously trained tracks: the context track and the main track. The context track introduces additional information to the main track. It is extracted from representative series and dynamically modulated to adjust to the individual series forecasted by the main track. The RNN architecture consists of multiple recurrent layers stacked with hierarchical dilations and equipped with recently proposed attentive dilated recurrent cells. These cells enable the model to capture short-term, long-term and seasonal dependencies across time series as well as to weight dynamically the input information. The model produces both point forecasts and predictive intervals. The experimental part of the work performed on 35 forecasting problems shows that the proposed model outperforms in terms of accuracy its predecessor as well as standard statistical models and state-of-the-art machine learning models.
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近年来,随着传感器和智能设备的广泛传播,物联网(IoT)系统的数据生成速度已大大增加。在物联网系统中,必须经常处理,转换和分析大量数据,以实现各种物联网服务和功能。机器学习(ML)方法已显示出其物联网数据分析的能力。但是,将ML模型应用于物联网数据分析任务仍然面临许多困难和挑战,特别是有效的模型选择,设计/调整和更新,这给经验丰富的数据科学家带来了巨大的需求。此外,物联网数据的动态性质可能引入概念漂移问题,从而导致模型性能降解。为了减少人类的努力,自动化机器学习(AUTOML)已成为一个流行的领域,旨在自动选择,构建,调整和更新机器学习模型,以在指定任务上实现最佳性能。在本文中,我们对Automl区域中模型选择,调整和更新过程中的现有方法进行了审查,以识别和总结将ML算法应用于IoT数据分析的每个步骤的最佳解决方案。为了证明我们的发现并帮助工业用户和研究人员更好地实施汽车方法,在这项工作中提出了将汽车应用于IoT异常检测问题的案例研究。最后,我们讨论并分类了该领域的挑战和研究方向。
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在本文中,我们提出了一种深度学习技术,用于数据驱动的流体介质中波传播的预测。该技术依赖于基于注意力的卷积复发自动编码器网络(AB-CRAN)。为了构建波传播数据的低维表示,我们采用了基于转化的卷积自动编码器。具有基于注意力的长期短期记忆细胞的AB-CRAN体系结构构成了我们的深度神经网络模型,用于游行低维特征的时间。我们评估了针对标准复发性神经网络的拟议的AB-Cran框架,用于波传播的低维学习。为了证明AB-Cran模型的有效性,我们考虑了三个基准问题,即一维线性对流,非线性粘性汉堡方程和二维圣人浅水系统。我们的新型AB-CRAN结构使用基准问题的空间 - 时空数据集,可以准确捕获波幅度,并在长期范围内保留溶液的波特性。与具有长期短期记忆细胞的标准复发性神经网络相比,基于注意力的序列到序列网络增加了预测的时间莫。 Denoising自动编码器进一步减少了预测的平方平方误差,并提高了参数空间中的概括能力。
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