We introduce a machine-learning (ML)-based weather simulator--called "GraphCast"--which outperforms the most accurate deterministic operational medium-range weather forecasting system in the world, as well as all previous ML baselines. GraphCast is an autoregressive model, based on graph neural networks and a novel high-resolution multi-scale mesh representation, which we trained on historical weather data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ERA5 reanalysis archive. It can make 10-day forecasts, at 6-hour time intervals, of five surface variables and six atmospheric variables, each at 37 vertical pressure levels, on a 0.25-degree latitude-longitude grid, which corresponds to roughly 25 x 25 kilometer resolution at the equator. Our results show GraphCast is more accurate than ECMWF's deterministic operational forecasting system, HRES, on 90.0% of the 2760 variable and lead time combinations we evaluated. GraphCast also outperforms the most accurate previous ML-based weather forecasting model on 99.2% of the 252 targets it reported. GraphCast can generate a 10-day forecast (35 gigabytes of data) in under 60 seconds on Cloud TPU v4 hardware. Unlike traditional forecasting methods, ML-based forecasting scales well with data: by training on bigger, higher quality, and more recent data, the skill of the forecasts can improve. Together these results represent a key step forward in complementing and improving weather modeling with ML, open new opportunities for fast, accurate forecasting, and help realize the promise of ML-based simulation in the physical sciences.

扩展语言模型已被证明可以预测提高各种下游任务的性能和样本效率。相反，本文讨论了一种不可预测的现象，我们将其称为大语言模型的新兴能力。如果在较小的模型中不存在，而是在较大的模型中存在，那么我们认为它可以突然出现。因此，不仅可以通过推断较小模型的性能来预测紧急能力。这种出现的存在意味着额外的扩展可以进一步扩大语言模型的能力范围。

Inspired by progress in large-scale language modeling, we apply a similar approach towards building a single generalist agent beyond the realm of text outputs. The agent, which we refer to as Gato, works as a multi-modal, multi-task, multi-embodiment generalist policy. The same network with the same weights can play Atari, caption images, chat, stack blocks with a real robot arm and much more, deciding based on its context whether to output text, joint torques, button presses, or other tokens. In this report we describe the model and the data, and document the current capabilities of Gato.

General perception systems such as Perceivers can process arbitrary modalities in any combination and are able to handle up to a few hundred thousand inputs. They achieve this generality by using exclusively global attention operations. This however hinders them from scaling up to the inputs sizes required to process raw high-resolution images or video. In this paper, we show that some degree of locality can be introduced back into these models, greatly improving their efficiency while preserving their generality. To scale them further, we introduce a self-supervised approach that enables learning dense low-dimensional positional embeddings for very large signals. We call the resulting model a Hierarchical Perceiver (HiP). In sum our contributions are: 1) scaling Perceiver-type models to raw high-resolution images and audio+video, 2) showing the feasibility of learning 1M+ positional embeddings from scratch using masked auto-encoding, 3) demonstrating competitive performance on raw data from ImageNet, AudioSet, PASCAL VOC, ModelNet40 and Kinetics datasets with the same exact, unchanged model and without specialized preprocessing or any tokenization.

现实世界中的数据是高维的：即使在压缩后，书籍，图像或音乐表演也很容易包含数十万个元素。但是，最常用的自回归模型，变压器非常昂贵，以缩放捕获这种远程结构所需的输入和层数。我们开发了感知者AR，这是一种自回归的模态 - 不合骨架构，它使用交叉注意力将远程输入映射到少数潜在的潜在，同时还可以维护端到端的因果关系掩盖。感知器AR可以直接进行十万个令牌，从而实现了实用的长篇小写密度估计，而无需手工制作的稀疏模式或记忆机制。当对图像或音乐进行培训时，感知器AR会生成具有清晰长期连贯性和结构的输出。我们的架构还获得了长期基准测试的最新可能性，包括64 x 64个Imagenet图像和PG-19书籍。

我们通过与与前面令牌的局部相似度，通过调节从大语料库检索的文档块来增强自动回归语言模型。尽管使用25美元\时分，我们的检索增强型变压器（RetroCro）的检索增强型变压器（RetroCr）对GPT-3和侏罗纪-1获得了可比性的性能。微调后，复古表演转换为下游知识密集型任务，如问题应答。复古结合了冷冻BERT猎犬，一种可微分的编码器和块状的横向机制，以预测基于数量级的令牌，而不是训练期间通常消耗的数量。我们通常从头开始训练复古，还可以快速改造预先接受的变压器，通过检索，仍然达到良好的性能。我们的工作通过以前所未有的规模开辟了通过显式内存改进语言模型的新途径。

Biological systems perceive the world by simultaneously processing high-dimensional inputs from modalities as diverse as vision, audition, touch, proprioception, etc. The perception models used in deep learning on the other hand are designed for individual modalities, often relying on domainspecific assumptions such as the local grid structures exploited by virtually all existing vision models. These priors introduce helpful inductive biases, but also lock models to individual modalities. In this paper we introduce the Perceiver -a model that builds upon Transformers and hence makes few architectural assumptions about the relationship between its inputs, but that also scales to hundreds of thousands of inputs, like ConvNets. The model leverages an asymmetric attention mechanism to iteratively distill inputs into a tight latent bottleneck, allowing it to scale to handle very large inputs. We show that this architecture is competitive with or outperforms strong, specialized models on classification tasks across various modalities: images, point clouds, audio, video, and video+audio. The Perceiver obtains performance comparable to ResNet-50 and ViT on ImageNet without 2D convolutions by directly attending to 50,000 pixels. It is also competitive in all modalities in AudioSet.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) sequentially process data by updating their state with each new data point, and have long been the de facto choice for sequence modeling tasks. However, their inherently sequential computation makes them slow to train. Feed-forward and convolutional architectures have recently been shown to achieve superior results on some sequence modeling tasks such as machine translation, with the added advantage that they concurrently process all inputs in the sequence, leading to easy parallelization and faster training times. Despite these successes, however, popular feed-forward sequence models like the Transformer fail to generalize in many simple tasks that recurrent models handle with ease, e.g. copying strings or even simple logical inference when the string or formula lengths exceed those observed at training time. We propose the Universal Transformer (UT), a parallel-in-time self-attentive recurrent sequence model which can be cast as a generalization of the Transformer model and which addresses these issues. UTs combine the parallelizability and global receptive field of feed-forward sequence models like the Transformer with the recurrent inductive bias of RNNs. We also add a dynamic per-position halting mechanism and find that it improves accuracy on several tasks. In contrast to the standard Transformer, under certain assumptions UTs can be shown to be Turing-complete. Our experiments show that UTs outperform standard Transformers on a wide range of algorithmic and language understanding tasks, including the challenging LAMBADA language modeling task where UTs achieve a new state of the art, and machine translation where UTs achieve a 0.9 BLEU improvement over Transformers on the WMT14 En-De dataset. * Equal contribution, alphabetically by last name. † Work performed while at Google Brain.

While supervised learning has enabled great progress in many applications, unsupervised learning has not seen such widespread adoption, and remains an important and challenging endeavor for artificial intelligence. In this work, we propose a universal unsupervised learning approach to extract useful representations from high-dimensional data, which we call Contrastive Predictive Coding. The key insight of our model is to learn such representations by predicting the future in latent space by using powerful autoregressive models. We use a probabilistic contrastive loss which induces the latent space to capture information that is maximally useful to predict future samples. It also makes the model tractable by using negative sampling. While most prior work has focused on evaluating representations for a particular modality, we demonstrate that our approach is able to learn useful representations achieving strong performance on four distinct domains: speech, images, text and reinforcement learning in 3D environments.

Learning useful representations without supervision remains a key challenge in machine learning. In this paper, we propose a simple yet powerful generative model that learns such discrete representations. Our model, the Vector Quantised-Variational AutoEncoder (VQ-VAE), differs from VAEs in two key ways: the encoder network outputs discrete, rather than continuous, codes; and the prior is learnt rather than static. In order to learn a discrete latent representation, we incorporate ideas from vector quantisation (VQ). Using the VQ method allows the model to circumvent issues of "posterior collapse" --where the latents are ignored when they are paired with a powerful autoregressive decoder --typically observed in the VAE framework. Pairing these representations with an autoregressive prior, the model can generate high quality images, videos, and speech as well as doing high quality speaker conversion and unsupervised learning of phonemes, providing further evidence of the utility of the learnt representations.