We investigate ensemble methods for prediction in an online setting. Unlike all the literature in ensembling, for the first time, we introduce a new approach using a meta learner that effectively combines the base model predictions via using a superset of the features that is the union of the base models' feature vectors instead of the predictions themselves. Here, our model does not use the predictions of the base models as inputs to a machine learning algorithm, but choose the best possible combination at each time step based on the state of the problem. We explore three different constraint spaces for the ensembling of the base learners that linearly combines the base predictions, which are convex combinations where the components of the ensembling vector are all nonnegative and sum up to 1; affine combinations where the weight vector components are required to sum up to 1; and the unconstrained combinations where the components are free to take any real value. The constraints are both theoretically analyzed under known statistics and integrated into the learning procedure of the meta learner as a part of the optimization in an automated manner. To show the practical efficiency of the proposed method, we employ a gradient-boosted decision tree and a multi-layer perceptron separately as the meta learners. Our framework is generic so that one can use other machine learning architectures as the ensembler as long as they allow for a custom differentiable loss for minimization. We demonstrate the learning behavior of our algorithm on synthetic data and the significant performance improvements over the conventional methods over various real life datasets, extensively used in the well-known data competitions. Furthermore, we openly share the source code of the proposed method to facilitate further research and comparison.

我们在在线环境中研究了非线性预测，并引入了混合模型，该模型通过端到端体系结构有效地减轻了对手工设计的功能的需求和传统非线性预测/回归方法的手动模型选择问题。特别是，我们使用递归结构从顺序信号中提取特征，同时保留状态信息，即历史记录和增强决策树以产生最终输出。该连接是以端到端方式的，我们使用随机梯度下降共同优化整个体系结构，我们还为此提供了向后的通过更新方程。特别是，我们采用了一个经常性的神经网络（LSTM）来从顺序数据中提取自适应特征，并提取梯度增强机械（Soft GBDT），以进行有效的监督回归。我们的框架是通用的，因此可以使用其他深度学习体系结构进行特征提取（例如RNN和GRU）和机器学习算法进行决策，只要它们是可区分的。我们证明了算法对合成数据的学习行为以及各种现实生活数据集对常规方法的显着性能改进。此外，我们公开分享提出的方法的源代码，以促进进一步的研究。

Teaching machines to read natural language documents remains an elusive challenge. Machine reading systems can be tested on their ability to answer questions posed on the contents of documents that they have seen, but until now large scale training and test datasets have been missing for this type of evaluation. In this work we define a new methodology that resolves this bottleneck and provides large scale supervised reading comprehension data. This allows us to develop a class of attention based deep neural networks that learn to read real documents and answer complex questions with minimal prior knowledge of language structure.

Wind power forecasting helps with the planning for the power systems by contributing to having a higher level of certainty in decision-making. Due to the randomness inherent to meteorological events (e.g., wind speeds), making highly accurate long-term predictions for wind power can be extremely difficult. One approach to remedy this challenge is to utilize weather information from multiple points across a geographical grid to obtain a holistic view of the wind patterns, along with temporal information from the previous power outputs of the wind farms. Our proposed CNN-RNN architecture combines convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to extract spatial and temporal information from multi-dimensional input data to make day-ahead predictions. In this regard, our method incorporates an ultra-wide learning view, combining data from multiple numerical weather prediction models, wind farms, and geographical locations. Additionally, we experiment with global forecasting approaches to understand the impact of training the same model over the datasets obtained from multiple different wind farms, and we employ a method where spatial information extracted from convolutional layers is passed to a tree ensemble (e.g., Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM)) instead of fully connected layers. The results show that our proposed CNN-RNN architecture outperforms other models such as LGBM, Extra Tree regressor and linear regression when trained globally, but fails to replicate such performance when trained individually on each farm. We also observe that passing the spatial information from CNN to LGBM improves its performance, providing further evidence of CNN's spatial feature extraction capabilities.

Recent advances in deep learning have enabled us to address the curse of dimensionality (COD) by solving problems in higher dimensions. A subset of such approaches of addressing the COD has led us to solving high-dimensional PDEs. This has resulted in opening doors to solving a variety of real-world problems ranging from mathematical finance to stochastic control for industrial applications. Although feasible, these deep learning methods are still constrained by training time and memory. Tackling these shortcomings, Tensor Neural Networks (TNN) demonstrate that they can provide significant parameter savings while attaining the same accuracy as compared to the classical Dense Neural Network (DNN). In addition, we also show how TNN can be trained faster than DNN for the same accuracy. Besides TNN, we also introduce Tensor Network Initializer (TNN Init), a weight initialization scheme that leads to faster convergence with smaller variance for an equivalent parameter count as compared to a DNN. We benchmark TNN and TNN Init by applying them to solve the parabolic PDE associated with the Heston model, which is widely used in financial pricing theory.

In this manuscript, we present a novel method for estimating the stochastic stability characteristics of metastable legged systems using the unscented transformation. Prior methods for stability analysis in such systems often required high-dimensional state space discretization and a broad set of initial conditions, resulting in significant computational complexity. Our approach aims to alleviate this issue by reducing the dimensionality of the system and utilizing the unscented transformation to estimate the output distribution. This technique allows us to account for multiple sources of uncertainty and high-dimensional system dynamics, while leveraging prior knowledge of noise statistics to inform the selection of initial conditions for experiments. As a result, our method enables the efficient assessment of controller performance and analysis of parametric dependencies with fewer experiments. To demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed method, we apply it to the analysis of a one-dimensional hopper and an underactuated bipedal walking simulation with a hybrid zero dynamics controller.

Multimodal models are becoming increasingly effective, in part due to unified components, such as the Transformer architecture. However, multimodal models still often consist of many task- and modality-specific pieces and training procedures. For example, CLIP (Radford et al., 2021) trains independent text and image towers via a contrastive loss. We explore an additional unification: the use of a pure pixel-based model to perform image, text, and multimodal tasks. Our model is trained with contrastive loss alone, so we call it CLIP-Pixels Only (CLIPPO). CLIPPO uses a single encoder that processes both regular images and text rendered as images. CLIPPO performs image-based tasks such as retrieval and zero-shot image classification almost as well as CLIP, with half the number of parameters and no text-specific tower or embedding. When trained jointly via image-text contrastive learning and next-sentence contrastive learning, CLIPPO can perform well on natural language understanding tasks, without any word-level loss (language modelling or masked language modelling), outperforming pixel-based prior work. Surprisingly, CLIPPO can obtain good accuracy in visual question answering, simply by rendering the question and image together. Finally, we exploit the fact that CLIPPO does not require a tokenizer to show that it can achieve strong performance on multilingual multimodal retrieval without

Deep learning can extract rich data representations if provided sufficient quantities of labeled training data. For many tasks however, annotating data has significant costs in terms of time and money, owing to the high standards of subject matter expertise required, for example in medical and geophysical image interpretation tasks. Active Learning can identify the most informative training examples for the interpreter to train, leading to higher efficiency. We propose an Active learning method based on jointly learning representations for supervised and unsupervised tasks. The learned manifold structure is later utilized to identify informative training samples most dissimilar from the learned manifold from the error profiles on the unsupervised task. We verify the efficiency of the proposed method on a seismic facies segmentation dataset from the Netherlands F3 block survey, significantly outperforming contemporary methods to achieve the highest mean Intersection-Over-Union value of 0.773.

Hydrocarbon prospect risking is a critical application in geophysics predicting well outcomes from a variety of data including geological, geophysical, and other information modalities. Traditional routines require interpreters to go through a long process to arrive at the probability of success of specific outcomes. AI has the capability to automate the process but its adoption has been limited thus far owing to a lack of transparency in the way complicated, black box models generate decisions. We demonstrate how LIME -- a model-agnostic explanation technique -- can be used to inject trust in model decisions by uncovering the model's reasoning process for individual predictions. It generates these explanations by fitting interpretable models in the local neighborhood of specific datapoints being queried. On a dataset of well outcomes and corresponding geophysical attribute data, we show how LIME can induce trust in model's decisions by revealing the decision-making process to be aligned to domain knowledge. Further, it has the potential to debug mispredictions made due to anomalous patterns in the data or faulty training datasets.

A fundamental characteristic common to both human vision and natural language is their compositional nature. Yet, despite the performance gains contributed by large vision and language pretraining, we find that - across 6 architectures trained with 4 algorithms on massive datasets - they exhibit little compositionality. To arrive at this conclusion, we introduce a new compositionality evaluation benchmark CREPE which measures two important aspects of compositionality identified by cognitive science literature: systematicity and productivity. To measure systematicity, CREPE consists of three test datasets. The three test sets are designed to test models trained on three of the popular training datasets: CC-12M, YFCC-15M, and LAION-400M. They contain 385K, 385K, and 373K image-text pairs and 237K, 210K, and 178K hard negative captions. To test productivity, CREPE contains 17K image-text pairs with nine different complexities plus 246K hard negative captions with atomic, swapping, and negation foils. The datasets are generated by repurposing the Visual Genome scene graphs and region descriptions and applying handcrafted templates and GPT-3. For systematicity, we find that model performance decreases consistently when novel compositions dominate the retrieval set, with Recall@1 dropping by up to 8%. For productivity, models' retrieval success decays as complexity increases, frequently nearing random chance at high complexity. These results hold regardless of model and training dataset size.