预测道路用户的未来行为是自主驾驶中最具挑战性和最重要的问题之一。应用深度学习对此问题需要以丰富的感知信号和地图信息的形式融合异构世界状态，并在可能的期货上推断出高度多模态分布。在本文中，我们呈现MultiPath ++，这是一个未来的预测模型，实现了在流行的基准上实现最先进的性能。 MultiPath ++通过重新访问许多设计选择来改善多径架构。第一关键设计差异是偏离基于图像的基于输入世界状态的偏离，有利于异构场景元素的稀疏编码：多径++消耗紧凑且有效的折线，直接描述道路特征和原始代理状态信息（例如，位置，速度，加速）。我们提出了一种背景感知这些元素的融合，并开发可重用的多上下文选通融合组件。其次，我们重新考虑了预定义，静态锚点的选择，并开发了一种学习模型端到端的潜在锚嵌入的方法。最后，我们在其他ML域中探索合奏和输出聚合技术 - 常见的常见域 - 并为我们的概率多模式输出表示找到有效的变体。我们对这些设计选择进行了广泛的消融，并表明我们所提出的模型在协会运动预测竞争和Waymo开放数据集运动预测挑战上实现了最先进的性能。

The number of international benchmarking competitions is steadily increasing in various fields of machine learning (ML) research and practice. So far, however, little is known about the common practice as well as bottlenecks faced by the community in tackling the research questions posed. To shed light on the status quo of algorithm development in the specific field of biomedical imaging analysis, we designed an international survey that was issued to all participants of challenges conducted in conjunction with the IEEE ISBI 2021 and MICCAI 2021 conferences (80 competitions in total). The survey covered participants' expertise and working environments, their chosen strategies, as well as algorithm characteristics. A median of 72% challenge participants took part in the survey. According to our results, knowledge exchange was the primary incentive (70%) for participation, while the reception of prize money played only a minor role (16%). While a median of 80 working hours was spent on method development, a large portion of participants stated that they did not have enough time for method development (32%). 25% perceived the infrastructure to be a bottleneck. Overall, 94% of all solutions were deep learning-based. Of these, 84% were based on standard architectures. 43% of the respondents reported that the data samples (e.g., images) were too large to be processed at once. This was most commonly addressed by patch-based training (69%), downsampling (37%), and solving 3D analysis tasks as a series of 2D tasks. K-fold cross-validation on the training set was performed by only 37% of the participants and only 50% of the participants performed ensembling based on multiple identical models (61%) or heterogeneous models (39%). 48% of the respondents applied postprocessing steps.

语言模型既展示了定量的改进，又展示了新的定性功能，随着规模的增加。尽管它们具有潜在的变革性影响，但这些新能力的特征却很差。为了为未来的研究提供信息，为破坏性的新模型能力做准备，并改善社会有害的效果，至关重要的是，我们必须了解目前和近乎未来的能力和语言模型的局限性。为了应对这一挑战，我们介绍了超越模仿游戏基准（Big Bench）。 Big Bench目前由204个任务组成，由132家机构的442位作者贡献。任务主题是多样的，从语言学，儿童发展，数学，常识性推理，生物学，物理学，社会偏见，软件开发等等。 Big-Bench专注于被认为超出当前语言模型的功能的任务。我们评估了OpenAI的GPT型号，Google内部密集变压器体系结构和大型基础上的开关稀疏变压器的行为，跨越了数百万到数十亿个参数。此外，一个人类专家评估者团队执行了所有任务，以提供强大的基准。研究结果包括：模型性能和校准都随规模改善，但绝对的术语（以及与评估者的性能相比）；在模型类中的性能非常相似，尽管带有稀疏性。逐渐和预测的任务通常涉及大量知识或记忆成分，而在临界规模上表现出“突破性”行为的任务通常涉及多个步骤或组成部分或脆性指标；社交偏见通常会随着含糊不清的环境而随着规模而增加，但这可以通过提示来改善。

许多文献表明，基于及时的学习是使用大型预训练的语言模型的有效方法。最近的作品还展示了通过插入适当的提示来指导聊天机器人输出的可能性。基于梯度的方法通常用于扰动提示。但是，某些语言模型甚至无法为公众提供。在这项工作中，我们首先探讨了提示和加强学习（RL）与转向模型的生成的组合，而无需访问任何模型的参数。其次，为了减少培训工作并增强对看不见的任务的普遍性，我们应用多任务学习以使模型学会更好地对新任务进行推广。实验结果表明，我们提出的方法可以成功控制几个最新的（SOTA）对话模型，而无需访问其参数。此外，该模型证明了与基线模型更少的步骤快速适应看不见的任务的强大能力。

这项研究提出了一个多模式的机器学习模型，以预测ICD-10诊断代码。我们开发了单独的机器学习模型，可以处理来自不同模式的数据，包括非结构化文本，半结构化文本和结构化表格数据。我们进一步采用了合奏方法来集成所有模式特异性模型以生成ICD-10代码。还提取了主要证据，以使我们的预测更具说服力和可解释。我们使用医学信息集市进行重症监护III（模拟-III）数据集来验证我们的方法。对于ICD代码预测，我们的表现最佳模型（Micro-F1 = 0.7633，Micro-AUC = 0.9541）显着超过其他基线模型，包括TF-IDF（Micro-F1 = 0.6721，Micro-AUC = 0.7879）和Text-CNN模型（Micro-F1 = 0.6569，Micro-AUC = 0.9235）。为了解释性，我们的方法在文本数据上实现了JACCARD相似性系数（JSC）为0.1806，在表格数据上分别获得了0.3105，训练有素的医生分别达到0.2780和0.5002。

We propose a distributionally robust return-risk model for Markov decision processes (MDPs) under risk and reward ambiguity. The proposed model optimizes the weighted average of mean and percentile performances, and it covers the distributionally robust MDPs and the distributionally robust chance-constrained MDPs (both under reward ambiguity) as special cases. By considering that the unknown reward distribution lies in a Wasserstein ambiguity set, we derive the tractable reformulation for our model. In particular, we show that that the return-risk model can also account for risk from uncertain transition kernel when one only seeks deterministic policies, and that a distributionally robust MDP under the percentile criterion can be reformulated as its nominal counterpart at an adjusted risk level. A scalable first-order algorithm is designed to solve large-scale problems, and we demonstrate the advantages of our proposed model and algorithm through numerical experiments.

In this paper, we propose a novel framework dubbed peer learning to deal with the problem of biased scene graph generation (SGG). This framework uses predicate sampling and consensus voting (PSCV) to encourage different peers to learn from each other, improving model diversity and mitigating bias in SGG. To address the heavily long-tailed distribution of predicate classes, we propose to use predicate sampling to divide and conquer this issue. As a result, the model is less biased and makes more balanced predicate predictions. Specifically, one peer may not be sufficiently diverse to discriminate between different levels of predicate distributions. Therefore, we sample the data distribution based on frequency of predicates into sub-distributions, selecting head, body, and tail classes to combine and feed to different peers as complementary predicate knowledge during the training process. The complementary predicate knowledge of these peers is then ensembled utilizing a consensus voting strategy, which simulates a civilized voting process in our society that emphasizes the majority opinion and diminishes the minority opinion. This approach ensures that the learned representations of each peer are optimally adapted to the various data distributions. Extensive experiments on the Visual Genome dataset demonstrate that PSCV outperforms previous methods. We have established a new state-of-the-art (SOTA) on the SGCls task by achieving a mean of \textbf{31.6}.

Audio-Visual scene understanding is a challenging problem due to the unstructured spatial-temporal relations that exist in the audio signals and spatial layouts of different objects and various texture patterns in the visual images. Recently, many studies have focused on abstracting features from convolutional neural networks while the learning of explicit semantically relevant frames of sound signals and visual images has been overlooked. To this end, we present an end-to-end framework, namely attentional graph convolutional network (AGCN), for structure-aware audio-visual scene representation. First, the spectrogram of sound and input image is processed by a backbone network for feature extraction. Then, to build multi-scale hierarchical information of input features, we utilize an attention fusion mechanism to aggregate features from multiple layers of the backbone network. Notably, to well represent the salient regions and contextual information of audio-visual inputs, the salient acoustic graph (SAG) and contextual acoustic graph (CAG), salient visual graph (SVG), and contextual visual graph (CVG) are constructed for the audio-visual scene representation. Finally, the constructed graphs pass through a graph convolutional network for structure-aware audio-visual scene recognition. Extensive experimental results on the audio, visual and audio-visual scene recognition datasets show that promising results have been achieved by the AGCN methods. Visualizing graphs on the spectrograms and images have been presented to show the effectiveness of proposed CAG/SAG and CVG/SVG that could focus on the salient and semantic relevant regions.

Forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; EC for short) can provide a basis for the establishment of maritime-disaster warning systems, but they contain some systematic biases.The fifth-generation EC atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data have high accuracy, but are delayed by about 5 days. To overcome this issue, a spatiotemporal deep-learning method could be used for nonlinear mapping between EC and ERA5 data, which would improve the quality of EC wind forecast data in real time. In this study, we developed the Multi-Task-Double Encoder Trajectory Gated Recurrent Unit (MT-DETrajGRU) model, which uses an improved double-encoder forecaster architecture to model the spatiotemporal sequence of the U and V components of the wind field; we designed a multi-task learning loss function to correct wind speed and wind direction simultaneously using only one model. The study area was the western North Pacific (WNP), and real-time rolling bias corrections were made for 10-day wind-field forecasts released by the EC between December 2020 and November 2021, divided into four seasons. Compared with the original EC forecasts, after correction using the MT-DETrajGRU model the wind speed and wind direction biases in the four seasons were reduced by 8-11% and 9-14%, respectively. In addition, the proposed method modelled the data uniformly under different weather conditions. The correction performance under normal and typhoon conditions was comparable, indicating that the data-driven mode constructed here is robust and generalizable.

We introduce a machine-learning (ML)-based weather simulator--called "GraphCast"--which outperforms the most accurate deterministic operational medium-range weather forecasting system in the world, as well as all previous ML baselines. GraphCast is an autoregressive model, based on graph neural networks and a novel high-resolution multi-scale mesh representation, which we trained on historical weather data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ERA5 reanalysis archive. It can make 10-day forecasts, at 6-hour time intervals, of five surface variables and six atmospheric variables, each at 37 vertical pressure levels, on a 0.25-degree latitude-longitude grid, which corresponds to roughly 25 x 25 kilometer resolution at the equator. Our results show GraphCast is more accurate than ECMWF's deterministic operational forecasting system, HRES, on 90.0% of the 2760 variable and lead time combinations we evaluated. GraphCast also outperforms the most accurate previous ML-based weather forecasting model on 99.2% of the 252 targets it reported. GraphCast can generate a 10-day forecast (35 gigabytes of data) in under 60 seconds on Cloud TPU v4 hardware. Unlike traditional forecasting methods, ML-based forecasting scales well with data: by training on bigger, higher quality, and more recent data, the skill of the forecasts can improve. Together these results represent a key step forward in complementing and improving weather modeling with ML, open new opportunities for fast, accurate forecasting, and help realize the promise of ML-based simulation in the physical sciences.