世界上最大的可可生产国C \^ote d'Ivoire and Ghana占全球可可生产的三分之二。在这两个国家，可可都是多年生作物，为近200万农民提供收入。然而，缺少可可种植区域的精确地图，阻碍了保护区，生产和产量的准确量化，并限制了可用于改善可持续性治理的信息。在这里，我们将可可种植园数据与公开可用的卫星图像结合在深度学习框架中，并为两国的可可种植园创建高分辨率地图，并被现场验证。我们的结果表明，可可栽培是C \^ote d'Ivoire和Ghane的保护区中森林损失的37％以上和13％的潜在驱动因素，该官员报告大大低估了种植的地区，最高40％在加纳。这些地图是提高可可生产地区保护和经济发展的关键基础。

以知情方式监测和管理地球林是解决生物多样性损失和气候变化等挑战的重要要求。虽然森林评估的传统或空中运动提供了在区域一级分析的准确数据，但将其扩展到整个国家，以外的高度分辨率几乎不可能。在这项工作中，我们提出了一种贝叶斯深度学习方法，以10米的分辨率为全国范围的森林结构变量，使用自由可用的卫星图像作为输入。我们的方法将Sentinel-2光学图像和Sentinel-1合成孔径雷达图像共同变换为五种不同的森林结构变量的地图：95th高度百分位，平均高度，密度，基尼系数和分数盖。我们从挪威的41个机载激光扫描任务中培训和测试我们的模型，并证明它能够概括取消测试区域，从而达到11％和15％之间的归一化平均值误差，具体取决于变量。我们的工作也是第一个提出贝叶斯深度学习方法的工作，以预测具有良好校准的不确定性估计的森林结构变量。这些提高了模型的可信度及其适用于需要可靠的信心估计的下游任务，例如知情决策。我们提出了一组广泛的实验，以验证预测地图的准确性以及预测的不确定性的质量。为了展示可扩展性，我们为五个森林结构变量提供挪威地图。

美国宇航局的全球生态系统动力学调查（GEDI）是一个关键的气候使命，其目标是推进我们对森林在全球碳循环中的作用的理解。虽然GEDI是第一个基于空间的激光器，明确优化，以测量地上生物质的垂直森林结构预测，这对广泛的观测和环境条件的大量波形数据的准确解释是具有挑战性的。在这里，我们提出了一种新颖的监督机器学习方法来解释GEDI波形和全球标注冠层顶部高度。我们提出了一种基于深度卷积神经网络（CNN）集合的概率深度学习方法，以避免未知效果的显式建模，例如大气噪声。该模型学会提取概括地理区域的强大特征，此外，产生可靠的预测性不确定性估计。最终，我们模型产生的全球顶棚顶部高度估计估计的预期RMSE为2.7米，低偏差。

This paper revisits a fundamental problem in statistical inference from a non-asymptotic theoretical viewpoint $\unicode{x2013}$ the construction of confidence sets. We establish a finite-sample bound for the estimator, characterizing its asymptotic behavior in a non-asymptotic fashion. An important feature of our bound is that its dimension dependency is captured by the effective dimension $\unicode{x2013}$ the trace of the limiting sandwich covariance $\unicode{x2013}$ which can be much smaller than the parameter dimension in some regimes. We then illustrate how the bound can be used to obtain a confidence set whose shape is adapted to the optimization landscape induced by the loss function. Unlike previous works that rely heavily on the strong convexity of the loss function, we only assume the Hessian is lower bounded at optimum and allow it to gradually becomes degenerate. This property is formalized by the notion of generalized self-concordance which originated from convex optimization. Moreover, we demonstrate how the effective dimension can be estimated from data and characterize its estimation accuracy. We apply our results to maximum likelihood estimation with generalized linear models, score matching with exponential families, and hypothesis testing with Rao's score test.

Generative AI has matured to a point where large-scale models can generate text that seems indistinguishable from human-written text and remarkably photorealistic images. Automatically measuring how close the distribution of generated data is to the target real data distribution is a key step in diagnosing existing models and developing better models. We present MAUVE, a family of comparison measures between pairs of distributions such as those encountered in the generative modeling of text or images. These scores are statistical summaries of divergence frontiers capturing two types of errors in generative modeling. We explore four approaches to statistically estimate these scores: vector quantization, non-parametric estimation, classifier-based estimation, and parametric Gaussian approximations. We provide statistical bounds for the vector quantization approach. Empirically, we find that the proposed scores paired with a range of $f$-divergences and statistical estimation methods can quantify the gaps between the distributions of human-written text and those of modern neural language models by correlating with human judgments and identifying known properties of the generated texts. We conclude the paper by demonstrating its applications to other AI domains and discussing practical recommendations.

Kernels are efficient in representing nonlocal dependence and they are widely used to design operators between function spaces. Thus, learning kernels in operators from data is an inverse problem of general interest. Due to the nonlocal dependence, the inverse problem can be severely ill-posed with a data-dependent singular inversion operator. The Bayesian approach overcomes the ill-posedness through a non-degenerate prior. However, a fixed non-degenerate prior leads to a divergent posterior mean when the observation noise becomes small, if the data induces a perturbation in the eigenspace of zero eigenvalues of the inversion operator. We introduce a data-adaptive prior to achieve a stable posterior whose mean always has a small noise limit. The data-adaptive prior's covariance is the inversion operator with a hyper-parameter selected adaptive to data by the L-curve method. Furthermore, we provide a detailed analysis on the computational practice of the data-adaptive prior, and demonstrate it on Toeplitz matrices and integral operators. Numerical tests show that a fixed prior can lead to a divergent posterior mean in the presence of any of the four types of errors: discretization error, model error, partial observation and wrong noise assumption. In contrast, the data-adaptive prior always attains posterior means with small noise limits.

The future of population-based breast cancer screening is likely personalized strategies based on clinically relevant risk models. Mammography-based risk models should remain robust to domain shifts caused by different populations and mammographic devices. Modern risk models do not ensure adaptation across vendor-domains and are often conflated to unintentionally rely on both precursors of cancer and systemic/global mammographic information associated with short- and long-term risk, respectively, which might limit performance. We developed a robust, cross-vendor model for long-term risk assessment. An augmentation-based domain adaption technique, based on flavorization of mammographic views, ensured generalization to an unseen vendor-domain. We trained on samples without diagnosed/potential malignant findings to learn systemic/global breast tissue features, called mammographic texture, indicative of future breast cancer. However, training so may cause erratic convergence. By excluding noise-inducing samples and designing a case-control dataset, a robust ensemble texture model was trained. This model was validated in two independent datasets. In 66,607 Danish women with flavorized Siemens views, the AUC was 0.71 and 0.65 for prediction of interval cancers within two years (ICs) and from two years after screening (LTCs), respectively. In a combination with established risk factors, the model's AUC increased to 0.68 for LTCs. In 25,706 Dutch women with Hologic-processed views, the AUCs were not different from the AUCs in Danish women with flavorized views. The results suggested that the model robustly estimated long-term risk while adapting to an unseen processed vendor-domain. The model identified 8.1% of Danish women accounting for 20.9% of ICs and 14.2% of LTCs.

We present 3D Highlighter, a technique for localizing semantic regions on a mesh using text as input. A key feature of our system is the ability to interpret "out-of-domain" localizations. Our system demonstrates the ability to reason about where to place non-obviously related concepts on an input 3D shape, such as adding clothing to a bare 3D animal model. Our method contextualizes the text description using a neural field and colors the corresponding region of the shape using a probability-weighted blend. Our neural optimization is guided by a pre-trained CLIP encoder, which bypasses the need for any 3D datasets or 3D annotations. Thus, 3D Highlighter is highly flexible, general, and capable of producing localizations on a myriad of input shapes. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/threedle/3DHighlighter.

We present a machine-learning framework to accurately characterize morphologies of Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) host galaxies within $z<1$. We first use PSFGAN to decouple host galaxy light from the central point source, then we invoke the Galaxy Morphology Network (GaMorNet) to estimate whether the host galaxy is disk-dominated, bulge-dominated, or indeterminate. Using optical images from five bands of the HSC Wide Survey, we build models independently in three redshift bins: low $(0<z<0.25)$, medium $(0.25<z<0.5)$, and high $(0.5<z<1.0)$. By first training on a large number of simulated galaxies, then fine-tuning using far fewer classified real galaxies, our framework predicts the actual morphology for $\sim$ $60\%-70\%$ host galaxies from test sets, with a classification precision of $\sim$ $80\%-95\%$, depending on redshift bin. Specifically, our models achieve disk precision of $96\%/82\%/79\%$ and bulge precision of $90\%/90\%/80\%$ (for the 3 redshift bins), at thresholds corresponding to indeterminate fractions of $30\%/43\%/42\%$. The classification precision of our models has a noticeable dependency on host galaxy radius and magnitude. No strong dependency is observed on contrast ratio. Comparing classifications of real AGNs, our models agree well with traditional 2D fitting with GALFIT. The PSFGAN+GaMorNet framework does not depend on the choice of fitting functions or galaxy-related input parameters, runs orders of magnitude faster than GALFIT, and is easily generalizable via transfer learning, making it an ideal tool for studying AGN host galaxy morphology in forthcoming large imaging survey.

Modelling the temperature of Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries is a fundamental task of EV manufacturing. Extreme temperatures in the battery packs can affect their longevity and power output. Although theoretical models exist for describing heat transfer in battery packs, they are computationally expensive to simulate. Furthermore, it is difficult to acquire data measurements from within the battery cell. In this work, we propose a data-driven surrogate model (LiFe-net) that uses readily accessible driving diagnostics for battery temperature estimation to overcome these limitations. This model incorporates Neural Operators with a traditional numerical integration scheme to estimate the temperature evolution. Moreover, we propose two further variations of the baseline model: LiFe-net trained with a regulariser and LiFe-net trained with time stability loss. We compared these models in terms of generalization error on test data. The results showed that LiFe-net trained with time stability loss outperforms the other two models and can estimate the temperature evolution on unseen data with a relative error of 2.77 % on average.