National research evaluation initiatives and incentive schemes have previously chosen between simplistic quantitative indicators and time-consuming peer review, sometimes supported by bibliometrics. Here we assess whether artificial intelligence (AI) could provide a third alternative, estimating article quality using more multiple bibliometric and metadata inputs. We investigated this using provisional three-level REF2021 peer review scores for 84,966 articles submitted to the UK Research Excellence Framework 2021, matching a Scopus record 2014-18 and with a substantial abstract. We found that accuracy is highest in the medical and physical sciences Units of Assessment (UoAs) and economics, reaching 42% above the baseline (72% overall) in the best case. This is based on 1000 bibliometric inputs and half of the articles used for training in each UoA. Prediction accuracies above the baseline for the social science, mathematics, engineering, arts, and humanities UoAs were much lower or close to zero. The Random Forest Classifier (standard or ordinal) and Extreme Gradient Boosting Classifier algorithms performed best from the 32 tested. Accuracy was lower if UoAs were merged or replaced by Scopus broad categories. We increased accuracy with an active learning strategy and by selecting articles with higher prediction probabilities, as estimated by the algorithms, but this substantially reduced the number of scores predicted.

语言模型既展示了定量的改进，又展示了新的定性功能，随着规模的增加。尽管它们具有潜在的变革性影响，但这些新能力的特征却很差。为了为未来的研究提供信息，为破坏性的新模型能力做准备，并改善社会有害的效果，至关重要的是，我们必须了解目前和近乎未来的能力和语言模型的局限性。为了应对这一挑战，我们介绍了超越模仿游戏基准（Big Bench）。 Big Bench目前由204个任务组成，由132家机构的442位作者贡献。任务主题是多样的，从语言学，儿童发展，数学，常识性推理，生物学，物理学，社会偏见，软件开发等等。 Big-Bench专注于被认为超出当前语言模型的功能的任务。我们评估了OpenAI的GPT型号，Google内部密集变压器体系结构和大型基础上的开关稀疏变压器的行为，跨越了数百万到数十亿个参数。此外，一个人类专家评估者团队执行了所有任务，以提供强大的基准。研究结果包括：模型性能和校准都随规模改善，但绝对的术语（以及与评估者的性能相比）；在模型类中的性能非常相似，尽管带有稀疏性。逐渐和预测的任务通常涉及大量知识或记忆成分，而在临界规模上表现出“突破性”行为的任务通常涉及多个步骤或组成部分或脆性指标；社交偏见通常会随着含糊不清的环境而随着规模而增加，但这可以通过提示来改善。

Recent advances in open-domain question answering (ODQA) have demonstrated impressive accuracy on standard Wikipedia style benchmarks. However, it is less clear how robust these models are and how well they perform when applied to real-world applications in drastically different domains. While there has been some work investigating how well ODQA models perform when tested for out-of-domain (OOD) generalization, these studies have been conducted only under conservative shifts in data distribution and typically focus on a single component (ie. retrieval) rather than an end-to-end system. In response, we propose a more realistic and challenging domain shift evaluation setting and, through extensive experiments, study end-to-end model performance. We find that not only do models fail to generalize, but high retrieval scores often still yield poor answer prediction accuracy. We then categorize different types of shifts and propose techniques that, when presented with a new dataset, predict if intervention methods are likely to be successful. Finally, using insights from this analysis, we propose and evaluate several intervention methods which improve end-to-end answer F1 score by up to 24 points.

With the rise in high resolution remote sensing technologies there has been an explosion in the amount of data available for forest monitoring, and an accompanying growth in artificial intelligence applications to automatically derive forest properties of interest from these datasets. Many studies use their own data at small spatio-temporal scales, and demonstrate an application of an existing or adapted data science method for a particular task. This approach often involves intensive and time-consuming data collection and processing, but generates results restricted to specific ecosystems and sensor types. There is a lack of widespread acknowledgement of how the types and structures of data used affects performance and accuracy of analysis algorithms. To accelerate progress in the field more efficiently, benchmarking datasets upon which methods can be tested and compared are sorely needed. Here, we discuss how lack of standardisation impacts confidence in estimation of key forest properties, and how considerations of data collection need to be accounted for in assessing method performance. We present pragmatic requirements and considerations for the creation of rigorous, useful benchmarking datasets for forest monitoring applications, and discuss how tools from modern data science can improve use of existing data. We list a set of example large-scale datasets that could contribute to benchmarking, and present a vision for how community-driven, representative benchmarking initiatives could benefit the field.

Differentiable Search Indices (DSIs) encode a corpus of documents in the parameters of a model and use the same model to map queries directly to relevant document identifiers. Despite the strong performance of DSI models, deploying them in situations where the corpus changes over time is computationally expensive because reindexing the corpus requires re-training the model. In this work, we introduce DSI++, a continual learning challenge for DSI to incrementally index new documents while being able to answer queries related to both previously and newly indexed documents. Across different model scales and document identifier representations, we show that continual indexing of new documents leads to considerable forgetting of previously indexed documents. We also hypothesize and verify that the model experiences forgetting events during training, leading to unstable learning. To mitigate these issues, we investigate two approaches. The first focuses on modifying the training dynamics. Flatter minima implicitly alleviate forgetting, so we optimize for flatter loss basins and show that the model stably memorizes more documents (+12\%). Next, we introduce a generative memory to sample pseudo-queries for documents and supplement them during continual indexing to prevent forgetting for the retrieval task. Extensive experiments on novel continual indexing benchmarks based on Natural Questions (NQ) and MS MARCO demonstrate that our proposed solution mitigates forgetting by a significant margin. Concretely, it improves the average Hits@10 by $+21.1\%$ over competitive baselines for NQ and requires $6$ times fewer model updates compared to re-training the DSI model for incrementally indexing five corpora in a sequence.

Recent work has reported that AI classifiers trained on audio recordings can accurately predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV2) infection status. Here, we undertake a large scale study of audio-based deep learning classifiers, as part of the UK governments pandemic response. We collect and analyse a dataset of audio recordings from 67,842 individuals with linked metadata, including reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test outcomes, of whom 23,514 tested positive for SARS CoV 2. Subjects were recruited via the UK governments National Health Service Test-and-Trace programme and the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) randomised surveillance survey. In an unadjusted analysis of our dataset AI classifiers predict SARS-CoV-2 infection status with high accuracy (Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve (ROCAUC) 0.846 [0.838, 0.854]) consistent with the findings of previous studies. However, after matching on measured confounders, such as age, gender, and self reported symptoms, our classifiers performance is much weaker (ROC-AUC 0.619 [0.594, 0.644]). Upon quantifying the utility of audio based classifiers in practical settings, we find them to be outperformed by simple predictive scores based on user reported symptoms.

The UK COVID-19 Vocal Audio Dataset is designed for the training and evaluation of machine learning models that classify SARS-CoV-2 infection status or associated respiratory symptoms using vocal audio. The UK Health Security Agency recruited voluntary participants through the national Test and Trace programme and the REACT-1 survey in England from March 2021 to March 2022, during dominant transmission of the Alpha and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants and some Omicron variant sublineages. Audio recordings of volitional coughs, exhalations, and speech were collected in the 'Speak up to help beat coronavirus' digital survey alongside demographic, self-reported symptom and respiratory condition data, and linked to SARS-CoV-2 test results. The UK COVID-19 Vocal Audio Dataset represents the largest collection of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-referenced audio recordings to date. PCR results were linked to 70,794 of 72,999 participants and 24,155 of 25,776 positive cases. Respiratory symptoms were reported by 45.62% of participants. This dataset has additional potential uses for bioacoustics research, with 11.30% participants reporting asthma, and 27.20% with linked influenza PCR test results.

The polynomial kernels are widely used in machine learning and they are one of the default choices to develop kernel-based classification and regression models. However, they are rarely used and considered in numerical analysis due to their lack of strict positive definiteness. In particular they do not enjoy the usual property of unisolvency for arbitrary point sets, which is one of the key properties used to build kernel-based interpolation methods. This paper is devoted to establish some initial results for the study of these kernels, and their related interpolation algorithms, in the context of approximation theory. We will first prove necessary and sufficient conditions on point sets which guarantee the existence and uniqueness of an interpolant. We will then study the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (or native spaces) of these kernels and their norms, and provide inclusion relations between spaces corresponding to different kernel parameters. With these spaces at hand, it will be further possible to derive generic error estimates which apply to sufficiently smooth functions, thus escaping the native space. Finally, we will show how to employ an efficient stable algorithm to these kernels to obtain accurate interpolants, and we will test them in some numerical experiment. After this analysis several computational and theoretical aspects remain open, and we will outline possible further research directions in a concluding section. This work builds some bridges between kernel and polynomial interpolation, two topics to which the authors, to different extents, have been introduced under the supervision or through the work of Stefano De Marchi. For this reason, they wish to dedicate this work to him in the occasion of his 60th birthday.

Plastic shopping bags that get carried away from the side of roads and tangled on cotton plants can end up at cotton gins if not removed before the harvest. Such bags may not only cause problem in the ginning process but might also get embodied in cotton fibers reducing its quality and marketable value. Therefore, it is required to detect, locate, and remove the bags before cotton is harvested. Manually detecting and locating these bags in cotton fields is labor intensive, time-consuming and a costly process. To solve these challenges, we present application of four variants of YOLOv5 (YOLOv5s, YOLOv5m, YOLOv5l and YOLOv5x) for detecting plastic shopping bags using Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)-acquired RGB (Red, Green, and Blue) images. We also show fixed effect model tests of color of plastic bags as well as YOLOv5-variant on average precision (AP), mean average precision (mAP@50) and accuracy. In addition, we also demonstrate the effect of height of plastic bags on the detection accuracy. It was found that color of bags had significant effect (p < 0.001) on accuracy across all the four variants while it did not show any significant effect on the AP with YOLOv5m (p = 0.10) and YOLOv5x (p = 0.35) at 95% confidence level. Similarly, YOLOv5-variant did not show any significant effect on the AP (p = 0.11) and accuracy (p = 0.73) of white bags, but it had significant effects on the AP (p = 0.03) and accuracy (p = 0.02) of brown bags including on the mAP@50 (p = 0.01) and inference speed (p < 0.0001). Additionally, height of plastic bags had significant effect (p < 0.0001) on overall detection accuracy. The findings reported in this paper can be useful in speeding up removal of plastic bags from cotton fields before harvest and thereby reducing the amount of contaminants that end up at cotton gins.

Informed consent has become increasingly salient for data privacy and its regulation. Entities from governments to for-profit companies have addressed concerns about data privacy with policies that enumerate the conditions for personal data storage and transfer. However, increased enumeration of and transparency in data privacy policies has not improved end-users' comprehension of how their data might be used: not only are privacy policies written in legal language that users may struggle to understand, but elements of these policies may compose in such a way that the consequences of the policy are not immediately apparent. We present a framework that uses Answer Set Programming (ASP) -- a type of logic programming -- to formalize privacy policies. Privacy policies thus become constraints on a narrative planning space, allowing end-users to forward-simulate possible consequences of the policy in terms of actors having roles and taking actions in a domain. We demonstrate through the example of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) how to use the system in various ways, including asking questions about possibilities and identifying which clauses of the law are broken by a given sequence of events.