Markowitz mean-variance portfolios with sample mean and covariance as input parameters feature numerous issues in practice. They perform poorly out of sample due to estimation error, they experience extreme weights together with high sensitivity to change in input parameters. The heavy-tail characteristics of financial time series are in fact the cause for these erratic fluctuations of weights that consequently create substantial transaction costs. In robustifying the weights we present a toolbox for stabilizing costs and weights for global minimum Markowitz portfolios. Utilizing a projected gradient descent (PGD) technique, we avoid the estimation and inversion of the covariance operator as a whole and concentrate on robust estimation of the gradient descent increment. Using modern tools of robust statistics we construct a computationally efficient estimator with almost Gaussian properties based on median-of-means uniformly over weights. This robustified Markowitz approach is confirmed by empirical studies on equity markets. We demonstrate that robustified portfolios reach the lowest turnover compared to shrinkage-based and constrained portfolios while preserving or slightly improving out-of-sample performance.
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最尖锐的已知高概率泛化界限均匀稳定的算法(Feldman,Vondr \'{A} K,2018,2010),(Bousquet,Klochkov,Jhivotovskiy,2020)包含一般不可避免的采样误差术语,订单$ \ Theta(1 / \ sqrt {n})$。当应用于过度的风险范围时,这导致次优导致在几个标准随机凸优化问题中。我们表明,如果满足所谓的伯尔斯坦状况,则可以避免术语$ \θ(1 / \ sqrt {n})$,并且高达$ o(1 / n)$的高概率过剩风险范围通过均匀的稳定性是可能的。使用此结果,我们展示了高概率过度的风险,其速率为O $ O(\ log n / n)$的强大凸,Lipschitz损失为\ emph {任何}经验风险最小化方法。这解决了Shalev-Shwartz,Shamir,Srebro和Sridharan(2009)的问题。我们讨论如何(\ log n / n)$高概率过度风险缩小,在没有通常的平滑度的情况下强烈凸起和嘴唇损耗的情况下,可能的梯度下降可能是可能的。
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