分类加强学习（RL） - 其中代理人了解其行动的所有可能的长期后果，而不仅仅是预期的价值 - 最近的兴趣。分配视图的最重要可接受性之一是在结果不完全确定的情况下促进现代，测量的，风险的风险。相比之下，在风险下决策的心理和神经科学调查利用了各种更令人尊敬的理论模型，例如缺乏公理理想的性质，例如连贯性。在这里，我们考虑了用于建模人类和动物规划的风险措施，称为有条件的价值 - 风险（CVAR），这量化了最坏情况结果（例如，车辆事故或捕食）。我们首先在连续的情况下采用传统的分布方法，在序列环境中，在众所周知的两步任务中重新分析人类决策者的选择，揭示了在粘性和坚持下潜伏的大量风险厌恶。然后，我们考虑风险敏感性的进一步关键特性，即时间一致性，显示出这种形式的CVAR的替代品，享受这种理想的特征。我们使用模拟来检查各种形式的设置，其中各种形式因对人类和动物规划和行为而产生影响的方式。

有条件的价值 - 风险（CVAR）精确地表征了稀有，灾难性事件可以在决策中施加的影响。这些表征对于正常决策和焦虑症（如焦虑症）的精神病条件都很重要 - 特别是对于最终可能导致灾难的决定序列。Cvar，如其他良好的风险措施，在这些序列中以复杂的方式化合物 - 并且我们最近正式地形成了三种结构不同的形式，其中风险平均或乘法。不幸的是，现有的认知任务未能辨别这些方法;在这里，我们提供了突出其独特特征的示例，并使正式的链接到时间折扣，这两种方法是一致的。这些例子可以将未来的实验与更广泛的实验进行了成绩，表征风险态度，特别是对于更长的地平线问题和精神病理学人群。

有效计划的能力对于生物体和人造系统都是至关重要的。在认知神经科学和人工智能（AI）中广泛研究了基于模型的计划和假期，但是从不同的角度来看，以及难以调和的考虑（生物现实主义与可伸缩性）的不同意见（生物现实主义与可伸缩性）。在这里，我们介绍了一种新颖的方法来计划大型POMDP（Active Tree search（ACT）），该方法结合了神经科学中领先的计划理论的规范性特征和生物学现实主义（主动推论）和树木搜索方法的可扩展性AI。这种统一对两种方法都是有益的。一方面，使用树搜索可以使生物学接地的第一原理，主动推断的方法可应用于大规模问题。另一方面，主动推理为探索 - 开发困境提供了一种原则性的解决方案，该解决方案通常在树搜索方法中以启发性解决。我们的模拟表明，ACT成功地浏览了对基于抽样的方法，需要自适应探索的问题以及大型POMDP问题“ RockSample”的二进制树，其中ACT近似于最新的POMDP解决方案。此外，我们说明了如何使用ACT来模拟人类和其他解决大型计划问题的人类和其他动物的神经生理反应（例如，在海马和前额叶皮层）。这些数值分析表明，主动树搜索是神经科学和AI计划理论的原则性实现，既具有生物现实主义和可扩展性。

由于数据量增加，金融业的快速变化已经彻底改变了数据处理和数据分析的技术，并带来了新的理论和计算挑战。与古典随机控制理论和解决财务决策问题的其他分析方法相比，解决模型假设的财务决策问题，强化学习（RL）的新发展能够充分利用具有更少模型假设的大量财务数据并改善复杂的金融环境中的决策。该调查纸目的旨在审查最近的资金途径的发展和使用RL方法。我们介绍了马尔可夫决策过程，这是许多常用的RL方法的设置。然后引入各种算法，重点介绍不需要任何模型假设的基于价值和基于策略的方法。连接是用神经网络进行的，以扩展框架以包含深的RL算法。我们的调查通过讨论了这些RL算法在金融中各种决策问题中的应用，包括最佳执行，投资组合优化，期权定价和对冲，市场制作，智能订单路由和Robo-Awaring。

Curiosity for machine agents has been a focus of lively research activity. The study of human and animal curiosity, particularly specific curiosity, has unearthed several properties that would offer important benefits for machine learners, but that have not yet been well-explored in machine intelligence. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive, multidisciplinary survey of the field of animal and machine curiosity. As a principal contribution of this work, we use this survey as a foundation to introduce and define what we consider to be five of the most important properties of specific curiosity: 1) directedness towards inostensible referents, 2) cessation when satisfied, 3) voluntary exposure, 4) transience, and 5) coherent long-term learning. As a second main contribution of this work, we show how these properties may be implemented together in a proof-of-concept reinforcement learning agent: we demonstrate how the properties manifest in the behaviour of this agent in a simple non-episodic grid-world environment that includes curiosity-inducing locations and induced targets of curiosity. As we would hope, our example of a computational specific curiosity agent exhibits short-term directed behaviour while updating long-term preferences to adaptively seek out curiosity-inducing situations. This work, therefore, presents a landmark synthesis and translation of specific curiosity to the domain of machine learning and reinforcement learning and provides a novel view into how specific curiosity operates and in the future might be integrated into the behaviour of goal-seeking, decision-making computational agents in complex environments.

Classical reinforcement learning (RL) techniques are generally concerned with the design of decision-making policies driven by the maximisation of the expected outcome. Nevertheless, this approach does not take into consideration the potential risk associated with the actions taken, which may be critical in certain applications. To address that issue, the present research work introduces a novel methodology based on distributional RL to derive sequential decision-making policies that are sensitive to the risk, the latter being modelled by the tail of the return probability distribution. The core idea is to replace the $Q$ function generally standing at the core of learning schemes in RL by another function taking into account both the expected return and the risk. Named the risk-based utility function $U$, it can be extracted from the random return distribution $Z$ naturally learnt by any distributional RL algorithm. This enables to span the complete potential trade-off between risk minimisation and expected return maximisation, in contrast to fully risk-averse methodologies. Fundamentally, this research yields a truly practical and accessible solution for learning risk-sensitive policies with minimal modification to the distributional RL algorithm, and with an emphasis on the interpretability of the resulting decision-making process.

主动推断是建模生物学和人造药物的行为的概率框架，该框架源于最小化自由能的原理。近年来，该框架已成功地应用于各种情况下，其目标是最大程度地提高奖励，提供可比性，有时甚至是卓越的性能与替代方法。在本文中，我们通过演示如何以及何时进行主动推理代理执行最佳奖励的动作来阐明奖励最大化和主动推断之间的联系。确切地说，我们展示了主动推理为Bellman方程提供最佳解决方案的条件 - 这种公式是基于模型的增强学习和控制的几种方法。在部分观察到的马尔可夫决策过程中，标准的主动推理方案可以为计划视野1的最佳动作产生最佳动作，但不能超越。相比之下，最近开发的递归活跃推理方案（复杂的推理）可以在任何有限的颞范围内产生最佳作用。我们通过讨论主动推理和强化学习之间更广泛的关系来补充分析。

我们介绍了有关风险分析与自治系统控制之间的联系的历史概述。我们提供两个主要贡献。我们的第一个贡献是提出三个重叠的范式，以对庞大的文献进行分类：最严重的案例，风险中性和风险避免风险的范式。我们考虑对自治系统依赖手头应用的风险进行适当的评估。相比之下，仅使用预期，差异或概率来评估风险是典型的。我们的第二个贡献是统一风险和自治系统的概念。我们通过连接量化和优化从学术领域的系统行为引起的风险的方法来实现这一目标。该调查是高度多学科的。我们包括来自强化学习，随机和健壮的控制理论，运营研究和正式验证的研究。我们描述了基于模型的方法和无模型方法，重点是前者。最后，我们重点介绍了富有成果的领域，以供进一步研究。一个关键方向是将基于风险的模型和无模型的方法融合在一起，以增强系统的实时自适应能力，以改善人类和环境福利。

Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, statistical learning, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative optimization models expressed using measure of risk and related concepts. We survey the rapid development of risk measures over the last quarter century. From its beginning in financial engineering, we recount their spread to nearly all areas of engineering and applied mathematics. Solidly rooted in convex analysis, risk measures furnish a general framework for handling uncertainty with significant computational and theoretical advantages. We describe the key facts, list several concrete algorithms, and provide an extensive list of references for further reading. The survey recalls connections with utility theory and distributionally robust optimization, points to emerging applications areas such as fair machine learning, and defines measures of reliability.

我们提出了一个新的框架，以解决对风险敏感的增强学习（RL）问题，在该问题中，代理优化了时间一致的动态光谱风险度量。基于有条件诱因的概念，我们的方法构建（严格一致）评分函数在估计程序中用作惩罚者。我们的贡献是三重的：我们（i）设计了一种有效的方法来估计具有深层神经网络的动态频谱风险度量，（ii）证明，使用深层神经网络和任何任意精度，这些动态光谱风险度量可能近似于（iii）开发一种使用完整发作的风险敏感的参与者批评算法，不需要任何其他嵌套过渡。我们将概念上改进的增强学习算法与嵌套模拟方法进行了比较，并在两个设置中说明了其性能：统计套利和模拟和真实数据上的统计套利和投资组合分配。

Virtually all machine learning tasks are characterized using some form of loss function, and "good performance" is typically stated in terms of a sufficiently small average loss, taken over the random draw of test data. While optimizing for performance on average is intuitive, convenient to analyze in theory, and easy to implement in practice, such a choice brings about trade-offs. In this work, we survey and introduce a wide variety of non-traditional criteria used to design and evaluate machine learning algorithms, place the classical paradigm within the proper historical context, and propose a view of learning problems which emphasizes the question of "what makes for a desirable loss distribution?" in place of tacit use of the expected loss.

This paper surveys the eld of reinforcement learning from a computer-science perspective. It is written to be accessible to researchers familiar with machine learning. Both the historical basis of the eld and a broad selection of current work are summarized. Reinforcement learning is the problem faced by an agent that learns behavior through trial-and-error interactions with a dynamic environment. The work described here has a resemblance to work in psychology, but di ers considerably in the details and in the use of the word \reinforcement." The paper discusses central issues of reinforcement learning, including trading o exploration and exploitation, establishing the foundations of the eld via Markov decision theory, learning from delayed reinforcement, constructing empirical models to accelerate learning, making use of generalization and hierarchy, and coping with hidden state. It concludes with a survey of some implemented systems and an assessment of the practical utility of current methods for reinforcement learning.

Safe Reinforcement Learning can be defined as the process of learning policies that maximize the expectation of the return in problems in which it is important to ensure reasonable system performance and/or respect safety constraints during the learning and/or deployment processes. We categorize and analyze two approaches of Safe Reinforcement Learning. The first is based on the modification of the optimality criterion, the classic discounted finite/infinite horizon, with a safety factor. The second is based on the modification of the exploration process through the incorporation of external knowledge or the guidance of a risk metric. We use the proposed classification to survey the existing literature, as well as suggesting future directions for Safe Reinforcement Learning.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) is suitable for safety-critical domains where online exploration is too costly or dangerous. In safety-critical settings, decision-making should take into consideration the risk of catastrophic outcomes. In other words, decision-making should be risk-sensitive. Previous works on risk in offline RL combine together offline RL techniques, to avoid distributional shift, with risk-sensitive RL algorithms, to achieve risk-sensitivity. In this work, we propose risk-sensitivity as a mechanism to jointly address both of these issues. Our model-based approach is risk-averse to both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. Risk-aversion to epistemic uncertainty prevents distributional shift, as areas not covered by the dataset have high epistemic uncertainty. Risk-aversion to aleatoric uncertainty discourages actions that may result in poor outcomes due to environment stochasticity. Our experiments show that our algorithm achieves competitive performance on deterministic benchmarks, and outperforms existing approaches for risk-sensitive objectives in stochastic domains.

Bayesian adaptive experimental design is a form of active learning, which chooses samples to maximize the information they give about uncertain parameters. Prior work has shown that other forms of active learning can suffer from active learning bias, where unrepresentative sampling leads to inconsistent parameter estimates. We show that active learning bias can also afflict Bayesian adaptive experimental design, depending on model misspecification. We analyze the case of estimating a linear model, and show that worse misspecification implies more severe active learning bias. At the same time, model classes incorporating more "noise" - i.e., specifying higher inherent variance in observations - suffer less from active learning bias. Finally, we demonstrate empirically that insights from the linear model can predict the presence and degree of active learning bias in nonlinear contexts, namely in a (simulated) preference learning experiment.

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) describes a process for inferring quantifiable metrics of structural condition, which can serve as input to support decisions on the operation and maintenance of infrastructure assets. Given the long lifespan of critical structures, this problem can be cast as a sequential decision making problem over prescribed horizons. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) offer a formal framework to solve the underlying optimal planning task. However, two issues can undermine the POMDP solutions. Firstly, the need for a model that can adequately describe the evolution of the structural condition under deterioration or corrective actions and, secondly, the non-trivial task of recovery of the observation process parameters from available monitoring data. Despite these potential challenges, the adopted POMDP models do not typically account for uncertainty on model parameters, leading to solutions which can be unrealistically confident. In this work, we address both key issues. We present a framework to estimate POMDP transition and observation model parameters directly from available data, via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) conditioned on actions. The MCMC inference estimates distributions of the involved model parameters. We then form and solve the POMDP problem by exploiting the inferred distributions, to derive solutions that are robust to model uncertainty. We successfully apply our approach on maintenance planning for railway track assets on the basis of a "fractal value" indicator, which is computed from actual railway monitoring data.

The reward hypothesis posits that, "all of what we mean by goals and purposes can be well thought of as maximization of the expected value of the cumulative sum of a received scalar signal (reward)." We aim to fully settle this hypothesis. This will not conclude with a simple affirmation or refutation, but rather specify completely the implicit requirements on goals and purposes under which the hypothesis holds.

我们回顾了有关模型的文献，这些文献试图解释具有金钱回报的正常形式游戏所描述的社交互动中的人类行为。我们首先涵盖社会和道德偏好。然后，我们专注于日益增长的研究，表明人们对描述行动的语言做出反应，尤其是在激活道德问题时。最后，我们认为行为经济学正处于向基于语言的偏好转变的范式中，这将需要探索新的模型和实验设置。

Adequately assigning credit to actions for future outcomes based on their contributions is a long-standing open challenge in Reinforcement Learning. The assumptions of the most commonly used credit assignment method are disadvantageous in tasks where the effects of decisions are not immediately evident. Furthermore, this method can only evaluate actions that have been selected by the agent, making it highly inefficient. Still, no alternative methods have been widely adopted in the field. Hindsight Credit Assignment is a promising, but still unexplored candidate, which aims to solve the problems of both long-term and counterfactual credit assignment. In this thesis, we empirically investigate Hindsight Credit Assignment to identify its main benefits, and key points to improve. Then, we apply it to factored state representations, and in particular to state representations based on the causal structure of the environment. In this setting, we propose a variant of Hindsight Credit Assignment that effectively exploits a given causal structure. We show that our modification greatly decreases the workload of Hindsight Credit Assignment, making it more efficient and enabling it to outperform the baseline credit assignment method on various tasks. This opens the way to other methods based on given or learned causal structures.

当从人类行为中推断出奖励功能（无论是演示，比较，物理校正或电子停靠点）时，它已证明对人类进行建模作为做出嘈杂的理性选择，并具有“合理性系数”，以捕获多少噪声或熵我们希望看到人类的行为。无论人类反馈的类型或质量如何，许多现有作品都选择修复此系数。但是，在某些情况下，进行演示可能要比回答比较查询要困难得多。在这种情况下，我们应该期望在示范中看到比比较中更多的噪音或次级临时性，并且应该相应地解释反馈。在这项工作中，我们提倡，将每种反馈类型的实际数据中的理性系数扎根，而不是假设默认值，对奖励学习具有重大的积极影响。我们在模拟反馈以及用户研究的实验中测试了这一点。我们发现，从单一反馈类型中学习时，高估人类理性可能会对奖励准确性和遗憾产生可怕的影响。此外，我们发现合理性层面会影响每种反馈类型的信息性：令人惊讶的是，示威并不总是最有用的信息 - 当人类的行为非常卑鄙时，即使在合理性水平相同的情况下，比较实际上就变得更加有用。 。此外，当机器人确定要要求的反馈类型时，它可以通过准确建模每种类型的理性水平来获得很大的优势。最终，我们的结果强调了关注假定理性级别的重要性，不仅是在从单个反馈类型中学习时，尤其是当代理商从多种反馈类型中学习时，尤其是在学习时。