风能供应的可变性可能会给将风力发电纳入网格系统带来重大挑战。因此，风力预测（WPF）已被广泛认为是风能整合和操作中最关键的问题之一。在过去的几十年中，关于风能预测问题的研究爆炸了。然而，如何很好地处理WPF问题仍然具有挑战性，因为始终要求高预测准确性以确保电网稳定性和供应的安全性。我们提出了独特的空间动态风能预测数据集：SDWPF，其中包括风力涡轮机的空间分布以及动态上下文因素。鉴于，大多数现有数据集只有少量的风力涡轮机，而无需以细粒度的时间尺度了解风力涡轮机的位置和上下文信息。相比之下，SDWPF提供了半年多的风力涡轮机的风能数据，其相对位置和内部地位。我们使用此数据集启动BAIDU KDD杯2022来检查当前WPF解决方案的极限。该数据集在https://aistudio.baidu.com/aistudio/competition/detail/152/0/datasets上发布。

KDD CUP 2022提出了有关空间动态风能数据集的时间序列预测任务，其中要求参与者预测未来一代给定历史上下文因素。评估指标包含RMSE和MAE。本文介绍了团队88VIP的解决方案，该解决方案主要包括两种模型：梯度增强决策树，以记住基本数据模式和复发性神经网络，以捕获深层和潜在的概率过渡。结合这些模型有助于应对风力的波动，以及训练子模型对预测的异质时间尺度（从几分钟到几天）的杰出特性的目标。此外，还详细介绍了功能工程，插补技术和离线评估的设计。拟议的解决方案在第3阶段的总体在线得分为-45.213。

Wind power forecasting helps with the planning for the power systems by contributing to having a higher level of certainty in decision-making. Due to the randomness inherent to meteorological events (e.g., wind speeds), making highly accurate long-term predictions for wind power can be extremely difficult. One approach to remedy this challenge is to utilize weather information from multiple points across a geographical grid to obtain a holistic view of the wind patterns, along with temporal information from the previous power outputs of the wind farms. Our proposed CNN-RNN architecture combines convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to extract spatial and temporal information from multi-dimensional input data to make day-ahead predictions. In this regard, our method incorporates an ultra-wide learning view, combining data from multiple numerical weather prediction models, wind farms, and geographical locations. Additionally, we experiment with global forecasting approaches to understand the impact of training the same model over the datasets obtained from multiple different wind farms, and we employ a method where spatial information extracted from convolutional layers is passed to a tree ensemble (e.g., Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM)) instead of fully connected layers. The results show that our proposed CNN-RNN architecture outperforms other models such as LGBM, Extra Tree regressor and linear regression when trained globally, but fails to replicate such performance when trained individually on each farm. We also observe that passing the spatial information from CNN to LGBM improves its performance, providing further evidence of CNN's spatial feature extraction capabilities.

Forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; EC for short) can provide a basis for the establishment of maritime-disaster warning systems, but they contain some systematic biases.The fifth-generation EC atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data have high accuracy, but are delayed by about 5 days. To overcome this issue, a spatiotemporal deep-learning method could be used for nonlinear mapping between EC and ERA5 data, which would improve the quality of EC wind forecast data in real time. In this study, we developed the Multi-Task-Double Encoder Trajectory Gated Recurrent Unit (MT-DETrajGRU) model, which uses an improved double-encoder forecaster architecture to model the spatiotemporal sequence of the U and V components of the wind field; we designed a multi-task learning loss function to correct wind speed and wind direction simultaneously using only one model. The study area was the western North Pacific (WNP), and real-time rolling bias corrections were made for 10-day wind-field forecasts released by the EC between December 2020 and November 2021, divided into four seasons. Compared with the original EC forecasts, after correction using the MT-DETrajGRU model the wind speed and wind direction biases in the four seasons were reduced by 8-11% and 9-14%, respectively. In addition, the proposed method modelled the data uniformly under different weather conditions. The correction performance under normal and typhoon conditions was comparable, indicating that the data-driven mode constructed here is robust and generalizable.

提出了一种使用天气数据实时太阳生成预测的新方法，同时提出了既有空间结构依赖性的依赖。随着时间的推移，观察到的网络被预测到较低维度的表示，在该表示的情况下，在推理阶段使用天气预报时，使用各种天气测量来训练结构化回归模型。从国家太阳辐射数据库获得的德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥地区的288个地点进行了实验。该模型预测具有良好精度的太阳辐照度（夏季R2 0.91，冬季为0.85，全球模型为0.89）。随机森林回归者获得了最佳准确性。进行了多个实验来表征缺失数据的影响和不同的时间范围的影响，这些范围提供了证据表明，新算法不仅在随机的情况下，而且在机制是空间和时间上都丢失的数据是可靠的。

强大的电力系统的长期计划需要了解不断变化的需求模式。电力需求对天气敏感。因此，引入间歇性可再生能源的供应方面变化与可变需求并列，将在网格计划过程中引入其他挑战。通过了解美国温度的空间和时间变化，可以分开需求对自然变异性和与气候变化相关的影响的需求的响应，尤其是因为尚不清楚由于前一个因素所产生的影响。通过该项目，我们旨在通过开发机器和深入学习“背面销售”模型来更好地支持电力系统的技术和政策开发过程，以重建多年需求记录并研究温度的自然变异性及其对需求的影响。

Algorithms that involve both forecasting and optimization are at the core of solutions to many difficult real-world problems, such as in supply chains (inventory optimization), traffic, and in the transition towards carbon-free energy generation in battery/load/production scheduling in sustainable energy systems. Typically, in these scenarios we want to solve an optimization problem that depends on unknown future values, which therefore need to be forecast. As both forecasting and optimization are difficult problems in their own right, relatively few research has been done in this area. This paper presents the findings of the ``IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling," held in 2021. We present a comparison and evaluation of the seven highest-ranked solutions in the competition, to provide researchers with a benchmark problem and to establish the state of the art for this benchmark, with the aim to foster and facilitate research in this area. The competition used data from the Monash Microgrid, as well as weather data and energy market data. It then focused on two main challenges: forecasting renewable energy production and demand, and obtaining an optimal schedule for the activities (lectures) and on-site batteries that lead to the lowest cost of energy. The most accurate forecasts were obtained by gradient-boosted tree and random forest models, and optimization was mostly performed using mixed integer linear and quadratic programming. The winning method predicted different scenarios and optimized over all scenarios jointly using a sample average approximation method.

准确的短期太阳能和风电预测在电力系统的规划和运营中起着重要作用。然而，由于局部天气条件，由于局部天气条件，因此，可再生能源的短期功率预测始终被认为是复杂的回归问题，而输出能力的波动和动态变化规律，即时空相关性。为了同时捕获时空特征，本文提出了一种新的基于图的神经网络的短期功率预测方法，它结合了图形卷积网络（GCN）和长短期内存（LSTM）。具体地，GCN用于学习相邻可再生能量之间的复杂空间相关性，并且LSTM用于学习功率曲线的动态变化。仿真结果表明，该拟议的混合方法可以模拟可再生能源的时空相关性，其性能优于现实世界数据集上的流行基线。

分布式的小型太阳能光伏（PV）系统正在以快速增加的速度安装。这可能会对分销网络和能源市场产生重大影响。结果，在不同时间分辨率和视野中，非常需要改善对这些系统发电的预测。但是，预测模型的性能取决于分辨率和地平线。在这种情况下，将多个模型的预测结合到单个预测中的预测组合（合奏）可能是鲁棒的。因此，在本文中，我们提供了对五个最先进的预测模型的性能以及在多个分辨率和视野下的现有预测组合的比较和见解。我们提出了一种基于粒子群优化（PSO）的预测组合方法，该方法将通过加权单个模型产生的预测来使预报掌握能够为手头的任务产生准确的预测。此外，我们将提出的组合方法的性能与现有的预测组合方法进行了比较。使用现实世界中的PV电源数据集进行了全面的评估，该数据集在美国三个位置的25个房屋中测得。在四种不同的分辨率和四个不同视野之间的结果表明，基于PSO的预测组合方法的表现优于使用任何单独的预测模型和其他预测组合的使用，而平均平均绝对规模误差降低了3.81％，而最佳性能则最佳性能单个个人模型。我们的方法使太阳预报员能够为其应用产生准确的预测，而不管预测分辨率或视野如何。

随着高级数字技术的蓬勃发展，用户以及能源分销商有可能获得有关家庭用电的详细信息。这些技术也可以用来预测家庭用电量（又称负载）。在本文中，我们研究了变分模式分解和深度学习技术的使用，以提高负载预测问题的准确性。尽管在文献中已经研究了这个问题，但选择适当的分解水平和提供更好预测性能的深度学习技术的关注较少。这项研究通过研究六个分解水平和五个不同的深度学习网络的影响来弥合这一差距。首先，使用变分模式分解将原始负载轮廓分解为固有模式函数，以减轻其非平稳方面。然后，白天，小时和过去的电力消耗数据作为三维输入序列馈送到四级小波分解网络模型。最后，将与不同固有模式函数相关的预测序列组合在一起以形成聚合预测序列。使用摩洛哥建筑物的电力消耗数据集（MORED）的五个摩洛哥家庭的负载曲线评估了该方法，并根据最新的时间序列模型和基线持久性模型进行了基准测试。

就微电网的运行而言，最佳调度是必须考虑的至关重要问题。在这方面，本文提出了一个有效的框架，用于考虑储能设备，风力涡轮机，微型涡轮机的最佳计划可再生微电网。由于微电网操作问题的非线性和复杂性，使用准确且可靠的优化技术有效解决此问题至关重要。为此，在拟议的框架中，基于教师学习的优化可有效地解决系统中的调度问题。此外，提出了基于双向长期短期记忆的深度学习模型，以解决短期风能预测问题。使用IEEE 33-BUS测试系统检查了建议的框架的可行性和性能以及风力预测对操作效率的影响。此外，澳大利亚羊毛北风现场数据被用作现实世界数据集，以评估预测模型的性能。结果表明，在微电网的最佳计划中，提出的框架的有效性能有效。

本文描述了一个新颖的机器学习（ML）框架，用于热带气旋强度和轨道预测，结合了多种ML技术并利用了多种数据源。我们的多模式框架（称为Hurricast）有效地结合了时空数据和统计数据，通过提取具有深度学习的编码器编码器体系结构的特征，并通过梯度增强的树进行预测。我们在2016 - 2019年在北大西洋和东太平洋盆地进行了24小时的提前时间和强度预测，评估我们的模型，并表明它们在秒内计算时达到了当前操作预测模型的可比平均绝对误差和技能。此外，将飓风纳入运营预测的共识模型可以改善国家飓风中心的官方预测，从而通过现有方法突出显示互补物业。总而言之，我们的工作表明，利用机器学习技术结合不同的数据源可以带来热带气旋预测的新机会。

In this paper, we present Pangu-Weather, a deep learning based system for fast and accurate global weather forecast. For this purpose, we establish a data-driven environment by downloading $43$ years of hourly global weather data from the 5th generation of ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data and train a few deep neural networks with about $256$ million parameters in total. The spatial resolution of forecast is $0.25^\circ\times0.25^\circ$, comparable to the ECMWF Integrated Forecast Systems (IFS). More importantly, for the first time, an AI-based method outperforms state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy (latitude-weighted RMSE and ACC) of all factors (e.g., geopotential, specific humidity, wind speed, temperature, etc.) and in all time ranges (from one hour to one week). There are two key strategies to improve the prediction accuracy: (i) designing a 3D Earth Specific Transformer (3DEST) architecture that formulates the height (pressure level) information into cubic data, and (ii) applying a hierarchical temporal aggregation algorithm to alleviate cumulative forecast errors. In deterministic forecast, Pangu-Weather shows great advantages for short to medium-range forecast (i.e., forecast time ranges from one hour to one week). Pangu-Weather supports a wide range of downstream forecast scenarios, including extreme weather forecast (e.g., tropical cyclone tracking) and large-member ensemble forecast in real-time. Pangu-Weather not only ends the debate on whether AI-based methods can surpass conventional NWP methods, but also reveals novel directions for improving deep learning weather forecast systems.

天气预报是一项有吸引力的挑战性任务，因为它对人类生活和大气运动的复杂性的影响。在大量历史观察到的时间序列数据的支持下，该任务适用于数据驱动的方法，尤其是深层神经网络。最近，基于图神经网络（GNN）方法在时空预测方面取得了出色的性能。但是，基于规范的GNNS方法仅分别对每个站的气象变量的局部图或整个车站的全局图进行建模，从而缺乏不同站点的气象变量之间的信息相互作用。在本文中，我们提出了一种新型的层次时空图形神经网络（Histgnn），以模拟多个站点气象变量之间的跨区域时空相关性。自适应图学习层和空间图卷积用于构建自学习图，并研究可变级别和站点级别图的节点之间的隐藏依赖性。为了捕获时间模式，扩张的成立为GATE时间卷积的主干旨在对长而各种气象趋势进行建模。此外，提出了动态的交互学习来构建在层次图中传递的双向信息。三个现实世界中的气象数据集的实验结果表明，史基元超过7个基准的卓越性能，并且将误差降低了4.2％至11.6％，尤其是与最先进的天气预测方法相比。

We introduce a machine-learning (ML)-based weather simulator--called "GraphCast"--which outperforms the most accurate deterministic operational medium-range weather forecasting system in the world, as well as all previous ML baselines. GraphCast is an autoregressive model, based on graph neural networks and a novel high-resolution multi-scale mesh representation, which we trained on historical weather data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ERA5 reanalysis archive. It can make 10-day forecasts, at 6-hour time intervals, of five surface variables and six atmospheric variables, each at 37 vertical pressure levels, on a 0.25-degree latitude-longitude grid, which corresponds to roughly 25 x 25 kilometer resolution at the equator. Our results show GraphCast is more accurate than ECMWF's deterministic operational forecasting system, HRES, on 90.0% of the 2760 variable and lead time combinations we evaluated. GraphCast also outperforms the most accurate previous ML-based weather forecasting model on 99.2% of the 252 targets it reported. GraphCast can generate a 10-day forecast (35 gigabytes of data) in under 60 seconds on Cloud TPU v4 hardware. Unlike traditional forecasting methods, ML-based forecasting scales well with data: by training on bigger, higher quality, and more recent data, the skill of the forecasts can improve. Together these results represent a key step forward in complementing and improving weather modeling with ML, open new opportunities for fast, accurate forecasting, and help realize the promise of ML-based simulation in the physical sciences.

我们基于技能评分，对确定性太阳预测进行了首次全面的荟萃分析，筛选了Google Scholar的1,447篇论文，并审查了320篇论文的全文以进行数据提取。用多元自适应回归样条模型，部分依赖图和线性回归构建和分析了4,758点的数据库。值得注意的是，分析说明了数据中最重要的非线性关系和交互项。我们量化了对重要变量的预测准确性的影响，例如预测范围，分辨率，气候条件，区域的年度太阳辐照度水平，电力系统大小和容量，预测模型，火车和测试集以及使用不同的技术和投入。通过控制预测之间的关键差异，包括位置变量，可以在全球应用分析的发现。还提供了该领域科学进步的概述。

太阳能的间歇性质挑战了光伏（PV）在电网中的大规模集成。使用深度学习的基于天空图像的太阳预测已被认为是预测短期波动的一种有希望的方法。但是，对于基于图像的太阳预测，几乎没有公开可用的标准化基准数据集，这限制了不同预测模型的比较和预测方法的探索。为了填补这些空白，我们介绍了Skipp'd-天空图像和光伏发电数据集。该数据集包含三年（2017-2019）的质量控制下采样的天空图像和PV发电数据，这些数据可用于使用深度学习的短期太阳能预测。此外，为了支持研究的灵活性，我们还提供了高分辨率，高频天空图像和PV发电数据以及并发的Sky录像。我们还包括一个包含数据处理脚本和基线模型实现的代码库，以供研究人员重现我们以前的工作并加速其在太阳预测中的研究。

到2021年底，全球电力容量的可再生能源份额达到38.3％，新设施以风能和太阳能为主，分别显示全球增长12.7％和18.5％。但是，风能和光伏能源都是高度挥发性的，使得对网格操作员的计划很难，因此对相应天气变量的准确预测对于可靠的电力预测至关重要。天气预测中最先进的方法是合奏方法，它为概率预测打开了大门。尽管合奏预测通常不足，并且会遭受系统的偏见。因此，它们需要某种形式的统计后处理，其中参数模型提供了手头天气变量的完整预测分布。我们提出了一种基于两步机的一般学习方法，用于校准集合天气预报，在第一步中，生成了改进点的预测，然后将其与各种合奏统计数据一起作为神经网络的输入特征，估计估计的参数。预测分布。在两个案例研究中，基于100m风速和全球水平辐照度预测匈牙利气象服务的操作集合词典系统，将这种新颖方法的预测性能与原始合奏的预测技能进行了比较ART参数方法。两种案例研究都证实，至少高达48H统计后处理可实质上改善了所有被考虑的预测范围的原始合奏的预测性能。所提出的两步方法的研究变体在其竞争对手方面优于技能，建议的新方法非常适用于不同的天气数量和广泛的预测分布。

Sky-image-based solar forecasting using deep learning has been recognized as a promising approach in reducing the uncertainty in solar power generation. However, one of the biggest challenges is the lack of massive and diversified sky image samples. In this study, we present a comprehensive survey of open-source ground-based sky image datasets for very short-term solar forecasting (i.e., forecasting horizon less than 30 minutes), as well as related research areas which can potentially help improve solar forecasting methods, including cloud segmentation, cloud classification and cloud motion prediction. We first identify 72 open-source sky image datasets that satisfy the needs of machine/deep learning. Then a database of information about various aspects of the identified datasets is constructed. To evaluate each surveyed datasets, we further develop a multi-criteria ranking system based on 8 dimensions of the datasets which could have important impacts on usage of the data. Finally, we provide insights on the usage of these datasets for different applications. We hope this paper can provide an overview for researchers who are looking for datasets for very short-term solar forecasting and related areas.

Electricity prices in liberalized markets are determined by the supply and demand for electric power, which are in turn driven by various external influences that vary strongly in time. In perfect competition, the merit order principle describes that dispatchable power plants enter the market in the order of their marginal costs to meet the residual load, i.e. the difference of load and renewable generation. Many market models implement this principle to predict electricity prices but typically require certain assumptions and simplifications. In this article, we present an explainable machine learning model for the prices on the German day-ahead market, which substantially outperforms a benchmark model based on the merit order principle. Our model is designed for the ex-post analysis of prices and thus builds on various external features. Using Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values, we can disentangle the role of the different features and quantify their importance from empiric data. Load, wind and solar generation are most important, as expected, but wind power appears to affect prices stronger than solar power does. Fuel prices also rank highly and show nontrivial dependencies, including strong interactions with other features revealed by a SHAP interaction analysis. Large generation ramps are correlated with high prices, again with strong feature interactions, due to the limited flexibility of nuclear and lignite plants. Our results further contribute to model development by providing quantitative insights directly from data.