本文提出了在基于技术指标的股票交易的背景下的非主导分类遗传算法-II(NSGA-II),通过寻找销售买卖策略,使目标,即锐利比例和销售策略的最佳组合最大缩放分别最大化并最小化。选择NSGA-II,因为它是一种非常流行和强大的双目标进化算法。培训和测试使用了一种基于滚动的方法(两年培训和测试的一年),因此在没有主要经济波动的情况下,这种方法的结果在稳定的时期中似乎更好。此外,本研究的另一个重要贡献是通过整个建模方法纳入交易成本和领域专业知识。
translated by 谷歌翻译
Technical indicators use graphic representations of data sets by applying various mathematical formulas to financial time series of prices. These formulas comprise a set of rules and parameters whose values are not necessarily known and depend on many factors: the market in which it operates, the size of the time window, and others. This paper focuses on the real-time optimization of the parameters applied for analyzing time series of data. In particular, we optimize the parameters of technical and financial indicators and propose other applications, such as glucose time series. We propose the combination of several Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs). Unlike other approaches, this paper applies a set of different MOEAs, collaborating to construct a global Pareto Set of solutions. Solutions for financial problems seek high returns with minimal risk. The optimization process is continuous and occurs at the same frequency as the investment time interval. This technique permits the application of non-dominated solutions obtained with different MOEAs simultaneously. Experimental results show that this technique increases the returns of the commonly used Buy \& Hold strategy and other multi-objective strategies, even for daily operations.
translated by 谷歌翻译
决定何时购买或出售股票并不是一件容易的事,因为市场难以预测,受到政治和经济因素的影响。因此,基于计算智能的方法已应用于这个具有挑战性的问题。在这项工作中,每天使用技术分析标准以相似性(TOPSIS)的相似性(TOPSIS)对订单偏好进行排名,并选择最合适的股票进行购买。即便如此,在某些日子甚至Topsis都会选择不正确的选择。为了改善选择,应使用另一种方法。因此,提出了由经验模式分解(EMD)和极端学习机(ELM)组成的混合模型。 EMD将系列分解为几个子系列,因此提取了主要组分(趋势)。该组件由ELM处理,该组件执行下一个组件元素的预测。如果榆树预测的价值大于最后一个值,则确认购买股票的价值。该方法应用于巴西市场的50个股票的宇宙。与随机选择和Bovespa指数产生的回报相比,Topsis进行的选择显示出令人鼓舞的结果。使用EMD-ELM混合动力模型的确认能够增加利润交易的百分比。
translated by 谷歌翻译
股票市场的不可预测性和波动性使得使用任何广义计划赚取可观的利润具有挑战性。许多先前的研究尝试了不同的技术来建立机器学习模型,这可以通过进行实时交易来在美国股票市场赚取可观的利润。但是,很少有研究重点是在特定交易期找到最佳功能的重要性。我们的顶级方法使用该性能将功能从总共148缩小到大约30。此外,在每次训练我们的机器学习模型之前,都会动态选择前25个功能。它与四个分类器一起使用合奏学习:高斯天真贝叶斯,决策树,带L1正则化的逻辑回归和随机梯度下降,以决定是长时间还是短的特定股票。我们的最佳模型在2011年7月至2019年1月之间进行的每日交易,可获得54.35%的利润。最后,我们的工作表明,加权分类器的混合物的表现要比任何在股票市场做出交易决策的个人预测指标更好。
translated by 谷歌翻译
In today's uncertain and competitive market, where enterprises are subjected to increasingly shortened product life-cycles and frequent volume changes, reconfigurable manufacturing systems (RMS) applications play a significant role in the manufacturing industry's success. Despite the advantages offered by RMS, achieving a high-efficiency degree constitutes a challenging task for stakeholders and decision-makers when they face the trade-off decisions inherent in these complex systems. This study addresses work tasks and resource allocations to workstations together with buffer capacity allocation in RMS. The aim is to simultaneously maximize throughput and minimize total buffer capacity under fluctuating production volumes and capacity changes while considering the stochastic behavior of the system. An enhanced simulation-based multi-objective optimization (SMO) approach with customized simulation and optimization components is proposed to address the abovementioned challenges. Apart from presenting the optimal solutions subject to volume and capacity changes, the proposed approach support decision-makers with discovered knowledge to further understand the RMS design. In particular, this study presents a problem-specific customized SMO combined with a novel flexible pattern mining method for optimizing RMS and conducting post-optimal analyzes. To this extent, this study demonstrates the benefits of applying SMO and knowledge discovery methods for fast decision-support and production planning of RMS.
translated by 谷歌翻译
语义已成为遗传编程(GP)研究的关键话题。语义是指在数据集上运行时GP个体的输出(行为)。专注于单目标GP中语义多样性的大多数作品表明它在进化搜索方面是非常有益的。令人惊讶的是,在多目标GP(MOGP)中,在语义中进行了小型研究。在这项工作中,我们跨越我们对Mogp中语义的理解,提出SDO:基于语义的距离作为额外标准。这自然鼓励Mogp中的语义多样性。为此,我们在第一个帕累托前面的较密集的区域(最有前途的前沿)找到一个枢轴。然后,这用于计算枢轴与人群中的每个人之间的距离。然后将所得到的距离用作优化以优化以偏及语义分集的额外标准。我们还使用其他基于语义的方法作为基准,称为基于语义相似性的交叉和语义的拥挤距离。此外,我们也使用NSGA-II和SPEA2进行比较。我们使用高度不平衡二进制分类问题,一致地展示我们所提出的SDO方法如何产生更多非主导的解决方案和更好的多样性,导致更好的统计学显着的结果,与其他四种方法相比,使用超卓越症结果作为评估措施。
translated by 谷歌翻译
可持续消费旨在最大限度地减少使用服务和产品的环境和社会影响。服务和产品的过度消耗导致潜在的自然资源耗尽和社会不平等,因为对商品和服务的访问变得更具挑战性。在日常生活中,一个人可以通过大大改变他们的生活方式选择并可能违背其个人价值观或愿望来实现更可持续的购买。相反,实现可持续消费,同时考虑个人价值观是一个更复杂的任务,因为在努力满足环境和个人目标时出现潜在的权衡。本文重点介绍了推荐系统的价值敏感设计,使消费者能够在尊重其个人价值观的同时提高购物的可持续性。可持续消费的价值敏感建议被形式化为多目标优化问题,每个目标都代表不同的可持续性目标和个人价值。新颖和现有的多目标算法计算解决此问题的解决方案。该解决方案被提出为消费者的个性化可持续篮子建议。这些建议在合成数据集中进行了评估,其中包括来自相关科学和组织报告的三个建立的现实数据集。合成数据集包含有关产品价格,营养价值和环境影响指标的定量数据,例如温室气体排放和水占地面积。推荐的篮子与消费者购买的篮子高度相似,并与可持续发展目标和与健康,支出和品味相关的个人价值观对齐。即使消费者只接受一小部分建议,也观察到环境影响的相当大降低。
translated by 谷歌翻译
传感器节点(SNS)的部署总是在无线传感器网络(WSN)的系统性能中起决定性作用。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种实用异构WSN的最佳部署方法,该方法可以深入了解可靠性和部署成本之间的权衡。具体而言,这项工作旨在提供SNS的最佳部署,以最大程度地提高覆盖率和连接学位,同时最大程度地减少整体部署成本。此外,这项工作充分考虑了SNS的异质性(即差异化的传感范围和部署成本)和三维(3-D)部署方案。这是一个多目标优化问题,非凸,多模态和NP-HARD。为了解决它,我们开发了一种新型的基于群体的多目标优化算法,称为竞争性多目标海洋掠食者算法(CMOMPA),其性能通过与十种其他多个多目标优化的全面比较实验验证算法。计算结果表明,在收敛性和准确性方面,CMOMPA优于他人,并且在多模式多目标优化问题上表现出卓越的性能。还进行了足够的模拟来评估基于CMOMPA的最佳SNS部署方法的有效性。结果表明,优化的部署可以平衡部署成本,感知可靠性和网络可靠性之间的权衡平衡。源代码可在https://github.com/inet-wzu/cmompa上找到。
translated by 谷歌翻译
Explicitly accounting for uncertainties is paramount to the safety of engineering structures. Optimization which is often carried out at the early stage of the structural design offers an ideal framework for this task. When the uncertainties are mainly affecting the objective function, robust design optimization is traditionally considered. This work further assumes the existence of multiple and competing objective functions that need to be dealt with simultaneously. The optimization problem is formulated by considering quantiles of the objective functions which allows for the combination of both optimality and robustness in a single metric. By introducing the concept of common random numbers, the resulting nested optimization problem may be solved using a general-purpose solver, herein the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). The computational cost of such an approach is however a serious hurdle to its application in real-world problems. We therefore propose a surrogate-assisted approach using Kriging as an inexpensive approximation of the associated computational model. The proposed approach consists of sequentially carrying out NSGA-II while using an adaptively built Kriging model to estimate the quantiles. Finally, the methodology is adapted to account for mixed categorical-continuous parameters as the applications involve the selection of qualitative design parameters as well. The methodology is first applied to two analytical examples showing its efficiency. The third application relates to the selection of optimal renovation scenarios of a building considering both its life cycle cost and environmental impact. It shows that when it comes to renovation, the heating system replacement should be the priority.
translated by 谷歌翻译
本研究提出了一种新的框架,以发展有效又令人难以捉摸的神经架构,以便使用技术指标作为输入的股票市场指数的运动预测。根据高效的市场假设下的稀疏信噪比,开发机器学习方法预测金融市场的运动使用技术指标表明是一个具有挑战性的问题。为此,神经架构搜索被构成为多标准优化问题,以平衡施加的复杂性的功效。此外,还调查了可能存在于预科内的不同优势交易趋势的影响,并进行了内部内部延期。 AN $ \ epsilon- $约束框架被提出作为提取可能相互冲突的预科数据潜在的任何一致信息的补救措施。此外,为多标准神经结构搜索提出了一种新的搜索范例,二维群(2ds),其将稀疏性显式集成为粒子群中的额外搜索维度。通过考虑遗传算法和具有基于滤光片的特征选择方法(MRMR)作为基线方法,通过考虑遗传算法和经验神经设计规则的几种组合来进行所述方法的详细比较评估。这项研究的结果令人信服地证明了所提出的方法可以通过更好的泛化能力发展扩大的网络。
translated by 谷歌翻译
The NSGA-II is one of the most prominent algorithms to solve multi-objective optimization problems. Despite numerous successful applications, several studies have shown that the NSGA-II is less effective for larger numbers of objectives. In this work, we use mathematical runtime analyses to rigorously demonstrate and quantify this phenomenon. We show that even on the simple OneMinMax benchmark, where every solution is Pareto optimal, the NSGA-II also with large population sizes cannot compute the full Pareto front (objective vectors of all Pareto optima) in sub-exponential time when the number of objectives is at least three. Our proofs suggest that the reason for this unexpected behavior lies in the fact that in the computation of the crowding distance, the different objectives are regarded independently. This is not a problem for two objectives, where any sorting of a pair-wise incomparable set of solutions according to one objective is also such a sorting according to the other objective (in the inverse order).
translated by 谷歌翻译
Multi-objective feature selection is one of the most significant issues in the field of pattern recognition. It is challenging because it maximizes the classification performance and, at the same time, minimizes the number of selected features, and the mentioned two objectives are usually conflicting. To achieve a better Pareto optimal solution, metaheuristic optimization methods are widely used in many studies. However, the main drawback is the exploration of a large search space. Another problem with multi-objective feature selection approaches is the interaction between features. Selecting correlated features has negative effect on classification performance. To tackle these problems, we present a novel multi-objective feature selection method that has several advantages. Firstly, it considers the interaction between features using an advanced probability scheme. Secondly, it is based on the Pareto Archived Evolution Strategy (PAES) method that has several advantages such as simplicity and its speed in exploring the solution space. However, we improve the structure of PAES in such a way that generates the offsprings, intelligently. Thus, the proposed method utilizes the introduced probability scheme to produce more promising offsprings. Finally, it is equipped with a novel strategy that guides it to find the optimum number of features through the process of evolution. The experimental results show a significant improvement in finding the optimal Pareto front compared to state-of-the-art methods on different real-world datasets.
translated by 谷歌翻译
Currently, there are no convincing proxies for the fundamentals of cryptocurrency assets. We propose a new market-to-fundamental ratio, the price-to-utility (PU) ratio, utilizing unique blockchain accounting methods. We then proxy various fundamental-to-market ratios by Bitcoin historical data and find they have little predictive power for short-term bitcoin returns. However, PU ratio effectively predicts long-term bitcoin returns. We verify PU ratio valuation by unsupervised and supervised machine learning. The valuation method informs investment returns and predicts bull markets effectively. Finally, we present an automated trading strategy advised by the PU ratio that outperforms the conventional buy-and-hold and market-timing strategies. We distribute the trading algorithms as open-source software via Python Package Index for future research.
translated by 谷歌翻译
动量策略是替代投资的重要组成部分,是商品交易顾问(CTA)的核心。然而,这些策略已被发现难以调整市场条件的快速变化,例如在2020年市场崩溃期间。特别是,在动量转向点之后,在趋势从上升趋势(下降趋势)逆转到下降趋势(上升趋势),时间序列动量(TSMOM)策略容易发生不良赌注。为了提高对政权变更的响应,我们介绍了一种新颖的方法,在那里我们将在线切换点检测(CPD)模块插入深势网络(DMN)[1904.04912]管道,它使用LSTM深度学习架构同时学习趋势估算与定位尺寸。此外,我们的模型能够优化它的平衡1)延迟延期的速度策略,它利用持续趋势,但没有过度反应到本地化价格移动,而且2)通过快速翻转其位置,这是一种快速平均转换策略制度,然后再次将其交换为利用本地化的价格。我们的CPD模块输出ChangePoint位置和严重性分数,允许我们的模型以数据驱动的方式学习响应变化的不平衡或更小,更局部化的变换点。在1995 - 2020年期间,在1995 - 2020年期间,添加CPD模块的添加导致夏普率的提高三分之一。该模块在显着的非间抗性期间特别有益,特别是在最近几年(2015-2020)中,性能提升大约三分之二。随着传统的动量策略在此期间的表现不佳,这很有趣。
translated by 谷歌翻译
超参数优化构成了典型的现代机器学习工作流程的很大一部分。这是由于这样一个事实,即机器学习方法和相应的预处理步骤通常只有在正确调整超参数时就会产生最佳性能。但是在许多应用中,我们不仅有兴趣仅仅为了预测精度而优化ML管道;确定最佳配置时,必须考虑其他指标或约束,从而导致多目标优化问题。由于缺乏知识和用于多目标超参数优化的知识和容易获得的软件实现,因此通常在实践中被忽略。在这项工作中,我们向读者介绍了多个客观超参数优化的基础知识,并激励其在应用ML中的实用性。此外,我们从进化算法和贝叶斯优化的领域提供了现有优化策略的广泛调查。我们说明了MOO在几个特定ML应用中的实用性,考虑了诸如操作条件,预测时间,稀疏,公平,可解释性和鲁棒性之类的目标。
translated by 谷歌翻译
HyperParameter Optimization(HPO)是一种确保机器学习(ML)算法最佳性能的必要步骤。已经开发了几种方法来执行HPO;其中大部分都集中在优化一个性能措施(通常是基于错误的措施),并且在这种单一目标HPO问题上的文献是巨大的。然而,最近似乎似乎侧重于同时优化多个冲突目标的算法。本文提出了对2014年至2020年的文献的系统调查,在多目标HPO算法上发布,区分了基于成逐的算法,Metamodel的算法以及使用两者混合的方法。我们还讨论了用于比较多目标HPO程序和今后的研究方向的质量指标。
translated by 谷歌翻译
我们对两个单目标和两个多目标的全局全局优化算法进行了全面的全局灵敏度分析,作为算法配置问题。也就是说,我们研究了超参数对算法的直接效果和与其他超参数的效果的影响的影响质量。使用三种敏感性分析方法Morris LHS,Morris和Sobol,可以系统地分析协方差矩阵适应进化策略,差异进化,非主导的遗传算法III和多目标进化算法的可调型矩阵适应性进化策略,基于框架的分解,基于框架揭示,基于框架的遗传算法,超参数对抽样方法和性能指标的行为。也就是说,它回答了等问题,例如什么超参数会影响模式,它们的互动方式,相互作用的互动程度以及其直接影响程度。因此,超参数的排名表明它们的调整顺序,影响模式揭示了算法的稳定性。
translated by 谷歌翻译
自由形式变形模型可以通过在图像上操纵控制点晶格来代表广泛的非刚性变形。但是,由于大量参数,由于适应性景观的复杂性,将自由形式变形模型直接拟合到变形图像以进行变形估计是一项挑战。在本文中,我们根据每个控制点影响的区域相互重叠的事实,将注册任务作为多目标优化问题(MOP)。具体而言,通过将模板图像划分为几个区域并独立测量每个区域的相似性,可以通过使用现成的多目标进化算法(MOEAS)来解决多个目标,并可以通过解决拖把来实现变形估计。此外,图像金字塔与控制点网格细分结合使用了粗到五个策略。具体而言,当前图像级别的优化候选解决方案是由下一个级别继承的,这增加了处理大变形的能力。此外,提出了一个后处理过程,以利用帕累托最佳解决方案生成单个输出。对合成图像和现实世界图像的比较实验显示了我们变形估计方法的有效性和实用性。
translated by 谷歌翻译
强化学习(RL)技术在许多具有挑战性的定量交易任务(例如投资组合管理和算法交易)中取得了巨大的成功。尤其是,由于金融市场的盘中行为反映了数十亿个快速波动的首都,所以盘中交易是最有利可图和风险的任务之一。但是,绝大多数现有的RL方法都集中在相对较低的频率交易方案(例如日级),并且由于两个主要挑战而无法捕获短暂的盘中投资机会:1)如何有效地培训额外的RL额外的RL代理,以供日盘培训。投资决策,涉及高维良好的动作空间; 2)如何学习有意义的多模式市场表示,以了解tick级金融市场的盘中行为。在专业人类盘中交易者的有效工作流程中,我们提出了DeepScalper,这是一个深入的加强学习框架,用于解决上述挑战。具体而言,DeepScalper包括四个组成部分:1)针对行动分支的决斗Q-Network,以应对日内交易的大型动作空间,以进行有效的RL优化; 2)带有事后奖励的新型奖励功能,以鼓励RL代理商在整个交易日的长期范围内做出交易决策; 3)一个编码器架构架构,用于学习多模式的临时市场嵌入,其中既包含宏观级别和微型市场信息; 4)在最大化利润和最小化风险之间保持惊人平衡的风险意识辅助任务。通过对六个金融期货的三年来真实世界数据的广泛实验,我们证明,在四个财务标准方面,DeepScalper显着优于许多最先进的基线。
translated by 谷歌翻译