急诊科(EDS)的表现对于任何医疗保健系统都非常重要,因为它们是许多患者的入口处。但是,除其他因素外,患者敏锐度水平和访问患者的相应治疗要求的变异性对决策者构成了重大挑战。平衡患者的等待时间首先是由医生与所有敏锐度水平的总长度相处的,对于维持所有患者的可接受的操作表现至关重要。为了解决这些要求在为患者分配空闲资源时,过去提出了几种方法,包括累积的优先排队(APQ)方法。 APQ方法在系统和敏锐度水平方面将优先评分线性分配给患者。因此,选择决策基于一个简单的系统表示,该表示作为选择功能的输入。本文研究了基于机器学习(ML)的患者选择方法的潜力。它假设对于大量的培训数据,包括多种不同的系统状态,(接近)最佳分配可以通过(启发式)优化器计算出关于所选的性能指标,并旨在模仿此类最佳行为。应用于新情况。因此,它结合了系统的全面状态表示和复杂的非线性选择函数。拟议方法的动机是,高质量的选择决策可能取决于描述ED当前状态的各种因素,而不仅限于等待时间,而这些因素可以由ML模型捕获和利用。结果表明,所提出的方法显着优于大多数评估设置的APQ方法
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算法配置(AC)与对参数化算法最合适的参数配置的自动搜索有关。目前,文献中提出了各种各样的交流问题变体和方法。现有评论没有考虑到AC问题的所有衍生物,也没有提供完整的分类计划。为此,我们引入分类法以分别描述配置方法的交流问题和特征。我们回顾了分类法的镜头中现有的AC文献,概述相关的配置方法的设计选择,对比方法和问题变体相互对立,并描述行业中的AC状态。最后,我们的评论为研究人员和从业人员提供了AC领域的未来研究方向。
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蒙特卡洛树搜索(MCT)是设计游戏机器人或解决顺序决策问题的强大方法。该方法依赖于平衡探索和开发的智能树搜索。MCT以模拟的形式进行随机抽样,并存储动作的统计数据,以在每个随后的迭代中做出更有教育的选择。然而,该方法已成为组合游戏的最新技术,但是,在更复杂的游戏(例如那些具有较高的分支因素或实时系列的游戏)以及各种实用领域(例如,运输,日程安排或安全性)有效的MCT应用程序通常需要其与问题有关的修改或与其他技术集成。这种特定领域的修改和混合方法是本调查的主要重点。最后一项主要的MCT调查已于2012年发布。自发布以来出现的贡献特别感兴趣。
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Algorithms that involve both forecasting and optimization are at the core of solutions to many difficult real-world problems, such as in supply chains (inventory optimization), traffic, and in the transition towards carbon-free energy generation in battery/load/production scheduling in sustainable energy systems. Typically, in these scenarios we want to solve an optimization problem that depends on unknown future values, which therefore need to be forecast. As both forecasting and optimization are difficult problems in their own right, relatively few research has been done in this area. This paper presents the findings of the ``IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling," held in 2021. We present a comparison and evaluation of the seven highest-ranked solutions in the competition, to provide researchers with a benchmark problem and to establish the state of the art for this benchmark, with the aim to foster and facilitate research in this area. The competition used data from the Monash Microgrid, as well as weather data and energy market data. It then focused on two main challenges: forecasting renewable energy production and demand, and obtaining an optimal schedule for the activities (lectures) and on-site batteries that lead to the lowest cost of energy. The most accurate forecasts were obtained by gradient-boosted tree and random forest models, and optimization was mostly performed using mixed integer linear and quadratic programming. The winning method predicted different scenarios and optimized over all scenarios jointly using a sample average approximation method.
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Using data from cardiovascular surgery patients with long and highly variable post-surgical lengths of stay (LOS), we develop a modeling framework to reduce recovery unit congestion. We estimate the LOS and its probability distribution using machine learning models, schedule procedures on a rolling basis using a variety of optimization models, and estimate performance with simulation. The machine learning models achieved only modest LOS prediction accuracy, despite access to a very rich set of patient characteristics. Compared to the current paper-based system used in the hospital, most optimization models failed to reduce congestion without increasing wait times for surgery. A conservative stochastic optimization with sufficient sampling to capture the long tail of the LOS distribution outperformed the current manual process and other stochastic and robust optimization approaches. These results highlight the perils of using oversimplified distributional models of LOS for scheduling procedures and the importance of using optimization methods well-suited to dealing with long-tailed behavior.
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患者调度是一项艰巨的任务,因为它涉及处理随机因素,例如患者未知的到达流动。调度癌症患者的放射治疗治疗面临着类似的问题。治疗患者需要在推荐的最后期限内开始治疗,即入院后14或28天,而在入院后1至3天内需要迫切治疗的姑息治疗的治疗能力。大多数癌症中心通过保留用于急诊患者的固定数量的治疗槽来解决问题。然而,这种平面预留方法并不理想,并且可能在某些日子里造成急诊患者的过期治疗,同时在其他几天内没有充分利用治疗能力,这也导致治疗患者的延迟治疗。这个问题在大型和拥挤的医院中特别严重。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于预测的在线动态放射治疗调度方法。一个离线问题,其中提前已知所有未来的患者到达,以使用整数编程来解决。然后培训回归模型以识别患者到达模式之间的链接及其理想的等待时间。然后,培训的回归模型以基于预测的方法嵌入,该方法根据其特征和日历的当前状态来调度患者。数值结果表明,我们的预测方法有效地防止了应急患者的过度处理,同时与基于平面预留政策的其他调度方法相比保持良好的等待时间。
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大多数机器学习算法由一个或多个超参数配置,必须仔细选择并且通常会影响性能。为避免耗时和不可递销的手动试验和错误过程来查找性能良好的超参数配置,可以采用各种自动超参数优化(HPO)方法,例如,基于监督机器学习的重新采样误差估计。本文介绍了HPO后,本文审查了重要的HPO方法,如网格或随机搜索,进化算法,贝叶斯优化,超带和赛车。它给出了关于进行HPO的重要选择的实用建议,包括HPO算法本身,性能评估,如何将HPO与ML管道,运行时改进和并行化结合起来。这项工作伴随着附录,其中包含关于R和Python的特定软件包的信息,以及用于特定学习算法的信息和推荐的超参数搜索空间。我们还提供笔记本电脑,这些笔记本展示了这项工作的概念作为补充文件。
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在过去的几十年中,经典的车辆路由问题(VRP),即为车辆分配一组订单并规划他们的路线已经被密集研究。仅作为车辆的订单分配和他们的路线已经是一个NP完整的问题,因此在实践中的应用通常无法考虑在现实世界应用中应用的约束和限制,所谓的富VRP所谓的富VRP(RVRP)并且仅限于单一方面。在这项工作中,我们融入了主要的相关真实限制和要求。我们提出了一种两级策略和时间线窗口和暂停时间的时间线算法,并将遗传算法(GA)和蚁群优化(ACO)单独应用于问题以找到最佳解决方案。我们对四种不同问题实例的评估,针对四个最先进的算法表明,我们的方法在合理的时间内处理所有给定的约束。
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近年来,在平衡(超级)图分配算法的设计和评估中取得了重大进展。我们调查了过去十年的实用算法的趋势,用于平衡(超级)图形分区以及未来的研究方向。我们的工作是对先前有关该主题的调查的更新。特别是,该调查还通过涵盖了超图形分区和流算法来扩展先前的调查,并额外关注并行算法。
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There is significant interest in deploying machine learning algorithms for diagnostic radiology, as modern learning techniques have made it possible to detect abnormalities in medical images within minutes. While machine-assisted diagnoses cannot yet reliably replace human reviews of images by a radiologist, they could inform prioritization rules for determining the order by which to review patient cases so that patients with time-sensitive conditions could benefit from early intervention. We study this scenario by formulating it as a learning-augmented online scheduling problem. We are given information about each arriving patient's urgency level in advance, but these predictions are inevitably error-prone. In this formulation, we face the challenges of decision making under imperfect information, and of responding dynamically to prediction error as we observe better data in real-time. We propose a simple online policy and show that this policy is in fact the best possible in certain stylized settings. We also demonstrate that our policy achieves the two desiderata of online algorithms with predictions: consistency (performance improvement with prediction accuracy) and robustness (protection against the worst case). We complement our theoretical findings with empirical evaluations of the policy under settings that more accurately reflect clinical scenarios in the real world.
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源于机器学习和优化的临床决策支持工具可以为医疗保健提供者提供显着的价值,包括通过更好地管理重症监护单位。特别是,重要的是,患者排放任务在降低患者的住宿时间(以及相关住院费用)和放弃决策后的入院甚至死亡的风险之间存在对细微的折衷。这项工作介绍了一个端到端的一般框架,用于捕获这种权衡,以推荐患者电子健康记录的最佳放电计时决策。数据驱动方法用于导出捕获患者的生理条件的解析,离散状态空间表示。基于该模型和给定的成本函数,在数值上制定并解决了无限的地平线折扣明马尔科夫决策过程,以计算最佳的排放政策,其价值使用违规评估策略进行评估。进行广泛的数值实验以使用现实生活重症监护单元患者数据来验证所提出的框架。
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Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a recently proposed search method that combines the precision of tree search with the generality of random sampling. It has received considerable interest due to its spectacular success in the difficult problem of computer Go, but has also proved beneficial in a range of other domains. This paper is a survey of the literature to date, intended to provide a snapshot of the state of the art after the first five years of MCTS research. We outline the core algorithm's derivation, impart some structure on the many variations and enhancements that have been proposed, and summarise the results from the key game and non-game domains to which MCTS methods have been applied. A number of open research questions indicate that the field is ripe for future work.
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我们研究了在国内捐助服务服务中引起的车辆路由问题的随机变体。我们考虑的问题结合了以下属性。就客户是随机的,但不仅限于预定义的集合,因此请求服务的客户是可变的,因为它们可能出现在给定的服务领域的任何地方。此外,需求量是随机的,并且在拜访客户时会观察到。目的是在满足车辆能力和时间限制的同时最大化预期的服务需求。我们将此问题称为VRP,具有高度可变的客户基础和随机需求(VRP-VCSD)。对于这个问题,我们首先提出了马尔可夫决策过程(MDP)的配方,该制定代表了一位决策者建立所有车辆路线的经典集中决策观点。虽然结果配方却很棘手,但它为我们提供了开发新的MDP公式的地面,我们称其为部分分散。在此公式中,动作空间被车辆分解。但是,由于我们执行相同的车辆特定政策,同时优化集体奖励,因此权力下放是不完整的。我们提出了几种策略,以减少与部分分散的配方相关的国家和行动空间的维度。这些产生了一个更容易解决的问题,我们通过加强学习来解决。特别是,我们开发了一种称为DECQN的Q学习算法,具有最先进的加速技术。我们进行了彻底的计算分析。结果表明,DECN的表现大大优于三个基准策略。此外,我们表明我们的方法可以与针对VRP-VCSD的特定情况开发的专业方法竞争,在该情况下,客户位置和预期需求是事先知道的。
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Patient triage at emergency departments (EDs) is necessary to prioritize care for patients with critical and time-sensitive conditions. Different tools are used for patient triage and one of the most common ones is the emergency severity index (ESI), which has a scale of five levels, where level 1 is the most urgent and level 5 is the least urgent. This paper proposes a framework for utilizing machine learning to develop an e-triage tool that can be used at EDs. A large retrospective dataset of ED patient visits is obtained from the electronic health record of a healthcare provider in the Midwest of the US for three years. However, the main challenge of using machine learning algorithms is that most of them have many parameters and without optimizing these parameters, developing a high-performance model is not possible. This paper proposes an approach to optimize the hyperparameters of machine learning. The metaheuristic optimization algorithms simulated annealing (SA) and adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) are proposed to optimize the parameters of extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and categorical boosting (CaB). The newly proposed algorithms are SA-XGB, ASA-XGB, SA-CaB, ASA-CaB. Grid search (GS), which is a traditional approach used for machine learning fine-tunning is also used to fine-tune the parameters of XGB and CaB, which are named GS-XGB and GS-CaB. The six algorithms are trained and tested using eight data groups obtained from the feature selection phase. The results show ASA-CaB outperformed all the proposed algorithms with accuracy, precision, recall, and f1 of 83.3%, 83.2%, 83.3%, 83.2%, respectively.
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Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a well-established paradigm for simulating complex systems via interactions between constituent entities. Machine learning (ML) refers to approaches whereby statistical algorithms 'learn' from data on their own, without imposing a priori theories of system behavior. Biological systems -- from molecules, to cells, to entire organisms -- consist of vast numbers of entities, governed by complex webs of interactions that span many spatiotemporal scales and exhibit nonlinearity, stochasticity and intricate coupling between entities. The macroscopic properties and collective dynamics of such systems are difficult to capture via continuum modelling and mean-field formalisms. ABM takes a 'bottom-up' approach that obviates these difficulties by enabling one to easily propose and test a set of well-defined 'rules' to be applied to the individual entities (agents) in a system. Evaluating a system and propagating its state over discrete time-steps effectively simulates the system, allowing observables to be computed and system properties to be analyzed. Because the rules that govern an ABM can be difficult to abstract and formulate from experimental data, there is an opportunity to use ML to help infer optimal, system-specific ABM rules. Once such rule-sets are devised, ABM calculations can generate a wealth of data, and ML can be applied there too -- e.g., to probe statistical measures that meaningfully describe a system's stochastic properties. As an example of synergy in the other direction (from ABM to ML), ABM simulations can generate realistic datasets for training ML algorithms (e.g., for regularization, to mitigate overfitting). In these ways, one can envision various synergistic ABM$\rightleftharpoons$ML loops. This review summarizes how ABM and ML have been integrated in contexts that span spatiotemporal scales, from cellular to population-level epidemiology.
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This paper surveys the recent attempts, both from the machine learning and operations research communities, at leveraging machine learning to solve combinatorial optimization problems. Given the hard nature of these problems, state-of-the-art algorithms rely on handcrafted heuristics for making decisions that are otherwise too expensive to compute or mathematically not well defined. Thus, machine learning looks like a natural candidate to make such decisions in a more principled and optimized way. We advocate for pushing further the integration of machine learning and combinatorial optimization and detail a methodology to do so. A main point of the paper is seeing generic optimization problems as data points and inquiring what is the relevant distribution of problems to use for learning on a given task.
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组合优化是运营研究和计算机科学领域的一个公认领域。直到最近,它的方法一直集中在孤立地解决问题实例,而忽略了它们通常源于实践中的相关数据分布。但是,近年来,人们对使用机器学习,尤其是图形神经网络(GNN)的兴趣激增,作为组合任务的关键构件,直接作为求解器或通过增强确切的求解器。GNN的电感偏差有效地编码了组合和关系输入,因为它们对排列和对输入稀疏性的意识的不变性。本文介绍了对这个新兴领域的最新主要进步的概念回顾,旨在优化和机器学习研究人员。
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无论是在功能选择的领域还是可解释的AI领域,都有基于其重要性的“排名”功能的愿望。然后可以将这种功能重要的排名用于:(1)减少数据集大小或(2)解释机器学习模型。但是,在文献中,这种特征排名没有以系统的,一致的方式评估。许多论文都有不同的方式来争论哪些具有重要性排名最佳的特征。本文通过提出一种新的评估方法来填补这一空白。通过使用合成数据集,可以事先知道特征重要性得分,从而可以进行更系统的评估。为了促进使用新方法的大规模实验,在Python建造了一个名为FSEVAL的基准测定框架。该框架允许并行运行实验,并在HPC系统上的计算机上分布。通过与名为“权重和偏见”的在线平台集成,可以在实时仪表板上进行交互探索图表。该软件作为开源软件发布,并在PYPI平台上以包裹发行。该研究结束时,探索了一个这样的大规模实验,以在许多方面找到参与算法的优势和劣势。
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The following article presents a memetic algorithm with applying deep reinforcement learning (DRL) for solving practically oriented dual resource constrained flexible job shop scheduling problems (DRC-FJSSP). In recent years, there has been extensive research on DRL techniques, but without considering realistic, flexible and human-centered shopfloors. A research gap can be identified in the context of make-to-order oriented discontinuous manufacturing as it is often represented in medium-size companies with high service levels. From practical industry projects in this domain, we recognize requirements to depict flexible machines, human workers and capabilities, setup and processing operations, material arrival times, complex job paths with parallel tasks for bill of material (BOM) manufacturing, sequence-depended setup times and (partially) automated tasks. On the other hand, intensive research has been done on metaheuristics in the context of DRC-FJSSP. However, there is a lack of suitable and generic scheduling methods that can be holistically applied in sociotechnical production and assembly processes. In this paper, we first formulate an extended DRC-FJSSP induced by the practical requirements mentioned. Then we present our proposed hybrid framework with parallel computing for multicriteria optimization. Through numerical experiments with real-world data, we confirm that the framework generates feasible schedules efficiently and reliably. Utilizing DRL instead of random operations leads to better results and outperforms traditional approaches.
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The issue of left before treatment complete (LBTC) patients is common in emergency departments (EDs). This issue represents a medico-legal risk and may cause a revenue loss. Thus, understanding the factors that cause patients to leave before treatment is complete is vital to mitigate and potentially eliminate these adverse effects. This paper proposes a framework for studying the factors that affect LBTC outcomes in EDs. The framework integrates machine learning, metaheuristic optimization, and model interpretation techniques. Metaheuristic optimization is used for hyperparameter optimization--one of the main challenges of machine learning model development. Three metaheuristic optimization algorithms are employed for optimizing the parameters of extreme gradient boosting (XGB), which are simulated annealing (SA), adaptive simulated annealing (ASA), and adaptive tabu simulated annealing (ATSA). The optimized XGB models are used to predict the LBTC outcomes for the patients under treatment in ED. The designed algorithms are trained and tested using four data groups resulting from the feature selection phase. The model with the best predictive performance is interpreted using SHaply Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The findings show that ATSA-XGB outperformed other mode configurations with an accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score of 86.61%, 87.50%, 85.71%, 87.51%, and 86.60%, respectively. The degree and the direction of effects of each feature were determined and explained using the SHAP method.
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