团队是人类成就的核心。在过去的半个世纪中,心理学家已经确定了五个跨文化有效的人格变量:神经质,外向性,开放性,尽职尽责和同意。前四个与团队绩效显示一致的关系。然而,令人愉快的(和谐,无私,谦虚和合作)表现出与团队绩效的无关紧要和高度可变的关系。我们通过计算建模解决这种不一致。基于代理的模型(ABM)用于预测人格特质对团队合作的影响,然后使用遗传算法来探索ABM的限制,以发现哪种特征与最佳和最差的表现相关,以解决与与最差的团队相关的问题,以解决与问题有关的问题。不同级别的不确定性(噪声)。探索所揭示的新依赖性通过分析迄今为止最大的团队绩效数据集的先前未观察到的数据来证实,其中包括593个团队中的3,698个个人,从事5,000多个没有不确定性的小组任务,在10年内收集了不确定性。我们的发现是,团队绩效和同意之间的依赖性受到任务不确定性的调节。以这种方式将进化计算与ABM相结合,为团队合作的科学研究,做出新的预测以及提高我们对人类行为的理解提供了一种新方法。我们的结果证实了计算机建模对发展理论的潜在实用性,并阐明了随着工作环境的越来越流畅和不确定的启示。
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Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a well-established paradigm for simulating complex systems via interactions between constituent entities. Machine learning (ML) refers to approaches whereby statistical algorithms 'learn' from data on their own, without imposing a priori theories of system behavior. Biological systems -- from molecules, to cells, to entire organisms -- consist of vast numbers of entities, governed by complex webs of interactions that span many spatiotemporal scales and exhibit nonlinearity, stochasticity and intricate coupling between entities. The macroscopic properties and collective dynamics of such systems are difficult to capture via continuum modelling and mean-field formalisms. ABM takes a 'bottom-up' approach that obviates these difficulties by enabling one to easily propose and test a set of well-defined 'rules' to be applied to the individual entities (agents) in a system. Evaluating a system and propagating its state over discrete time-steps effectively simulates the system, allowing observables to be computed and system properties to be analyzed. Because the rules that govern an ABM can be difficult to abstract and formulate from experimental data, there is an opportunity to use ML to help infer optimal, system-specific ABM rules. Once such rule-sets are devised, ABM calculations can generate a wealth of data, and ML can be applied there too -- e.g., to probe statistical measures that meaningfully describe a system's stochastic properties. As an example of synergy in the other direction (from ABM to ML), ABM simulations can generate realistic datasets for training ML algorithms (e.g., for regularization, to mitigate overfitting). In these ways, one can envision various synergistic ABM$\rightleftharpoons$ML loops. This review summarizes how ABM and ML have been integrated in contexts that span spatiotemporal scales, from cellular to population-level epidemiology.
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4月20日至22日,在马德里(西班牙)举行的EVO* 2022会议上提交了末期摘要。这些论文介绍了正在进行的研究和初步结果,这些结果研究了对不同问题的不同方法(主要是进化计算)的应用,其中大多数是现实世界中的方法。
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2021年8月,圣达菲研究所举办了一个关于集体智力的研讨会,是智力项目基础的一部分。该项目旨在通过促进智能性质的跨学科研究来推进人工智能领域。该研讨会汇集了计算机科学家,生物学家,哲学家,社会科学家和其他人,以分享他们对多种代理人之间的互动产生的洞察力的见解 - 是否这些代理商是机器,动物或人类。在本报告中,我们总结了每个会谈和随后的讨论。我们还借出了许多关键主题,并确定未来研究的重要前沿。
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There has been a recent resurgence in the area of explainable artificial intelligence as researchers and practitioners seek to make their algorithms more understandable. Much of this research is focused on explicitly explaining decisions or actions to a human observer, and it should not be controversial to say that looking at how humans explain to each other can serve as a useful starting point for explanation in artificial intelligence. However, it is fair to say that most work in explainable artificial intelligence uses only the researchers' intuition of what constitutes a 'good' explanation. There exists vast and valuable bodies of research in philosophy, psychology, and cognitive science of how people define, generate, select, evaluate, and present explanations, which argues that people employ certain cognitive biases and social expectations towards the explanation process. This paper argues that the field of explainable artificial intelligence should build on this existing research, and reviews relevant papers from philosophy, cognitive psychology/science, and social psychology, which study these topics. It draws out some important findings, and discusses ways that these can be infused with work on explainable artificial intelligence.
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为了协助游戏开发人员制作游戏NPC,我们展示了EvolvingBehavior,这是一种新颖的工具,用于基因编程,以在不真实的引擎4中发展行为树4.在初步评估中,我们将演变的行为与我们的研究人员设计的手工制作的树木和随机的树木进行了比较 - 在3D生存游戏中种植的树木。我们发现,在这种情况下,EvolvingBehavior能够产生行为,以实现设计师的目标。最后,我们讨论了共同创造游戏AI设计工具的探索的含义和未来途径,以及行为树进化的挑战和困难。
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目的该研究的目的是开展对意大利物流枢纽的物料搬运活动的探索性调查。可穿戴传感器和其他智能工具用于在工作活动期间收集人类和环境特征。这些因素与工人的表现和福祉相关。设计/方法/方法人类和环境因素在运营管理活动中发挥着重要作用,因为它们显着影响了员工的绩效,福祉和安全性。令人惊讶的是,关于这些方面对物流业务影响的实证研究仍然非常有限。试图填补这一差距,经验探讨了影响智能工具的物流工作人员表现的人类和环境因素。结果结果表明,人类态度,相互作用,情绪和环境条件显着影响了工人的表现和福祉,这取决于每个工人的个体特征。实际含义作者的研究开辟了梳理员工的新途径,采用个性化的人力资源管理,为管理人员提供有能力检查和改善工人福祉和表现的运营体系。原创性/价值研究的原创性来自在工作活动期间使用身体磨损的传感器的人类和环境因素的深入探索,通过实时记录个人,协作和环境数据。据作者所知,目前的论文是第一次在真实的物流业务中进行了如此详细的分析。
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情绪分析中最突出的任务是为文本分配情绪,并了解情绪如何在语言中表现出来。自然语言处理的一个重要观察结果是,即使没有明确提及情感名称,也可以通过单独参考事件来隐式传达情绪。在心理学中,被称为评估理论的情感理论类别旨在解释事件与情感之间的联系。评估可以被形式化为变量,通过他们认为相关的事件的人们的认知评估来衡量认知评估。其中包括评估事件是否是新颖的,如果该人认为自己负责,是否与自己的目标以及许多其他人保持一致。这样的评估解释了哪些情绪是基于事件开发的,例如,新颖的情况会引起惊喜或不确定后果的人可能引起恐惧。我们在文本中分析了评估理论对情绪分析的适用性,目的是理解注释者是否可以可靠地重建评估概念,如果可以通过文本分类器预测,以及评估概念是否有助于识别情感类别。为了实现这一目标,我们通过要求人们发短信描述触发特定情绪并披露其评估的事件来编译语料库。然后,我们要求读者重建文本中的情感和评估。这种设置使我们能够衡量是否可以纯粹从文本中恢复情绪和评估,并为判断模型的绩效指标提供人体基准。我们将文本分类方法与人类注释者的比较表明,两者都可以可靠地检测出具有相似性能的情绪和评估。我们进一步表明,评估概念改善了文本中情绪的分类。
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Social insects such as ants communicate via pheromones which allows them to coordinate their activity and solve complex tasks as a swarm, e.g. foraging for food. This behaviour was shaped through evolutionary processes. In computational models, self-coordination in swarms has been implemented using probabilistic or action rules to shape the decision of each agent and the collective behaviour. However, manual tuned decision rules may limit the behaviour of the swarm. In this work we investigate the emergence of self-coordination and communication in evolved swarms without defining any rule. We evolve a swarm of agents representing an ant colony. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize a spiking neural network (SNN) which serves as an artificial brain to control the behaviour of each agent. The goal of the colony is to find optimal ways to forage for food in the shortest amount of time. In the evolutionary phase, the ants are able to learn to collaborate by depositing pheromone near food piles and near the nest to guide its cohorts. The pheromone usage is not encoded into the network; instead, this behaviour is established through the optimization procedure. We observe that pheromone-based communication enables the ants to perform better in comparison to colonies where communication did not emerge. We assess the foraging performance by comparing the SNN based model to a rule based system. Our results show that the SNN based model can complete the foraging task more efficiently in a shorter time. Our approach illustrates that even in the absence of pre-defined rules, self coordination via pheromone emerges as a result of the network optimization. This work serves as a proof of concept for the possibility of creating complex applications utilizing SNNs as underlying architectures for multi-agent interactions where communication and self-coordination is desired.
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全球综合合作对于限制全球温度的升高至关重要,同时继续经济发展,例如减少严重的不平等或实现长期经济增长。与N战略代理进行缓解气候变化的长期合作提出了一个复杂的游戏理论问题。例如,代理商可以谈判并达成气候协议,但是没有中央权力可以执行遵守这些协议。因此,设计谈判和协议框架以促进合作,允许所有代理人达到其个人政策目标并激励长期遵守,这一点至关重要。这是一个跨学科的挑战,要求在机器学习,经济学,气候科学,法律,政策,道德和其他领域进行研究人员之间的合作。特别是,我们认为机器学习是解决该领域复杂性的关键工具。为了促进这项研究,在这里,我们介绍了一个多区域综合评估模型,模拟全球气候和经济,可用于设计和评估不同谈判和协议框架的战略成果。我们还描述了如何使用多代理增强学习来使用水稻N训练理性剂。该框架是全球气候合作的基础,这是一个工作组协作和气候谈判和协议设计的竞争。在这里,我们邀请科学界使用Rice-N,机器学习,经济直觉和其他领域知识来设计和评估其解决方案。更多信息可以在www.ai4climatecoop.org上找到。
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COVID-19的大流行提出了对多个领域决策者的流行预测的重要性,从公共卫生到整个经济。虽然预测流行进展经常被概念化为类似于天气预测,但是它具有一些关键的差异,并且仍然是一项非平凡的任务。疾病的传播受到人类行为,病原体动态,天气和环境条件的多种混杂因素的影响。由于政府公共卫生和资助机构的倡议,捕获以前无法观察到的方面的丰富数据来源的可用性增加了研究的兴趣。这尤其是在“以数据为中心”的解决方案上进行的一系列工作,这些解决方案通过利用非传统数据源以及AI和机器学习的最新创新来增强我们的预测能力的潜力。这项调查研究了各种数据驱动的方法论和实践进步,并介绍了一个概念框架来导航它们。首先,我们列举了与流行病预测相关的大量流行病学数据集和新的数据流,捕获了各种因素,例如有症状的在线调查,零售和商业,流动性,基因组学数据等。接下来,我们将讨论关注最近基于数据驱动的统计和深度学习方法的方法和建模范式,以及将机械模型知识域知识与统计方法的有效性和灵活性相结合的新型混合模型类别。我们还讨论了这些预测系统的现实部署中出现的经验和挑战,包括预测信息。最后,我们重点介绍了整个预测管道中发现的一些挑战和开放问题。
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聚类算法的全面基准是困难的两个关键因素:(i)〜这种无监督的学习方法的独特数学定义和(ii)〜某些聚类算法采用的生成模型或群集标准之间的依赖性的依赖性内部集群验证。因此,对严格基准测试的最佳做法没有达成共识,以及是否有可能在给定申请的背景之外。在这里,我们认为合成数据集必须继续在群集算法的评估中发挥重要作用,但这需要构建适当地涵盖影响聚类算法性能的各种属性集的基准。通过我们的框架,我们展示了重要的角色进化算法,以支持灵活的这种基准,允许简单的修改和扩展。我们说明了我们框架的两种可能用途:(i)〜基准数据的演变与一组手派生属性和(ii)〜生成梳理给定对算法之间的性能差异的数据集。我们的作品对设计集群基准的设计具有足够挑战广泛算法的集群基准,并进一步了解特定方法的优势和弱点。
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克里斯·兰顿(Chris Langton)所阐明的人工生命研究的目标是“通过将生活与我们的生活定位在更大的生活中,为理论生物学做出贡献.1)。人工进化系统中对开放式进化的研究和追求证明了这一目标。但是,开放式进化研究受到两个基本问题的阻碍。在人工进化系统中复制开放式的斗争,以及我们只有一个系统(遗传进化)来汲取灵感的事实。在这里,我们认为,文化进化不仅应视为开放式进化系统的另一个现实世界的例子,而且文化进化中看到的独特品质为我们提供了一个新的观点,我们可以从中评估,我们可以评估,我们可以评估,这是我们可以评估的基本属性。并询问有关开放式进化系统的新问题,尤其是关于发展的开放性和从边界到无限进化的过渡。在这里,我们提供了文化作为进化系统的概述,强调了人类文化进化为开放式进化系统的有趣案例,并在(进化)开放式进化的框架下将文化进化化。我们继续提供一组新问题,一旦我们考虑了开放式演变框架内的文化演变,并引入了新见解,我们可能会因为询问这些信息而获得有关进化的开放性的新见解。问题。
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我们将仔细研究道德,并尝试以可能成为工具的抽象属性的形式提取见解。我们想将道德与游戏联系起来,谈论道德的表现,将好奇心引入竞争和协调良好的伦理学之间的相互作用,并提供可能统一实体汇总的可能发展的看法。所有这些都是由计算复杂性造成的长阴影,这对游戏来说是负面的。该分析是寻找建模方面的第一步,这些方面可能在AI伦理中用于将现代AI系统整合到人类社会中。
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在本文中,我们提出了一种方法,用于预测社交媒体对等体之间的信任链接,其中一个是在多识别信任建模的人工智能面积。特别是,我们提出了一种数据驱动的多面信任信任建模,该信任建模包括许多不同的特征以进行全面分析。我们专注于展示类似用户的聚类如何实现关键新功能:支持更个性化的,从而为用户提供更准确的预测。在信任感知项目推荐任务中说明,我们在大yelp数据集的上下文中评估所提出的框架。然后,我们讨论如何提高社交媒体的可信关系的检测可以帮助在最近爆发的社交网络环境中支持在线用户的违法行为和谣言的传播。我们的结论是关于一个特别易受资助的用户基础,老年人的反思,以说明关于用户组的推理价值,期望通过通过数据分析获得的洞察力集成已知偏好的一些未来方向。
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Ongoing risks from climate change have impacted the livelihood of global nomadic communities, and are likely to lead to increased migratory movements in coming years. As a result, mobility considerations are becoming increasingly important in energy systems planning, particularly to achieve energy access in developing countries. Advanced Plug and Play control strategies have been recently developed with such a decentralized framework in mind, more easily allowing for the interconnection of nomadic communities, both to each other and to the main grid. In light of the above, the design and planning strategy of a mobile multi-energy supply system for a nomadic community is investigated in this work. Motivated by the scale and dimensionality of the associated uncertainties, impacting all major design and decision variables over the 30-year planning horizon, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is implemented for the design and planning problem tackled. DRL based solutions are benchmarked against several rigid baseline design options to compare expected performance under uncertainty. The results on a case study for ger communities in Mongolia suggest that mobile nomadic energy systems can be both technically and economically feasible, particularly when considering flexibility, although the degree of spatial dispersion among households is an important limiting factor. Key economic, sustainability and resilience indicators such as Cost, Equivalent Emissions and Total Unmet Load are measured, suggesting potential improvements compared to available baselines of up to 25%, 67% and 76%, respectively. Finally, the decomposition of values of flexibility and plug and play operation is presented using a variation of real options theory, with important implications for both nomadic communities and policymakers focused on enabling their energy access.
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语言是协调问题的强大解决方案:他们提供了稳定的,有关我们所说的单词如何对应于我们头脑中的信仰和意图的共同期望。然而,在变量和非静止社会环境中的语言使用需要语言表征来灵活:旧词在飞行中获取新的临时或合作伙伴特定含义。在本文中,我们介绍了柴(通过推理的连续分层适应),一个分层贝叶斯的协调理论和会议组织,旨在在这两个基本观察之间调和长期张力。我们认为,沟通的中央计算问题不仅仅是传输,如在经典配方中,而是在多个时间尺度上持续学习和适应。合作伙伴特定的共同点迅速出现在数型互动中的社会推论中,而社群范围内的社会公约是稳定的前锋,这些前锋已经抽象出与多个合作伙伴的互动。我们展示了新的实证数据,展示了我们的模型为多个现象提供了对先前账户挑战的计算基础:(1)与同一合作伙伴的重复互动的更有效的参考表达的融合(2)将合作伙伴特定的共同基础转移到陌生人,并(3)交际范围的影响最终会形成。
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Curiosity for machine agents has been a focus of lively research activity. The study of human and animal curiosity, particularly specific curiosity, has unearthed several properties that would offer important benefits for machine learners, but that have not yet been well-explored in machine intelligence. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive, multidisciplinary survey of the field of animal and machine curiosity. As a principal contribution of this work, we use this survey as a foundation to introduce and define what we consider to be five of the most important properties of specific curiosity: 1) directedness towards inostensible referents, 2) cessation when satisfied, 3) voluntary exposure, 4) transience, and 5) coherent long-term learning. As a second main contribution of this work, we show how these properties may be implemented together in a proof-of-concept reinforcement learning agent: we demonstrate how the properties manifest in the behaviour of this agent in a simple non-episodic grid-world environment that includes curiosity-inducing locations and induced targets of curiosity. As we would hope, our example of a computational specific curiosity agent exhibits short-term directed behaviour while updating long-term preferences to adaptively seek out curiosity-inducing situations. This work, therefore, presents a landmark synthesis and translation of specific curiosity to the domain of machine learning and reinforcement learning and provides a novel view into how specific curiosity operates and in the future might be integrated into the behaviour of goal-seeking, decision-making computational agents in complex environments.
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在人类居住的环境中使用机器人的挑战是设计对人类互动引起的扰动且鲁棒的设计行为。我们的想法是用内在动机(IM)拟订机器人,以便它可以处理新的情况,并作为人类的真正社交,因此对人类互动伙伴感兴趣。人机互动(HRI)实验主要关注脚本或远程机器人,这是模拟特性,如IM来控制孤立的行为因素。本文介绍了一个“机器人学家”的研究设计,允许比较自主生成的行为彼此,而且首次评估机器人中基于IM的生成行为的人类感知。我们在受试者内部用户学习(n = 24),参与者与具有不同行为制度的完全自主的Sphero BB8机器人互动:一个实现自适应,本质上动机的行为,另一个是反应性的,但不是自适应。机器人及其行为是故意最小的,以专注于IM诱导的效果。与反应基线行为相比,相互作用后问卷的定量分析表明对尺寸“温暖”的显着提高。温暖被认为是人类社会认知中社会态度形成的主要维度。一种被认为是温暖(友好,值得信赖的)的人体验更积极的社交互动。
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Algorithms that involve both forecasting and optimization are at the core of solutions to many difficult real-world problems, such as in supply chains (inventory optimization), traffic, and in the transition towards carbon-free energy generation in battery/load/production scheduling in sustainable energy systems. Typically, in these scenarios we want to solve an optimization problem that depends on unknown future values, which therefore need to be forecast. As both forecasting and optimization are difficult problems in their own right, relatively few research has been done in this area. This paper presents the findings of the ``IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling," held in 2021. We present a comparison and evaluation of the seven highest-ranked solutions in the competition, to provide researchers with a benchmark problem and to establish the state of the art for this benchmark, with the aim to foster and facilitate research in this area. The competition used data from the Monash Microgrid, as well as weather data and energy market data. It then focused on two main challenges: forecasting renewable energy production and demand, and obtaining an optimal schedule for the activities (lectures) and on-site batteries that lead to the lowest cost of energy. The most accurate forecasts were obtained by gradient-boosted tree and random forest models, and optimization was mostly performed using mixed integer linear and quadratic programming. The winning method predicted different scenarios and optimized over all scenarios jointly using a sample average approximation method.
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